Publications

Research Summary

Sell-Side Analysts and Corporate Spinoffs

This study investigates the information content and accuracy of analyst reports written about companies that are about to undertake equity spinoffs. This research is among the first to provide a detailed look at the extent to which analysts evaluate upcoming... View Details

February 2011
Article

Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings

By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue

We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details

Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry

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July – August 2008
Article

Buy-Side vs. Sell-Side Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Craig James Chapman

We compare the earnings forecast performance of analysts at a large buy-side firm to that of sell-side analysts. Our tests show that the buy-side firm analysts make more optimistic and less accurate forecasts than their counterparts on the sell-side. These performance... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness

March 2011
Article

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details

Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2015
Article

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

By: Lawrence D. Brown, Andrew C. Call, Michael B. Clement and Nathan Y. Sharp

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the... View Details

Keywords: Knowledge Use and Leverage; Investment; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Services Industry

2010
Working Paper

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga

We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research

September 2011
Article

What Drives Sell-Side Analyst Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David A. Maber

We use proprietary data from a major investment bank to investigate factors associated with analysts' annual compensation. We find compensation to be positively related to "All-Star" recognition, investment-banking contributions, the size of analysts' portfolios, and... View Details

Keywords: Investment Banking; Research; Compensation and Benefits; Investment Portfolio; Forecasting and Prediction; Resource Allocation; Status and Position; Business Earnings; Quality; Revenue; Stocks; Voting

Article

End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis

By: Joseph B. Fuller

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Analysis

July 1999
Article

Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter

By: Michael B. Clement

Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Experience and Expertise

December 2007
Article

The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance

By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez

Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

17 Jun 2010
Working Paper Summaries

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

Keywords: by Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart C. Gilson & Belén Villalonga

2021
Article

An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services

By: David A. Maber, Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy

This paper uses a proprietary panel dataset to categorize and quantify the activities that sell-side brokerage analysts use to build and sustain their network of buy-side client relations. We then examine the marginal impact of these activities on key analyst outcome... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Ratings; Brokerage Commissions; Earnings Forecasts

18 Oct 2004
Research & Ideas

The Bias of Wall Street Analysts

up until the point (and even after) the company tumbled off a cliff. Indeed, HBS professor Mark Bradshaw and collaborators Scott Richardson and Richard Sloan found that pre-year 2000 forecasts and recommendations done by Wall Street... View Details

Keywords: by Ann Cullen; Financial Services

2003
Article

The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts

By: Michael B. Clement, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson

We identify characteristics of financial analysts that have been shown to be associated with relative forecast accuracy in the United States and examine these characteristics within 10 countries. We find that relative forecast accuracy is influenced by years of... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

(With Emilie Feldman and Belen Villalonga) This article investigates how securities analysts help investors understand the value of diversification. By studying the research that analysts produce about companies that have announced corporate spin-offs, we gain... View Details

September 2010
Article

Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States