Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2009 (Revised November 2016)
Case

Washington Mutual's Covered Bonds

By: Daniel Baird Bergstresser, Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Washington Mutual issued 6 billion euro of covered bonds in 2006. The objective of the case is to ask whether these bonds are mispriced in late 2008. The case is set in September 2008, and Washington Mutual is facing considerable distress due to mounting losses in its... View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Mortgages; Price; Banking Industry; United States

2009
Chapter

Becoming the Lamp Bearer: The Emerging Roles of the Chief Risk Officer

By: Anette Mikes

Enterprise risk management, under the leadership of chief risk officers (CROs), has the promise to bring enterprise-wide risks, which threaten the achievement of the firm's strategic objectives, into the open and under control. Its organizational significance is... View Details

Keywords: Governance Controls; Managerial Roles; Risk Management; Business Processes; Risk and Uncertainty

14 Jul 2009
First Look

First Look: July 14

firms face market uncertainty about consumers' preferences for innovation on two product attributes and technology uncertainty about the success of their R&D investments. Firms can conduct costly market... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Information Dispersion and Auction Prices

Keywords: by Pai-Ling Yin; Technology; Web Services

December 2012 (Revised February 2014)
Case

Crafting a Founder Agreement at HealthCraft

By: Noam Wasserman, Janet Kraus and Yael Braid

HealthCraft's three founders are about to craft their founding agreement and split the equity among themselves. Uncertainty lingers over each member's future contributions, though—how is the team to devise a durable and effective split? Ever since consultant Kevin... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurs; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Industry

2011
Other Unpublished Work

Innovation and Regulative Ambiguities in the U.S. Geothermal Power Sector

By: Shon R. Hiatt

While prior institutional research has focused on institutional ambiguity as an exogenous condition under which organizations exercise agency, this study examines the state's exercise of agency in making legal institutions more or less ambiguous and its impact on... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Policy; Energy Sources; Innovation and Invention; Energy Industry; United States

Reza R. Satchu

Reza Satchu is a Senior Lecturer in the Entrepreneurship Management Unit at the Harvard Business School where he teaches The Entrepreneurial Manager, The Founder Mindset and Founder Launch. He is also the Founder, Managing Partner and majority shareholder of... View Details

September 2006 (Revised March 2012)
Case

Fritidsresor Under Pressure (A): The First 10 Hours

By: Joshua D. Margolis, Vincent Marie Dessain and Anders Sjoman

When a tsunami hit Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004, the leadership team at a Swedish tour company must manage a devastating crisis affecting thousands of its customers and employees in Thailand. Documents the challenges the company faced in the first ten hours of... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Crisis Management; Natural Disasters; Tourism Industry; Thailand; Sweden

July 2000
Background Note

Industry Transformation

By: Michael E. Porter and Jan W. Rivkin

One of the steepest challenges a strategist faces is to navigate his or her company through a period of industry transformation--an era of rapid and wholesale changes in industry structure. This note considers how periods of transformation typically unfold. It then... View Details

Keywords: Technological Innovation; Management; Management Practices and Processes; Industry Growth; Industry Structures; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry

December 2011
Article

Manager-Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers

By: Francois Brochet, Lucile Faurel and Sarah McVay

We investigate how managers contribute to the provision of earnings guidance by examining the association between top executive turnovers and guidance. Although firm and industry characteristics are important determinants of guidance, we conclude that CEOs participate... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Teams; Policy; Decisions; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership

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September 2023 (Revised September 2024)
Case

IBJ, Inc. (A): Seeking Matrimony in Japan

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Akiko Saito

In March 2020, Shigeru Ishizaka, founder and CEO of IBJ, Inc., Japan's largest marriage matching service provider, faced a critical decision regarding the company’s planned ¥3.5 billion (US$32.8 million) acquisition of competitor ZWEI Co., Ltd. IBJ, founded in 2006,... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Model; Corporate Strategy; Value

October 2016
Case

Moshe Kahlon: Telecommunications Reform and Competition in Israel's Cellular Market (A)

By: Joshua Margolis, Amram Migdal and Kerry Herman

The case addresses reforms to regulations in Israel’s telecommunications industry initiated and implemented under the leadership of Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon in 2009-2010. The case highlights the challenges faced by a politician attempting to institute... View Details

November 2012
Case

Tracy Palandjian at Social Finance US (A)

By: Alnoor Ebrahim, Catherine Clark and Beth Bafford

It had been eighteen months since Tracy Palandjian had left her position as a managing director at The Parthenon Group to start an ambitious venture called Social Finance US. With a mission "to mobilize investment capital to drive social change," her new organization... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Social Enterprise; Social Entrepreneurship; Personal Development and Career

2011
Working Paper

Matthew: Effect or Fable?

In a market context, a status effect occurs when actors are accorded differential recognition for their efforts depending on their location in a status ordering, holding constant the quality of these efforts. In practice, because it is very difficult to measure... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Status and Position; Measurement and Metrics; Quality

February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
Supplement

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)

By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Global Range; Crisis Management; Disruption

2017
Working Paper

Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This... View Details

Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits

Article

Incorporating Interpretable Output Constraints in Bayesian Neural Networks

By: Wanqian Yang, Lars Lorch, Moritz Graule, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Finale Doshi-Velez

Domains where supervised models are deployed often come with task-specific constraints, such as prior expert knowledge on the ground-truth function, or desiderata like safety and fairness. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework for reasoning with such constraints... View Details

October 1992
Case

Charles River Jazz Festival

Charles River Jazz Festival must decide whether to press a compact disk (CD) of Friday's jazz performance for sale on Saturday and Sunday. The idea to press CDs is novel, so there is considerable uncertainty about how receptive customers will be. The festival must... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Making

Article

Strategic Management of Product Recovery

By: Michael W. Toffel

Manufacturers of an expanding range of durable products are facing regulatory and market pressures to manage the products they manufactured upon their end of life (EOL). In part, this attention is motivated by a growing number of countries—especially across Europe and... View Details

Keywords: Product; Environmental Sustainability; Cost Management; Government Legislation; Logistics; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; Europe; Asia; United States

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March 27, 2013
Article

Downton Abbey: Real Life Lessons for Trust & Estate Advisors

By: Josh Baron and Devin Bird

The article discusses how the TV series "Downton Abbey" reflects challenges and opportunities faced by business families. The show's storyline, centered around the aristocratic Crawley family and their estate, parallels real-world situations where business families... View Details

Keywords: Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Management Succession; Family Ownership; Adaptation; Transition

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