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- All HBS Web (1,031)
- Faculty Publications (351)
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- 15 May 2007
- First Look
First Look: May 15, 2007
economic models predict that they do not systematically differ. With online grocery data, we show that people are decreasingly impatient the further in the future their choices will take effect. In general,... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 08 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 8, 2006
predictions of several models of learning and related models. We find that equilibrium becomes a better predictor of observed play as the players become more experienced, but that simple View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 21 Aug 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018
horizons. We also demonstrate that nonlinear boosting models with feature selection, such as random forests, perform significantly better than traditional linear models. The best-performing method (random forest) yields an out-of-sample... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- 05 Dec 2017
- First Look
First Look at New Research and Ideas, December 5, 2017
that addresses part of that challenge—with a particular focus on predicting customer churn. However, several other equally important aspects of managing retention have not received similar level of attention, leaving many managerial... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- Article
Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data
By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend
This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction
Hyslop, Dean, and Wilbur Townsend. "Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38, no. 2 (2020).
- September 2011
- Article
Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas
By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States
Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
- 13 Nov 2019
- Research & Ideas
Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet
the model cannot systematically predict is much larger. In other words, there’s lots of noise in human behavior.” Instead of working to create the virtual market, marketers and marketing researchers are... View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
- July 2010 (Revised December 2011)
- Background Note
Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
Pricing is one of the most difficult decisions marketers make and the one with the most direct and immediate impact on the firm's financial position. This toolkit will introduce the fundamental terminology and calculations associated with pricing and profitability... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Profit; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Measurement and Metrics; Strategic Planning; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Pricing and Profitability Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 511-028, July 2010. (Revised December 2011.)
- 02 Feb 2010
- First Look
First Look: Feb. 2
will correspond to the technical patterns of dependency in the system under development. Thus the hypothesis predicts that developers with few or no organizational linkages will design independent system components, while developers with... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 18 Mar 2024
- Research & Ideas
When It Comes to Climate Regulation, Energy Companies Take a More Nuanced View
Common wisdom holds that oil and gas companies, electric utilities, and other industries known for their large carbon emissions generally oppose clean energy policies. Now, a study of corporate advocacy spanning 30 years reveals that many companies are more flexible... View Details
- 04 Jun 2024
- Research & Ideas
Navigating Consumer Data Privacy in an AI World
Being proactive about how you handle data and run your models to protect privacy isn't just smart—it's essential. It’s really the best way to go about it. “There's a growing awareness among customers and users about how their data is... View Details
- 18 Jul 2023
- Research & Ideas
Will Global Demand for Oil Peak This Decade?
Is the globe’s thirst for oil finally topping out? A major international energy watcher says yes, predicting last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade.... View Details
- 08 Mar 2021
- In Practice
COVID Killed the Traditional Workplace. What Should Companies Do Now?
A year ago, COVID-19 forced many companies to send employees home—often with a laptop and a prayer. Now, with COVID cases subsiding and vaccinations rising, the prospect of returning to old office routines appears more possible. But will employees want to flock back to... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman
- 12 May 2009
- First Look
First Look: May 12, 2009
Some investors want the company to license its technology to semiconductor companies. Others want the company to become a "lableless" semiconductor company producing and selling its own products. The question for the team at Nantero is, what View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 10 May 2011
- First Look
First Look: May 10
information environment relating to IFRS adoption that is more likely to reflect changes in comparability versus information quality. If IFRS adoption improves financial statement comparability across firms, we predict this should reduce... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- August 2021
- Supplement
Coats: Supply Chain Challenges: Spreadsheet Supplement
By: Willy C. Shih
Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
- 16 Nov 2010
- First Look
First Look: November 16, 2010
Publication:Journal of Public Economics (forthcoming) Abstract It is often difficult for donors to predict the value of charitable giving because they know little about the persons who receive their help. This concern is particularly... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 19 Apr 2010
- Research & Ideas
The History of Beauty
largest, most professionally managed global companies find it hard to predict the success of product launches, and can stumble badly. One estimate is that 90 percent of new fragrance launches fail. Getting the word out to consumers, and... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 10 Jun 2008
- First Look
First Look: June 10, 2008
managers will use the discretion given by such estimates to convey private information on future cash flows, while agency theory predicts managers will use the discretion opportunistically. We test these alternative hypotheses using a... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace