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      ForecastsRemove Forecasts →

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      • May 2007 (Revised April 2008)
      • Case

      Tiger-Tread

      By: Rohit Deshpande and Richard Cardozo
      Describes an innovative product launch for which a marketing plan and a breakeven analysis are needed. To introduce students to breakeven analysis and the essentials of developing a marketing plan. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Planning
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      Deshpande, Rohit, and Richard Cardozo. "Tiger-Tread." Harvard Business School Case 507-077, May 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

      By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
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      Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-056, March 2007.
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
      • February 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Supplement

      Multifactor Models (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Cost of Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Funds; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Performance Evaluation
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      Baker, Malcolm P. "Multifactor Models (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 207-710, February 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • January 2007 (Revised April 2008)
      • Case

      The Case of the Unidentified Industries - 2006

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Helps students to understand how the characteristics of a business are reflected in its financial statements. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Business Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Management
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "The Case of the Unidentified Industries - 2006." Harvard Business School Case 207-096, January 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      The Rise of Business Forecasting Agencies in the United States

      By: Walter A. Friedman
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      Friedman, Walter A. "The Rise of Business Forecasting Agencies in the United States." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-045, January 2007.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Warren Persons, the Harvard Economic Service, and the Problems of Forecasting

      By: Walter A. Friedman
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      Friedman, Walter A. "Warren Persons, the Harvard Economic Service, and the Problems of Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-044, January 2007.
      • November 2006 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      Kendall Square Research Corporation

      By: F. Warren McFarlan
      Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993 and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details
      Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry
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      McFarlan, F. Warren. "Kendall Square Research Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 307-010, November 2006. (Revised March 2008.)
      • August 2006
      • Case

      Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream

      By: Noel H. Watson, Steven C. Wheelwright and Brian DeLacey
      Examines capacity forecasting and planning in a complex new product introduction scenario. The introduction at Dreyer's, a large dairy snack manufacturer, involves not only a new product but a new manufacturing process and product package, thus implying a significant... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Development; Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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      Watson, Noel H., Steven C. Wheelwright, and Brian DeLacey. "Dreyer's Slow Churned(TM) Ice Cream." Harvard Business School Case 607-018, August 2006.
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
      • May 2006
      • Case

      Nokia in 2003

      By: Paul M. Healy
      Examines the challenges facing a money manager who owns stock in Nokia, the leading wireless handset provider. Two analysts covering the stock make very different predictions about the economies of the industry, Nokia's future performance, and stock recommendations.... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Effectiveness; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Electronics Industry
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      Healy, Paul M. "Nokia in 2003." Harvard Business School Case 106-067, May 2006.
      • May 2006
      • Article

      Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models

      By: Scott Neslin, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu and Charlotte Mason
      Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Customers
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      Neslin, Scott, Sunil Gupta, Wagner Kamakura, Junxiang Lu, and Charlotte Mason. "Detection Defection: Measuring and Understanding the Predictive Accuracy of Customer Churn Models." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 43, no. 2 (May 2006): 204–211.
      • February 2006 (Revised September 2007)
      • Background Note

      Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann
      Discusses platform structure in new networked markets, that is, whether a market that exhibits network effects will be served by a single platform or by rival platforms. Defines "platforms" and "platform structure"; describes factors that influence the odds that a... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Internet and the Web
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R. "Winner-Take-All in Networked Markets." Harvard Business School Background Note 806-131, February 2006. (Revised September 2007.)
      • January 2006 (Revised August 2006)
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)

      By: John T. Gourville
      One of the critical tasks in the marketing of new innovations is predicting demand and rates of diffusion for those products. Focuses on four innovative products from different domains. Although one can speculate on the scope and rate of diffusion for each of these... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
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      Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2006)." Harvard Business School Case 506-050, January 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
      • October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
      • Background Note

      Calculating Free Cash Flows

      By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
      Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
      • August 2005 (Revised September 2006)
      • Case

      Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music and Math

      By: Anita Elberse, Jehoshua Eliashberg and Julian Villanueva
      In 2003, Mike McCready, CEO of Barcelona-based Polyphonic HMI, was preparing to launch an artificial intelligence tool that could create significant value for music businesses. The technology, referred to as Hit Song Science (HSS), analyzed the mathematical... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Music Entertainment; Business History; Leadership; Marketing Strategy; Strategic Planning; Problems and Challenges; Mathematical Methods; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Julian Villanueva. "Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music and Math." Harvard Business School Case 506-009, August 2005. (Revised September 2006.) (Spanish version also available.)
      • June 2005
      • Article

      Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity; Real Exchange Rate; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Asset Pricing; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ramadorai. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows." Journal of Finance 60, no. 3 (June 2005): 1535–1566. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 9101, August 2002 and Harvard Business School Working Paper no. 04-036, December 2003.)
      • June 2005
      • Article

      Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment

      By: Laura Alfaro
      This paper further tests Romer's (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott's (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economy; Currency Exchange Rate; Developing Countries and Economies; Inflation and Deflation
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      Alfaro, Laura. "Inflation, Openness, and Exchange Rate Regimes: The Quest for Short-Term Commitment." Journal of Development Economics 77, no. 1 (June 2005): 229–249.
      • May 2005
      • Exercise

      Forecasting the Adoption of E-books

      By: Elie Ofek
      Gives students an opportunity to understand the challenges inherent in forecasting the diffusions of innovations. Provides data for forecasting the adoption of electronic books. Students are encouraged to use the Bass Model framework, while being cognizant of its... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Books; Analytics and Data Science; Product Launch; Internet and the Web; Technology Adoption
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of E-books." Harvard Business School Exercise 505-063, May 2005.
      • April 2005
      • Case

      Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron
      Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details
      Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David Kiron. "Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 105-067, April 2005.
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