Publications

SSRN

30 Jun 2016
Working Paper Summaries

The Dyadic Ties of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment

Keywords: by Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong, and Gwen Yu; Financial Services

15 Jun 2004
Conference Presentation

What is the Best Measure of Adiposity for Predicting Testosterone? Results from the Massachusetts Male Aging Study

By: William B. Simpson, Frances J. Hayes, Andre B. Araujo and John B. McKinlay

Keywords: Measurement and Metrics; Health Testing and Trials; Age Characteristics; Gender Characteristics; Massachusetts

June 18, 2014
Blog Post

How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance

By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim

Keywords: Forecast; Short-termism; Sustainability; Earnings Management; Competitive Advantage

04 Dec 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Pathways to Materiality: How Sustainability Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors

Keywords: by Jean Rogers and George Serafeim

April–May 2017
Article

Career Concerns of Banking Analysts

By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Shan Wu

We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Forecasts; Analysts; Investment Recommendations; Career Advancement; Career Management; Labor Mobility; Labor Market; Prejudice and Bias; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Banking

SSRN

July 2019
Article

I Know Why You Voted for Trump: (Over)inferring Motives Based on Choice

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Ioannis Evangelidis

People often speculate about why others make the choices they do. This paper investigates how such inferences are formed as a function of what is chosen. Specifically, when observers encounter someone else's choice (e.g., of political candidate), they use the chosen... View Details

Keywords: Self-other Difference; Social Perception; Inference-making; Preferences; Consumer Behavior; Prediction; Prediction Error; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

Research Summary

Overview

Associate Professor Yael Grushka-Cockayne's research and teaching activities focus on data science, forecasting, project management, and behavioral decision-making. View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Project Management; Forecasting; Behavior And Behavioral Decision Making

April 2013
Case

Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble

By: Thomas H. Davenport, Marco Iansiti and Alain Serels

Senior management at P&G has put a strong emphasis on using data to make "better, smarter, real-time business decisions." The Global Business Services (GBS) organization has developed tools, systems and processes to provide managers throughout P&G with direct access to... View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Data Management; Forecasting; Shared Services; Procter ＆ Gamble; Laundry Detergent; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Mathematical Methods; Consumer Products Industry; North America

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Article

Getting the Most Out of Giving: Concretely Framing a Prosocial Goal Maximizes Happiness

By: Melanie Rudd, Jennifer Aaker and Michael I. Norton

Across six field and laboratory experiments, participants assigned a more concretely-framed prosocial goal (e.g., making someone smile or increasing recycling) felt happier and reported creating greater personal happiness after performing a goal-directed act of... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Goal Framing; Affective Forecasting; Goals and Objectives; Happiness; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving

September 2010
Supplement

New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

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December 2013
Article

Legislating Stock Prices

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details

Keywords: Legislator Incentives; Voting; Return Predictability; Lobbying; Motivation and Incentives; Government Legislation; Stocks

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Article

Algorithms Need Managers, Too

By: Michael Luca, Jon Kleinberg and Sendhil Mullainathan

Algorithms are powerful predictive tools, but they can run amok when not applied properly. Consider what often happens with social media sites. Today many use algorithms to decide which ads and links to show users. But when these algorithms focus too narrowly on... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Algorithms; Predictive Analytics; Management; Big Data; Analytics and Data Science

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April 2012
Article

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Stock Shares; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Policy; Profit

08 Nov 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Managers' Cultural Background and Disclosure Attributes

Keywords: by Francois Brochet, Gregory S. Miller, Patricia Naranjo, and Gwen Yu

Winter 2022
Article

Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton

The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business

2007
Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman

A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career

2010
Other Unpublished Work

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation