Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

October 2008 (Revised December 2010)
Case

Intel NBI: Intel Corporation's New Business Initiatives (A)

By: Willy C. Shih and Thomas Thurston

For Intel Corporation, the processes and priorities that have made it so successful are difficult to overcome as the company tries to diversify away from its core. The case examines the history and evolution of the New Business Initiatives (NBI) group, as the leader... View Details

Keywords: Business Divisions; Transition; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business History; Management Practices and Processes; Resource Allocation; Organizational Structure; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty

July 1998
Case

Quality Furniture Co.

By: David F. Hawkins and Norman Bartczak

A supplier is trying to determine if credit should be extended to two customers whose circumstances have changed. 99U per Case Records. View Details

Keywords: Credit; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Manufacturing Industry

March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

June 2011
Article

Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work

By: J. R. Detert and Amy C. Edmondson

This article examines, in a series of four studies, the nature and impact of implicit voice theories-largely taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. In Study 1, qualitative data from 190 interviews conducted in a... View Details

Keywords: Spoken Communication; Interpersonal Communication; Employees; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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July 2000 (Revised September 2005)
Case

BMG Entertainment

By: Jan W. Rivkin and Gerrit Meier

As dramatic changes in technology and customer tastes roil the music industry, the top executives of BMG Entertainment, one of the world's largest record companies, must decide how to organize for digital distribution of music. This case includes a brief history of the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Distribution Channels; Organizational Structure; Technological Innovation; Industry Structures; Customer Focus and Relationships; Growth and Development Strategy; Information Technology; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

July 1997 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Chase Manhattan Corporation: The Making of America's Largest Bank

By: Stuart C. Gilson and Cedric Escalle

Chase Bank and Chemical Bank intend to merge, producing the largest commercial bank in the United States, the fourth largest in the world. Projected financial benefits under the merger reflect significant planned reduction in operating costs, including 17,000 employee... View Details

Keywords: Commercial Banking; Profit; Corporate Strategy; Value Creation; Restructuring; Negotiation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty; Resignation and Termination; Revenue; Banking Industry; United States

November 2001
Case

Lakeside

By: Michael A. Wheeler

This case presents an ethical choice: How should a prospective buyer respond when a homeowner quotes a price that the buyer knows is significantly below market value? The case describes a private transaction in which the prospective seller is fully competent mentally... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Price; Negotiation Process; Property; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry

November 2022
Article

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton

Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details

Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception

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April 1999 (Revised October 2001)
Case

Motive Communications

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart, William W Chan and Find Findsen

The founders of Motive Communications, Inc., a recent start-up dedicated to reinventing the support chain involved in the delivery of information technology support services, put in place a development process hinged on extensive customer feedback. As part of this, a... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology Industry

November 1993 (Revised April 2007)
Case

Continental Airlines--1992 (Abridged)

By: Stuart C. Gilson

The CEO is preparing a recommendation to the board regarding several potential outside investments in the company, which is currently operating in bankruptcy. In making his decision, the CEO has to consider various financial and strategic factors, including possible... View Details

Keywords: Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Investment; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Aerospace Industry; United States

March 2004 (Revised February 2006)
Case

Salt Lake Organizing Committee, The: 2002 Olympics

By: H. Kent Bowen, Bryce LaPierre and Courtney Purrington

After two and a half years of effort, Fraser Bullock, COO of the 2002 Winter Olympics, faced projected deficits and post-9/11 security requirements only five months before the opening ceremony. Summarizes the organizational structure and processes put in place by... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Knowledge Dissemination; Business or Company Management; Managerial Roles; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Planning; Practice; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Sports; System

04 Sep 2007
Research & Ideas

Jumpstarting Innovation: Using Disruption to Your Advantage

required. Define a plan for evolving strategy and capabilities to exploit long-term value potential. Implement to reduce risk and manage uncertainty: Successful entrepreneurs... View Details

Keywords: by Lynda M. Applegate

2010
Working Paper

Dynamically Integrating Knowledge in Teams: Transforming Resources into Performance

By: Heidi K. Gardner, Francesca Gino and Bradley R. Staats

In knowledge-based environments, teams must develop a systematic approach to integrating knowledge resources throughout the course of projects in order to perform effectively. Yet, many teams fail to do so. Drawing on the resource-based view of the firm, we examine how... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Performance Effectiveness; Quality; Groups and Teams; Risk and Uncertainty; Familiarity

June 2011
Article

Segmenting the Base of the Pyramid

By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Michael Chu and Djorjiji Petkoski

The bottom of the economic pyramid is a risky place for business, but decent profits can be made there if companies link their financial success with their constituencies' well-being. To do that effectively, you must understand the nuances of people's daily lives, say... View Details

Keywords: International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Human Needs; Income; Poverty; Profit; Relationships; Economics; Segmentation

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January 2021
Case

The FIRE Savings Calculator

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry

November 1983
Article

On the Problems of Applying Ramsey Pricing to the Railroad Industry with Uncertain Demand Elasticities

By: William B. Tye and Dutch Leonard

Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Rail Industry

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May 2010
Column

Block-by-Blockbuster Innovation

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter

Executives often find themselves debating the merits of incremental innovations versus game-changers, but that's a false dichotomy, says HBR columnist Rosabeth Moss Kanter. Even if a company is lucky enough to come up with the next Kindle, Swiffer, or smartphone,... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Management; Resource Allocation; Product; Business Processes; Risk and Uncertainty

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September 2007 (Revised February 2010)
Case

Compass Box Whisky Company

Compass Box Whisky Company is facing a changing supply situation and is evaluating switching to a business model with high inventory and long lead times. The company must consider what the change will mean for operations, risk, and measuring profitability. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Business Model; Profit; Product; Supply Chain; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty

December 2023
Case

The American Bully XL

By: Robin Greenwood, Richard S. Ruback, Johnathan Sun and Robert Ialenti

The American Bully XL, first introduced to the United Kingdom around 2014, had been held responsible for a disproportionate share of both dog-related attacks and deaths. The case discusses the announcement, in October 2023, that the dog breed would be added to a list... View Details

Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government Administration; Laws and Statutes; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom

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