Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

June 2005 (Revised January 2006)
Case

Investment Policy at the Hewlett Foundation (2005)

By: Luis M. Viceira

In early January 2005, Laurance Hoagland Jr., VP and CIO of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (HF), and his investment team met to finish their recommendations to the HF Investment Committee for a new asset allocation policy for the foundation's investment... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Equity; Globalization; Investment; Property; Risk Management; Asset Management; Financial Services Industry

September 1994 (Revised March 1995)
Case

RailTex, Inc. (A)

By: Norman A. Berg and James Weber

By 1992, RailTex, Inc., had acquired and was operating 23 geographically separate short-line railroads (feeder lines for larger railroads) in Mexico, Canada, and primarily in the United States. Founded in 1977 with $500,000 of capital as a railcar leasing company, the... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Business Divisions; Cost Management; Growth and Development; Growth and Development Strategy; Management Systems; Product Marketing; Logistics; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation

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March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

January 1988 (Revised March 1995)
Supplement

Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (C1)

By: David A. Garvin

To follow Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (B2). The division has just received a request for dramatically increased production. If it complies with the request, it will have to expedite production, override the MRP II system and the planned schedule. Should... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Production; Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Situation or Environment; System

January 1998 (Revised May 1999)
Case

General Scanning, Inc. (A)

By: H. Kent Bowen, Sean McClenaghan and Charles Tillen

General Scanning, Inc. was founded by Jean Montagu and Pierre Brosens, two MIT mechanical engineers with an interest in developing innovative products based on the early application of lasers. They invented proprietary technology for laser beam positioning and scanning... View Details

Keywords: Transition; Entrepreneurship; Management Practices and Processes; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Commercialization; Manufacturing Industry

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November 1993 (Revised April 2007)
Case

Continental Airlines--1992 (Abridged)

By: Stuart C. Gilson

The CEO is preparing a recommendation to the board regarding several potential outside investments in the company, which is currently operating in bankruptcy. In making his decision, the CEO has to consider various financial and strategic factors, including possible... View Details

Keywords: Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Investment; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Aerospace Industry; United States

June 2011
Article

Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work

By: J. R. Detert and Amy C. Edmondson

This article examines, in a series of four studies, the nature and impact of implicit voice theories-largely taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. In Study 1, qualitative data from 190 interviews conducted in a... View Details

Keywords: Spoken Communication; Interpersonal Communication; Employees; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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02 Mar 2018
Op-Ed

Op-Ed: Trump’s Tariffs Could Harm Allies as Much as Opponents

After many on and off signals, President Donald Trump pulled the trigger March 1 and announced he would slap long-term duties on steel (25 percent) and aluminum (10 percent)... View Details

Keywords: by Dante Roscini; Steel; Manufacturing

May 2004 (Revised April 2006)
Case

Ultra: The Quest for Leadership (A)

By: Dwight B. Crane and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho

Ultra is one of a small group of competing Brazilian petrochemical companies, each of which buys raw material and is a minority owner of Copene, a "cracking" company that provides ethylene and other materials. Because of an industry restructuring, an auction of shares... View Details

Keywords: Capital; Capital Budgeting; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Industry Structures; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Valuation; Bids and Bidding; Economy; Ownership Stake; Chemical Industry; Brazil

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January 2021
Case

The FIRE Savings Calculator

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry

March 2004 (Revised February 2006)
Case

Salt Lake Organizing Committee, The: 2002 Olympics

By: H. Kent Bowen, Bryce LaPierre and Courtney Purrington

After two and a half years of effort, Fraser Bullock, COO of the 2002 Winter Olympics, faced projected deficits and post-9/11 security requirements only five months before the opening ceremony. Summarizes the organizational structure and processes put in place by... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Knowledge Dissemination; Business or Company Management; Managerial Roles; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Planning; Practice; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Sports; System

December 1, 2023
Article

When Charismatic CEOs Are an Asset—and When They’re a Liability

By: Nitin Nohria

Starting in the 1980s, a generation of larger-than-life CEOs became full-blown celebrity, but over time, research suggested that charismatic CEOs tended to have drawbacks at leaders. However, charisma can be especially useful in two business concepts with big unknowns:... View Details

Keywords: Leadership Style; Business Startups; Risk and Uncertainty; Organizational Change and Adaptation

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January 1992
Teaching Note

Allen Distribution Company (TN)

By: W. Carl Kester

Teaching Note for (9-201-016). View Details

Keywords: Credit; Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Service Industry

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

November 2001
Case

Lakeside

By: Michael A. Wheeler

This case presents an ethical choice: How should a prospective buyer respond when a homeowner quotes a price that the buyer knows is significantly below market value? The case describes a private transaction in which the prospective seller is fully competent mentally... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Price; Negotiation Process; Property; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry

01 Nov 2024
In Practice

Layoffs Surging in a Strong Economy? Advice for Navigating Uncertain Times

“Leaving Intuit Discussion.” That ended the uncertainty of who was and was not being laid off. Financial support was fair, with layoffs timed to enable employee vesting schedules for company stock View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Technology; Information Technology

April 1999 (Revised October 2001)
Case

Motive Communications

By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart, William W Chan and Find Findsen

The founders of Motive Communications, Inc., a recent start-up dedicated to reinventing the support chain involved in the delivery of information technology support services, put in place a development process hinged on extensive customer feedback. As part of this, a... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology Industry

November 2022
Article

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton

Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details

Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception

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October 2019 (Revised April 2020)
Background Note

Note on Funding Deep Tech Startups

By: Karim Lakhani, Peter Barrett and Noubar Afeyan

This Background Note provides essential information on funding deep technologies—those technologies that were inherently capital intensive, time consuming, risky, and potentially disruptive. Both dilutive and non-dilutive sources of investment are highlighted, along... View Details

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