Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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October 2019 (Revised April 2020)
Background Note

Note on Funding Deep Tech Startups

By: Karim Lakhani, Peter Barrett and Noubar Afeyan

This Background Note provides essential information on funding deep technologies—those technologies that were inherently capital intensive, time consuming, risky, and potentially disruptive. Both dilutive and non-dilutive sources of investment are highlighted, along... View Details

May 2011 (Revised July 2012)
Exercise

Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Merck

By: Guhan Subramanian and Rhea Ghosh

This two-party negotiation exercise features a real-life dispute between Merck and Johnson & Johnson regarding European distribution rights to two highly lucrative drugs. View Details

Keywords: Price; Rights; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Deal; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Pharmaceutical Industry

June 2011
Article

Segmenting the Base of the Pyramid

By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Michael Chu and Djorjiji Petkoski

The bottom of the economic pyramid is a risky place for business, but decent profits can be made there if companies link their financial success with their constituencies' well-being. To do that effectively, you must understand the nuances of people's daily lives, say... View Details

Keywords: International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Value Creation; Human Needs; Income; Poverty; Profit; Relationships; Economics; Segmentation

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June 2024
Case

Tremblant Capital: Launching an Active ETF

By: Robin Greenwood, Luis M. Viceira and Robert Ialenti

The case highlights deliberations led by Brett Barakett, CEO and chief investment officer of Tremblant Capital, just months prior to launching an actively managed ETF, Tremblant Global (TOGA). However, his team continued to have reservations around the launch. On the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Product Launch; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

January 2003 (Revised March 2004)
Case

Silverado (A)

By: Jan W. Rivkin and Charles J. Woodard

Silverado has raised $50 million and launched its first product: an Internet-based trivia game with innovative software. In a highly uncertain environment, the young management team must decide whether to continue developing the product and whether to branch out into... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Strategic Planning; Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Product Launch; Business Strategy; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

March 2009 (Revised June 2011)
Case

The Guardian: Transition to the Online World

By: David J. Collis, Peter W. Olson and Mary Furey

The Guardian had been an early innovator in online newspapers and had not only become the leading U.K. newspaper web site, but was making strides with audiences outside of the U.K. However, The Guardian had been losing money since 2000, and, in spite of the relative... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Revenue; Newspapers; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Online Technology; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry; United Kingdom

September 2003 (Revised January 2004)
Case

Giant Cinema

By: Malcolm P. Baker, Richard S. Ruback, Erik Stafford and Kathleen Luchs

The owner of Giant Cinema must decide whether to invest in a digital projector, a new technology for screening films, or purchase a traditional projector. The impact of the new technology is uncertain, and the case describes probabilities for different outcomes that... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Film Entertainment; Technology Adoption; Financial Strategy; Investment; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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April 1996 (Revised March 1998)
Case

Lex Service PLC-- Cost of Capital

By: W. Carl Kester and Kendall Backstrand

Lex Service company has grown into a large multidivisional company with a substantial capital budget. In 1993, the board was reviewing its capital budgeting procedures. Specifically, it sought to determine the company's cost of capital and whether it should use... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Equity; Capital Budgeting

November 2007
Article

Standing Out from the Crowd: The Visibility-Enhancing Effects of IPO-related Signals on Alliance Formation by Entrepreneurial Firms

By: Tim Pollock and Ranjay Gulati

In this study, we explore how multiple signals related to entrepreneurial companies at the time of their initial public offering (IPO) influence the firms' ability to acquire non-financial resources over time. Specifically, the study looks at how signals based on... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Initial Public Offering; Investment; Alliances; Risk and Uncertainty; Power and Influence

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February 1988
Case

Crown Cork & Seal Co., Inc. (Condensed)

By: Richard G. Hamermesh and Richard S. Rosenbloom

A condensed version of Crown Cork & Seal Co., Inc. The principal changes are the elimination of details about the early history of the company and condensation of the final section, Outlook for the Future. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Industry Growth; Environmental Sustainability; Business Strategy; Trends; Manufacturing Industry

November 2009 (Revised March 2013)
Case

PureCircle

By: David E. Bell and Aldo Sesia

In December 2008, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) determined that high-purity Rebaudioside A (Reb A), a natural and calorie-free product that a young company named PureCircle manufactured from the Stevia plant, could be used in beverages, foods, and as a... View Details

Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Investment; Globalization; Leadership; Risk Management; Product Launch; Production; Performance Productivity; Business and Shareholder Relations; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

November 2022
Article

Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains

By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton

Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details

Keywords: Opportunities; Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Success; Perception

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January 2014 (Revised June 2014)
Supplement

23andMe: Genetic Testing for Consumers (B)

By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez

Following the FDA's letter in November 2013, which ordered 23andMe to cease sales of its DNA test kits, observers wondered how co-founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, would guide the company in the presence of uncertainty. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Genetics; Crisis Management; Health Care and Treatment; Product Development; Business and Government Relations; Biotechnology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

23 Mar 2020
Research & Ideas

Product Disasters Can Be Fertile Ground for Innovation

innovation by creating uncertainty and convince risk-averse companies to pull back on R&D. When a bicyclist was killed by an Uber autonomous car in Arizona in 2018, for example, the company suspended the... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Health; Medical Devices & Supplies

March 2008
Article

Functional Imaging of Decision Conflict

By: J. B. Pochon, Jason Riis, A. Sanfey, L. Nystrom and J. D. Cohen

Decision conflict occurs when people feel uncertain as to which option to choose from a set of similarly attractive (or unattractive) options, with many studies demonstrating that this conflict can lead to suboptimal decision making. In this article, we investigate the... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Judgments; Risk and Uncertainty; Science; Conflict and Resolution; Perception

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October 2012
Case

Monsanto

By: Ray A. Goldberg

Monsanto CEO Hugh Grant must guide his global agribusiness technology company into an uncertain future where food security, food safety, sustainability, and climate change will all impact the global food system. View Details

Keywords: Technology; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology; Food; Social and Collaborative Networks; Global Strategy; Agribusiness; Globalized Markets and Industries; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry

December 2017 (Revised January 2018)
Case

Alltech

By: David E. Bell and Natalie Kindred

Alltech was a Lexington, Kentucky–based producer of supplements for animal feed, with revenues of over $2 billion (projected to reach $3 billion in 2018), sales in 120 countries, 5,000 employees, and 100 manufacturing plants worldwide. For nearly four decades, Alltech... View Details

1998
Article

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons

This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow

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2010
Working Paper

Dynamically Integrating Knowledge in Teams: Transforming Resources into Performance

By: Heidi K. Gardner, Francesca Gino and Bradley R. Staats

In knowledge-based environments, teams must develop a systematic approach to integrating knowledge resources throughout the course of projects in order to perform effectively. Yet, many teams fail to do so. Drawing on the resource-based view of the firm, we examine how... View Details

Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Performance Effectiveness; Quality; Groups and Teams; Risk and Uncertainty; Familiarity

October 1996 (Revised April 2004)
Case

Eric Wood (A)

By: Myra M. Hart

Describes the early career of an MBA who went to work in a small business, bought the company, and is now contemplating an acquisition to expand the business. The issues involve personal/business finance and financial risk, as well as valuation and financial... View Details

Keywords: Personal Development and Career; Business Growth and Maturation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Risk and Uncertainty

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