Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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June 2005 (Revised January 2006)
Case

Investment Policy at the Hewlett Foundation (2005)

By: Luis M. Viceira

In early January 2005, Laurance Hoagland Jr., VP and CIO of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (HF), and his investment team met to finish their recommendations to the HF Investment Committee for a new asset allocation policy for the foundation's investment... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Public Equity; Globalization; Investment; Property; Risk Management; Asset Management; Financial Services Industry

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

2008
Book

Predictable Surprises

By: Max Bazerman and Michael D. Watkins

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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Article

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic equilibrium model with tax distortions and government... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return; Development Economics; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Interest Rates; Developing Countries and Economies; Welfare; United States; Brazil

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2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013
Conference Presentation

The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

By: Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Production; Resource Allocation; Groups and Teams; Adaptation; Sports

January 1998 (Revised May 1999)
Case

General Scanning, Inc. (A)

By: H. Kent Bowen, Sean McClenaghan and Charles Tillen

General Scanning, Inc. was founded by Jean Montagu and Pierre Brosens, two MIT mechanical engineers with an interest in developing innovative products based on the early application of lasers. They invented proprietary technology for laser beam positioning and scanning... View Details

Keywords: Transition; Entrepreneurship; Management Practices and Processes; Product Development; Strategic Planning; Research and Development; Risk and Uncertainty; Commercialization; Manufacturing Industry

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January 1988 (Revised March 1995)
Supplement

Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (C1)

By: David A. Garvin

To follow Digital Equipment Corp.: The Endpoint Model (B2). The division has just received a request for dramatically increased production. If it complies with the request, it will have to expedite production, override the MRP II system and the planned schedule. Should... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Production; Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Situation or Environment; System

07 Sep 2019
Op-Ed

Even for Non-Believers, These Are the Next Steps on Climate Change

We can’t know what will happen, but we have a good sense for what might or could happen. Don’t wait for the one moment of indisputable truth to emerge; act on the odds presented in the information available today in sea rise curves, flood maps, View Details

Keywords: by John Macomber

June 2011
Article

Implicit Voice Theories: Taken-for-granted Rules of Self-censorship at Work

By: J. R. Detert and Amy C. Edmondson

This article examines, in a series of four studies, the nature and impact of implicit voice theories-largely taken-for-granted beliefs about when and why speaking up at work is risky or inappropriate. In Study 1, qualitative data from 190 interviews conducted in a... View Details

Keywords: Spoken Communication; Interpersonal Communication; Employees; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior

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22 Mar 2011
First Look

First Look: March 22

and overly restricting access to credit and consumer choice. Nicolas Retsinas, Eric Belsky, and their colleagues aim to stimulate debate based on analysis of the opportunities... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 2011 (Revised July 2012)
Exercise

Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Merck

By: Guhan Subramanian and Rhea Ghosh

This two-party negotiation exercise features a real-life dispute between Merck and Johnson & Johnson regarding European distribution rights to two highly lucrative drugs. View Details

Keywords: Price; Rights; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Deal; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Pharmaceutical Industry

January 2003 (Revised March 2004)
Case

Silverado (A)

By: Jan W. Rivkin and Charles J. Woodard

Silverado has raised $50 million and launched its first product: an Internet-based trivia game with innovative software. In a highly uncertain environment, the young management team must decide whether to continue developing the product and whether to branch out into... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Strategic Planning; Internet and the Web; Decision Choices and Conditions; Product Launch; Business Strategy; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

June 2024
Case

Tremblant Capital: Launching an Active ETF

By: Robin Greenwood, Luis M. Viceira and Robert Ialenti

The case highlights deliberations led by Brett Barakett, CEO and chief investment officer of Tremblant Capital, just months prior to launching an actively managed ETF, Tremblant Global (TOGA). However, his team continued to have reservations around the launch. On the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Product Launch; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

March 2004 (Revised February 2006)
Case

Salt Lake Organizing Committee, The: 2002 Olympics

By: H. Kent Bowen, Bryce LaPierre and Courtney Purrington

After two and a half years of effort, Fraser Bullock, COO of the 2002 Winter Olympics, faced projected deficits and post-9/11 security requirements only five months before the opening ceremony. Summarizes the organizational structure and processes put in place by... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Knowledge Dissemination; Business or Company Management; Managerial Roles; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Planning; Practice; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Sports; System

March 2024
Simulation

'Storrowed'

By: Mitchell Weiss

The game was built to accompany "Storrowed": A Generative AI Exercise, available through Harvard Business Publishing. The game adds a timing element to "Storrowed" and enables the teacher to reward teams for strong prompts or penalize teams for believing AI... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty

December 2003 (Revised May 2004)
Case

Blockbuster Inc. & Technological Substitution (A): Achieving Dominance in the Video Rental Industry

Provides a comprehensive background of the video rental industry and home entertainment giant, Blockbuster Inc. Follows the life of Blockbuster Inc. from its first days under founder Wayne Huizenga to its most recent developments under 2003 CEO John Antioco. By looking... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Decisions; Technological Innovation; Competition; Change Management; Economics; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

September 2003 (Revised January 2004)
Case

Giant Cinema

By: Malcolm P. Baker, Richard S. Ruback, Erik Stafford and Kathleen Luchs

The owner of Giant Cinema must decide whether to invest in a digital projector, a new technology for screening films, or purchase a traditional projector. The impact of the new technology is uncertain, and the case describes probabilities for different outcomes that... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Film Entertainment; Technology Adoption; Financial Strategy; Investment; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

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July – August 2011
Article

Managing the Multiple Dimensions of Risk: Part I of a Two-Part Series

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes

Keywords: Management; Risk and Uncertainty

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April 1999
Case

Trexel

Describes an interesting plastics technology and an entrepreneur's attempts to build a business around it. Highlights issues around managing technical and market risk. Teaching purpose: Highlights difficult decisions around building a business off of an unproven... View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Business Startups; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology; Corporate Entrepreneurship

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