Publications

2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

Article

Organizational Beliefs and Managerial Vision

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

Can managers have an impact on their firm that goes beyond their direct actions and decisions? This article shows that a manager with strong beliefs about the right course of action will attract, through sorting in the labor market, employees with similar beliefs. This... View Details

Keywords: Organizations; Goals and Objectives; Decisions; Labor; Markets; Employees; Motivation and Incentives; Recruitment; Risk and Uncertainty; Values and Beliefs

2005
Class Lecture

Organizational Learning in the Face of Ambiguous Threats

By: Amy C. Edmondson, Michael A. Roberto and Richard M.J. Bohmer

Keywords: Learning; Risk and Uncertainty; Crisis Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Groups and Teams

December 2004 (Revised October 2005)
Case

Hasbro Games -- POX (A)

By: David B. Godes and Elie Ofek

Hasbro's newest toy is so unique it requires a unique launch strategy. Comparing traditional media (TV, print) with a non-traditional viral campaign, Matt Collins must weigh the risks and benefits of doing things the way they've always been done or blazing a new path... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits; Marketing Strategy; Advertising Campaigns; Product Launch; Innovation and Invention; Entertainment and Recreation Industry

Article

Strategic Management of Product Recovery

By: Michael W. Toffel

Manufacturers of an expanding range of durable products are facing regulatory and market pressures to manage the products they manufactured upon their end of life (EOL). In part, this attention is motivated by a growing number of countries—especially across Europe and... View Details

Keywords: Product; Environmental Sustainability; Cost Management; Government Legislation; Logistics; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; Europe; Asia; United States

2004
Other Unpublished Work

Capital and Value of Risk Transfer: Presented at Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks (AFIR) Colloquium, Boston, MA, November

By: K. Froot, G. Venter and J. Major

Keywords: Capital; Risk and Uncertainty

September 2004
Article

Estimating the Market Risk Premium

By: E. Scott Mayfield

Keywords: Markets; Risk and Uncertainty

September 2004
Article

Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Expectations; Outcome or Result; Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Failure; Success; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Personal Characteristics; Values and Beliefs; Ethics

September 2004
Article

Trust in Agency

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details

Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty

August 2004 (Revised June 2005)
Case

Fate of the Vasa, The

By: Alan D. MacCormack and Richard Mason

In 1628, the royal warship Vasa was launched. It was Sweden's most expensive naval vessel ever built, costing over 5% of GNP. On its maiden voyage, the ship sailed 1,400 yards in its own harbor, heeled over to the side, and then sank. One third of the 150 crew and... View Details

Keywords: History; Risk and Uncertainty; Technological Innovation; Ship Transportation; Product Design; Technology Adoption; Failure; Business and Government Relations; Product Development; Sweden

August 2004
Article

Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages

May 2004 (Revised April 2006)
Case

Ultra: The Quest for Leadership (A)

By: Dwight B. Crane and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho

Ultra is one of a small group of competing Brazilian petrochemical companies, each of which buys raw material and is a minority owner of Copene, a "cracking" company that provides ethylene and other materials. Because of an industry restructuring, an auction of shares... View Details

Keywords: Capital; Capital Budgeting; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management; Industry Structures; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Valuation; Bids and Bidding; Economy; Ownership Stake; Chemical Industry; Brazil

March 2004 (Revised February 2006)
Case

Salt Lake Organizing Committee, The: 2002 Olympics

By: H. Kent Bowen, Bryce LaPierre and Courtney Purrington

After two and a half years of effort, Fraser Bullock, COO of the 2002 Winter Olympics, faced projected deficits and post-9/11 security requirements only five months before the opening ceremony. Summarizes the organizational structure and processes put in place by... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Knowledge Dissemination; Business or Company Management; Managerial Roles; Organizational Design; Organizational Structure; Planning; Practice; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Sports; System

March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
Case

Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns

By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen

What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details

2004
Chapter

Genzyme's Gaucher Initiative: Global Risk and Responsibility

By: Christopher A. Bartlett and Andrew N. McLean

Keywords: Health Disorders; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Globalization; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Biotechnology Industry

December 2003
Case

Manville Corporation Fiber Glass Group (C) (Abridged)

By: Lynn S. Paine

Manville Corp.'s senior managers are surprised when Japanese government officials advise them not to go forward with their plan to add a cancer warning label to diatomaceous earth (DE) products sold in Japan. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has ruled... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Moral Sensibility; Safety; Government Administration; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Decision Choices and Conditions; Ethics; Announcements; Industrial Products Industry; Japan

November 2003 (Revised March 2006)
Case

Dow Chemical's Bid for the Privatization of PBB in Argentina

By: Mihir A. Desai and Alexandra de Royere

What price should Dow Chemical bid for PBB, a petrochemical complex that is being privatized by the Argentine government? To answer this question, students are forced to consider the role of country risk, the underlying currency exposure of the business, and how to... View Details

Keywords: Bids and Bidding; Privatization; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Valuation; Business and Government Relations; Multinational Firms and Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Energy Industry; Argentina

November 2003 (Revised March 2004)
Case

Drilling South: Petrobras Evaluates Pecom

By: Mihir A. Desai and Ricardo Reisen de Pinho

The Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, is evaluating the acquisition of an Argentine oil company, the Perez Companc Group (Pecom). The acquisition would increase Petrobras' oil reserves and expand its interests outside Brazil, a significant step for the largest company... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Non-Renewable Energy; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; State Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Energy Industry; Argentina; Brazil