Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2009
Chapter

Becoming the Lamp Bearer: The Emerging Roles of the Chief Risk Officer

By: Anette Mikes

Enterprise risk management, under the leadership of chief risk officers (CROs), has the promise to bring enterprise-wide risks, which threaten the achievement of the firm's strategic objectives, into the open and under control. Its organizational significance is... View Details

Keywords: Governance Controls; Managerial Roles; Risk Management; Business Processes; Risk and Uncertainty

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Information Dispersion and Auction Prices

Keywords: by Pai-Ling Yin; Technology; Web Services

October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
Case

Green Hydrogen in Chile

By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Decision Making; Alternative Energy; Renewable Energy; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Instruments; Energy Policy; Government Administration; Strategy; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Energy Industry; Latin America; South America; Chile

December 2012 (Revised February 2014)
Case

Crafting a Founder Agreement at HealthCraft

By: Noam Wasserman, Janet Kraus and Yael Braid

HealthCraft's three founders are about to craft their founding agreement and split the equity among themselves. Uncertainty lingers over each member's future contributions, though—how is the team to devise a durable and effective split? Ever since consultant Kevin... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurs; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Health Industry

2011
Other Unpublished Work

Innovation and Regulative Ambiguities in the U.S. Geothermal Power Sector

By: Shon R. Hiatt

While prior institutional research has focused on institutional ambiguity as an exogenous condition under which organizations exercise agency, this study examines the state's exercise of agency in making legal institutions more or less ambiguous and its impact on... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Policy; Energy Sources; Innovation and Invention; Energy Industry; United States

August 2016
Simulation

BDP Pharmaceuticals

By: Kevin Schulman, Emma Rasiel and Suresh Balu

Susan Durham has just been hired as the Chief Financial Officer of Blue Devil Pharmaceuticals (BDP). Her charge is to understand the optimal pathway for the development of a novel molecule, BDP-1, to understand the cost of drug development, the market opportunity, and... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Entrepreneurship

July 2016
Case

Blue D Pharmaceuticals

By: Kevin Schulman, Emma Rasiel and Suresh Balu

Susan Durham has just been hired as the Chief Financial Officer of Blue Devil Pharmaceuticals (BDP). Her charge is to understand the optimal pathway for the development of a novel molecule, BDP-1, to understand the cost of drug development, the market opportunity, and... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Entrepreneurship

January 1993 (Revised April 1995)
Case

Fog of Business, The

In the mid-1980s, the Holland Sweetener Co. (HSC) was facing the decision whether to enter the European and Canadian aspartame markets, following the ending of NutraSweet's patents there. A major question facing HSC was whether NutraSweet would respond to entry in an... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Patents; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Food and Beverage Industry; Canada; United States; Europe

Article

Price and Quality Decisions by Self-Serving Managers

By: Marco Bertini, Daniel Halbheer and Oded Koenigsberg

We present a theory of price and quality decisions by managers who are self-serving. In the theory, firms stress the price or quality of their products, but not both. Accounting for this, managers exploit any uncertainty about the cause of market outcomes to credit... View Details

Keywords: Causal Reasoning; Self-serving Bias; Strategic Orientation; Managerial Decision-making; Price; Quality; Decision Making; Theory

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May 2018 (Revised October 2019)
Case

Managing the Future of Work

By: William R. Kerr, Allison Ciechanover and Jeff Huizinga

By 2019, leaders from the public and private sector had become increasingly anxious about how advanced technologies and aging global populations could affect labor markets, workplaces, and workers’ lives. Some analysts forecasted that hundreds of millions of workers... View Details

Keywords: Labor Markets; Workplace; Employment; Technological Innovation; Demographics; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Change Management; Problems and Challenges; Opportunities

February 2018
Article

The Impact of a Surprise Donation Ask

By: Christine L. Exley and Ragan Petrie

Individuals frequently exploit "flexibility" built into decision environments to give less. They use uncertainty to justify options benefiting themselves over others, they avoid information that may encourage them to give, and they avoid the ask itself. In this paper,... View Details

Keywords: Charitable Giving; Prosocial Behavior; Self-serving Biases; Excuses; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Behavior

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August 2017
Article

A Formal Theory of Strategy

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

What makes a decision strategic? When is strategy most important? This paper formally studies these questions, starting from a (functional) definition of strategy as “the smallest set of choices to optimally guide (or force) other choices.” The paper shows that this... View Details

Keywords: Strategy Development; Strategy; Decisions

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March 2009 (Revised November 2009)
Supplement

Washington Mutual's Covered Bonds Courseware

By: Daniel Baird Bergstresser, Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Washington Mutual issues 6 billion Euro of covered bonds in 2006. The objective of the case is to ask whether these bonds are mispriced in late 2008. The case is set in September 20008, and Washington Mutual is facing considerable distress due to mounting losses on its... View Details

Keywords: Banks and Banking; Bonds; Education; Information; Banking Industry

March 2009 (Revised November 2016)
Case

Washington Mutual's Covered Bonds

By: Daniel Baird Bergstresser, Robin Greenwood and James Quinn

Washington Mutual issued 6 billion euro of covered bonds in 2006. The objective of the case is to ask whether these bonds are mispriced in late 2008. The case is set in September 2008, and Washington Mutual is facing considerable distress due to mounting losses in its... View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Mortgages; Price; Banking Industry; United States

September 2006 (Revised March 2012)
Case

Fritidsresor Under Pressure (A): The First 10 Hours

By: Joshua D. Margolis, Vincent Marie Dessain and Anders Sjoman

When a tsunami hit Southeast Asia on December 26, 2004, the leadership team at a Swedish tour company must manage a devastating crisis affecting thousands of its customers and employees in Thailand. Documents the challenges the company faced in the first ten hours of... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Crisis Management; Natural Disasters; Tourism Industry; Thailand; Sweden

July 2000
Background Note

Industry Transformation

By: Michael E. Porter and Jan W. Rivkin

One of the steepest challenges a strategist faces is to navigate his or her company through a period of industry transformation--an era of rapid and wholesale changes in industry structure. This note considers how periods of transformation typically unfold. It then... View Details

Keywords: Technological Innovation; Management; Management Practices and Processes; Industry Growth; Industry Structures; Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry

December 2011
Article

Manager-Specific Effects on Earnings Guidance: An Analysis of Top Executive Turnovers

By: Francois Brochet, Lucile Faurel and Sarah McVay

We investigate how managers contribute to the provision of earnings guidance by examining the association between top executive turnovers and guidance. Although firm and industry characteristics are important determinants of guidance, we conclude that CEOs participate... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Teams; Policy; Decisions; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership

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September 2021
Article

Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors' R&D Failures

By: Joshua L. Krieger

I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors' research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the trade-offs and interactions between product-market competition and... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Projects; Failure; Decision Making; Learning

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November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
Case

Colbún and the Future of Chile's Power

By: Forest Reinhardt and Shon R. Hiatt

This case is about Colbún, Chile's second largest electricity generator, which is facing significant uncertainty regarding the cost and availability of alternative energy sources. Problems with the contracted supply of natural gas and the volatility of oil prices,... View Details

Keywords: Energy; Chile; Environmental Protection; Energy Generation; Energy Industry; South America; Chile

2011
Working Paper

The Importance of Work Context in Organizational Learning from Error

By: Lucy H. MacPhail and Amy C. Edmondson

This paper examines the implications of work context for learning from errors in organizations. Prior research has shown that attitudes and behaviors related to error vary between groups within organizations but has not investigated or theorized the ways in which... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Learning; Business Processes; Organizational Culture; Failure; Performance Improvement; Opportunities; Complexity

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