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  • All HBS Web  (2,888)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,213)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,430)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (2,888)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,213)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,430)
← Page 18 of 2,888 Results →
  • January–February 2023
  • Article

Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions

By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas
We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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Li, Michael Lingzhi, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis, and Dimitris Bertsimas. "Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions." Operations Research 71, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 184–201.
  • 06 Mar 2017
  • News

Harvard Reveals Blueprint for Avoiding Stock Crashes

  • 31 Oct 2004
  • What Do You Think?

Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?

have been found to be better than a few experts at everything from estimating the true magnitude of things (as in guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar) to diagnosing causes of problems (as in determining that the O-ring seals were the primary cause of the... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 2008
  • Working Paper

Catering through Nominal Share Prices

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices.  The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
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Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering through Nominal Share Prices." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w13762, January 2008. (First Draft in 2007.)
  • 08 Sep 2014
  • News

The Original Disruptor, Clayton Christensen, And VC Bill Hambrecht Talk About The Theory Of Disruption

  • August 2003
  • Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler
We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets
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Baker, Malcolm, Jeremy Stein, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, no. 3 (August 2003): 969–1006.
  • Research Summary

Implications of Limits of Arbitrage (with James Choi)

In this project we investigate the relationship between limits to arbitrage facing mutual fund managers and asset pricing anomalies. We measure changes in the limits to arbitrage by computing the average of slopes on current and past returns in quarterly... View Details
  • August–September 2012
  • Article

The Future of Boards: Meeting the Governance Challenges of the 21st Century

By: Jay W. Lorsch
Predicting the challenges boards will face in the years ahead requires an understanding of how they and the governance they have provided has evolved in past years, as well as the challenges they face in the years ahead. Since I have been serving on and doing research... View Details
Keywords: Boards Of Directors; Corporate Governance; Governance; Succession; Compensation; Governing and Advisory Boards
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Lorsch, Jay W. "The Future of Boards: Meeting the Governance Challenges of the 21st Century." European Financial Review (August–September 2012), 2–4.
  • Research Summary

The Role of Financial and Information Intermediaries in the Capital Markets

Hutton's research investigates the role of financial analysts and short sellers in the pricing of equity securities. Recently, Hutton examines (with Patricia Dechow and Richard Sloan) the role of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts in the pricing of common equity... View Details
  • 14 Aug 2020
  • News

Remote Work Has Cushioned The Pandemic's Blow, But WBUR Poll Reveals Inequalities

  • 2007
  • Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career
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Friedman, Walter A. "Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-037, November 2007.
  • 25 Apr 2007
  • Research & Ideas

Feeling Stuck? Getting Past Impasse

the crisis. We realize that our old ways are not working. It's not a matter of staying up late, working harder, and getting in earlier. Emotionally there's the feeling of being stuck. And then some predictable things happen in the second... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
  • Article

Soul and Machine (Learning)

By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Burnap Alex, Tong Guo, Dokyun (DK) Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, medical diagnoses, and language translation, but how can machine learning help marketers improve marketing decisions? Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Marketing Applications; Knowledge; Technological Innovation; Core Relationships; Marketing; Applications and Software
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Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Burnap Alex, Tong Guo, Dokyun (DK) Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Marketing Letters 31, no. 4 (December 2020): 393–404.
  • Article

The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
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Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
  • October 2010
  • Article

Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Organizational Culture; Economics; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Mergers and Acquisitions; Framework; Satisfaction; Motivation and Incentives; Power and Influence; Communication
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Management Science 56, no. 10 (October 2010): 1718–1738.
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Market Transactions
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Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16454, October 2010. (Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.)
  • Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
  • 13 Sep 2016
  • News

The Hard Truth About Business Model Innovation

    Siyu Zhang

    Siyu Zhang is a second-year doctoral student at HBS. Zhang joined Harvard Business School in 2020 as a Research Associate and has been working on macroeconomic forecasting projects. Prior to joining HBS, he was a Data Scientist at John Hancock, where he utilized... View Details

    • Article

    Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

    By: J. Peter Scoblic
    Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
    Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
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    Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
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