Likelihood Of Default - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Forthcoming
Article

FinTech Lending and Cashless Payments

By: Pulak Ghosh, Boris Vallée and Yao Zeng

Borrower's use of cashless payments both improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Payments; Data Sharing; Financing and Loans; Information Technology; Banks and Banking; Business Model

14 Oct 2008
Research & Ideas

Should You Bring Advertising Expertise In-House?

agreements with outside agencies, large advertisers are in a stronger bargaining position than are smaller advertisers to capture the size-related economies available to independent agencies. Consistent with this line of reasoning, our... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Advertising

January 2008
Article

Nonemployment Stigma as Rational Herding: A Field Experiment

By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee

Long spells of unemployment are known to reduce the likelihood of re-employment, but it is difficult to discern the reasons for this observation. Using an experimental method that controls for search intensity and possible discouragement of job applicants, I document... View Details

Keywords: Job Search; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Employment; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Creativity; Human Needs; Job Interviews; Selection and Staffing; Recruitment; Managerial Roles; Judgments; Employment Industry

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20 Jan 2009
Research & Ideas

Risky Business with Structured Finance

securities are pooled and tranched. Their simulation uses pools consisting of 100 bonds with a five-year default probability of 5 percent and a recovery rate View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Banking; Financial Services

2021
Working Paper

Financial Flexibility and Corporate Employment

By: Rebecca Lester, Ethan Rouen and Braden Williams

We study the role of financial flexibility on COVID-19 employment actions. Using daily data from March through May 2020 for 354 of the largest U.S. employers, we find that firms facing a negative demand shock were 28.8 percentage points more likely to reduce their... View Details

Keywords: Financial Flexibility; COVID-19; Pandemic; Employment; Health Pandemics; System Shocks; Finance

June 2009 (Revised November 2020)
Case

Busse Place

By: Arthur I Segel, William J. Poorvu, Richard Kessler, Justin Seth Ginsburgh and Eric Fleiss

Busse Corporate Center's largest tenant recently declared bankruptcy, leaving the building 38% occupied and significantly overleveraged. In a depressed suburban Chicago office market, Hannah Sanchez, the leasing agent, has to negotiate lease proposals with three... View Details

Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; Restructuring; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Mortgages; Investment; Leasing; Property; Real Estate Industry; Chicago

Article

No Team is an Island: How Leaders Shape Networked Ecosystems for Team Success

By: Inga Carboni, Robert Cross and Amy C. Edmondson

Today’s organizations rely on networks of dynamic systems of “agile” teams to get work done. Teams are distributed, transient, and loosely bounded in service of responsiveness and innovation. The key to this new way of doing work is managing the networked ecosystem in... View Details

Keywords: Cross-functional Teams; Teams; Interviews; Leadership; Groups and Teams; Networks

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March 2016 (Revised October 2023)
Case

Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover

By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah L. Abbott

In early 2013, Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC), a large publicly traded producer and distributer of vodka and spirits in Eastern and Central Europe, has suffered significant declines in its financial performance, is at risk of defaulting on its debt,... View Details

Keywords: Hostile Takeover; Accounting Restatement; Activist Shareholder; Restructuring; Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Statements; Corporate Governance; Investment Activism; Distribution Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Russia; Europe

09 Sep 2015
News

Even Harvard B-school alums are fretting over income inequality

September 2004
Article

Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Expectations; Outcome or Result; Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Failure; Success; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Personal Characteristics; Values and Beliefs; Ethics

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January 2024
Technical Note

Venture Capital and Private Equity Funds: A Primer

By: Jo Tango and Christina Wallace

How do venture capital and private equity funds actually work? This Technical Note covers the "when, who, and how" details:

"When": fund length, extensions, and when investors can no longer initiate new investments.
"Who": who is in the General... View Details

Keywords: Fund Flows; Fund Management; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Investment Funds

February 2005
Article

Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting

By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse

This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Financial Services Industry

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13 Feb 2024
Cold Call Podcast

Apple’s Dilemma: Balancing Privacy and Safety Responsibilities

Keywords: Re: Nien-he Hsieh & Henry W. McGee

2015
Working Paper

Discretion in Hiring

By: Mitchell Hoffman, Lisa B. Kahn and Danielle Li

Who should make hiring decisions? We propose an empirical test for assessing whether firms should rely on hard metrics such as job test scores or grant managers discretion in making hiring decisions. We implement our test in the context of the introduction of a... View Details

Keywords: Selection and Staffing; Management Practices and Processes

October 2021
Article

Fintech Borrowers: Lax Screening or Cream-Skimming?

By: Marco Di Maggio and Vincent Yao

Personal credit is the fastest-growing segment of the consumer credit market, mainly driven by fintech lenders' staggering expansion. We study this market using a unique individual-level data, which covers most of the top fintech and traditional lenders, and provides... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Lending; Consumer Finance; Credit History; Self-control; Present Bias; Financing and Loans; Personal Finance; Credit; Behavior

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2024
Working Paper

The Retail Habitat

By: Toomas Laarits and Marco Sammon

Retail investors trade hard-to-value stocks. Controlling for size, stocks with a high share of retail-initiated trades are composed of more intangible capital, have longer duration cash-flows and a higher likelihood of being mispriced. Consistent with retail-heavy... View Details

Keywords: Retail; Retail Trade; Intangible Capital; Mispricing; Investment; Valuation; Business Earnings

2008
Working Paper

Open to Negotiation: Phenomenological Assumptions and Knowledge Dissemination

By: Corinne Bendersky and Kathleen L. McGinn

Phenomenological assumptions-assumptions about the fundamental qualities of the phenomenon being studied and how it relates to the environment in which it occurs-affect the dissemination of knowledge from subfields to the broader field of study. Micro-process research... View Details

Keywords: Citations; Knowledge Dissemination; Negotiation; Research

January–February 2025
Article

Why People Resist Embracing AI: The Five Main Obstacles—and How To Overcome Them

By: Julian De Freitas

The success of AI depends not only on its capabilities, which are becoming more advanced each day, but on people’s willingness to harness them. Unfortunately, many people view AI negatively, fearing it will cause job losses, increase the likelihood that their personal... View Details

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Research Summary

Exclusivity and Control (joint with A. Hagiu)

We analyze platform competition for content in the presence of strategic interactions between content distributors and content providers. Contrary to standard results concerning double marginalization and pricing of complementary goods, we prove that a platform gaining... View Details

February 2021
Case

Apple: Privacy vs. Safety (A)

By: Henry McGee, Nien-hê Hsieh, Sarah McAra and Christian Godwin

In 2015, Apple CEO Tim Cook debuted the iPhone 6S with enhanced security measures that enflamed a debate on privacy and public safety around the world. The iPhone 6S, amid a heightened concern for privacy following the 2013 revelation of clandestine U.S. surveillance... View Details

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