Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2004 (Revised March 2007)
Case

Paper and More

Provides a context and exercise for introducing retail inventory management, including cost optimization, service-level criteria, and forecasting in single and multiproduct settings. The owner of a single-location paper and paper products store considers the... View Details

Keywords: Management; Expansion; Logistics; Forecasting and Prediction; Pulp and Paper Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry

10 Sep 2020
Research & Ideas

The COVID Two-Step for Leaders: Protect and Pivot

most vital of all agile initiatives. Senior executives learn to manage the transition as an agile team. They view it as a continuous improvement program, not as a project with predictable end points or fixed completion dates. They realize... View Details

Keywords: by Boris Groysberg and Katherine Connolly Baden

23 Aug 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson

October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
Case

Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India

By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh

Brinda Patel, director of oral care products for the India division of a consumer home-care product company, develops a data-driven marketing plan for toothbrushes. She believes her plan can support a 20% increase in unit sales based on rising demand for modern... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning ＆ Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Advertising; Product Launch; Budgets and Budgeting; Product Development; Consumer Products Industry; Health Industry; India

October 2020
Article

IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice

By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy

Using a novel database that tracks web traffic on the SEC’s EDGAR servers between 2004 and 2015, we show that mutual fund managers gather information on a very particular subset of firms and insiders, and their surveillance is very persistent over time. This tracking... View Details

Keywords: Tracked Trades; Return Predictability; Institutional Trading; Insider Trading; Institutional Investing; Information; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Management

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24 Feb 2011
Working Paper Summaries

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson

July 2010
Case

Monmouth, Inc.

By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli

The management of Monmouth Inc. is considering whether to acquire the Robertson Tool Company and the value and form that the acquisition should take. Value can be assessed using a variety of approaches including a DCF with WACC analysis, impact on EPS and market... View Details

Keywords: Competitive Bidding; Forecasting; Stock Offerings; Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; Margins; Stocks; Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Bids and Bidding; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry

July 2019
Teaching Note

Miroglio Fashion

By: Sunil Gupta

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 519-053, 519-070, and 519-072. View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

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2013
Book

Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy

This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details

Keywords: Governance; Debt Securities; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Financial Statements; Credit; Business Ventures; Strategy; Financial Condition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction

April 2010
Teaching Note

Jones Electrical Distribution (Brief Case)

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder

Teaching Note for 4179. View Details

Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Analysis; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Financing and Loans; Banks and Banking

2023
Working Paper

New Facts and Data about Professors and Their Research

By: Kyle Myers, Wei Yang Tham, Jerry Thursby, Marie Thursby, Nina Cohodes, Karim R. Lakhani, Rachel Mural and Yilun Xu

We introduce a new survey of professors at roughly 150 of the most research-intensive institutions of higher education in the US. We document seven new features of how research-active professors are compensated, how they spend their time, and how they perceive their... View Details

Keywords: Research; Higher Education; Compensation and Benefits; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Performance Productivity

23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

Data and Machine Learning By: Guo, Xiaojia, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Bert De Reyck Abstract—Problem definition: In collaboration with Heathrow Airport, we develop a View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

February 2010
Background Note

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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July 2005 (Revised January 2009)
Case

Paper and More (A)

Provides a context and exercise for introducing retail inventory management, including cost optimization, service-level criteria, and forecasting in single and multiproduct settings. The owner of a single-location paper and paper products store considers the... View Details

Keywords: Cost Management; Measurement and Metrics; Logistics; Sales; Expansion; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry

March 1997
Background Note

Copper and Zinc Markets 1996

By: Peter Tufano

Provides background information on copper and zinc markets as of mid-1996. Discusses supply and demand conditions, forecasts of the spot prices of the metals, and contracts for future delivery (forwards, futures, and options). View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Metals and Minerals; Supply and Industry; Mining Industry

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

June 2013
Article

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit

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March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
Background Note

Activity-Based Costing and Capacity

By: Robert S. Kaplan

Discusses the use of budgeted rather than historical data in an activity-based costing (ABC) model and argues for calculating rates using practical capacity, not actual utilization. An ABC model need not be limited to analysis of historical data. When cost driver rates... View Details

Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Accounting Industry

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