Publications

Fast Answer

FIELD Global Immersion Resources: Brazil

href="https://www.bcg.com/publications/2017/principal-investors-winning-emerging-market-private-equity-strategies-brazil-new-economic-reality.aspx" target="_blank">Private Equity Strategies for Brazil’s New Economic Reality: 2017 BCG report on Brazil's View Details

February 1998 (Revised January 2002)
Case

China: Facing the 21st Century

After 20 years of strong economic performance, economic czar Zhu Rongji considers whether it is time to rethink China's development strategy. The case reviews China's development strategy since 1978 and considers the challenges facing the country as it enters the 21st... View Details

Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Macroeconomics; China

2016
Working Paper

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics

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August 2013
Case

The Republic of the Philippines: The Next Asian Tiger?

By: Richard H.K. Vietor, Carol Dominguez and Tully Moss

The Philippines, for long a laggard in Asia, is now growing fast in 2012, with a positive current account balance. While it still exports services, it is increasing its assembly of manufactured products and trying to increase mining. For these activities, however, it... View Details

Keywords: Country Strategy; Asia; Outsourcing; Macroeconomics; Foreign Direct Investment; Country; Asia; Philippines

2007
Working Paper

Plant-Size Distribution and Cross-Country Income Differences

By: Laura Alfaro, Andrew Charlton and Fabio Kanzcuk

We investigate, using plant-level data for 79 developed and developing countries, whether differences in the allocation of resources across heterogeneous plants are a significant determinant of cross-country differences in income per worker. For this purpose, we use a... View Details

Keywords: Heterogeneous Plants; Productivity; Policy Distortions; Wages; Equality and Inequality; Resource Allocation; Macroeconomics

April 1997 (Revised February 2002)
Case

Europe in 1996

By: Huw Pill and Effie Anagnostopoulos

Describes the process of economic and political integration in Europe in the period since 1945. The main issues discussed are: the common market; the single market; economic and monetary union; EU enlargement encompassing the former centrally planned economies; and EU... View Details

Keywords: Integration; Trade; Macroeconomics; Europe

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Research Summary

Overview

My research lies in the intersection of economic growth and political economy focusing on the role of historical legacies, biogeography and culture in shaping contemporary economic performance. As growth economists our understanding of comparative economic development... View Details

Keywords: Institutions; Ethnicity; Economic Growth; Development Economics; Macroeconomics; Culture; Religion; Africa; Asia

2024
Working Paper

Fiscal Policy under Convex Supply Curves

By: Shlok Goyal, Avi Lipton and Borui Niklas Zhu

Recent empirical evidence suggests that supply curves are convex. Supply curve convexity is at odds with conventional Phillips curves, which rely on an infinitely elastic underlying supply curve. This paper explores the effect of supply curve convexity on the... View Details

Keywords: Fiscal Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Inflation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Policy; Mathematical Methods; United States

SSRN

2023
Other Unpublished Work

Urgent: The IMF Must Reform

By: Laura Alfaro, Guillermo Calvo, José de Gregorio, Augusto de la Torre, Roque Fernandez, Pablo Guidotti, Enrique Mendoza, Ernesto Talvi, Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Andrés Velasco

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Emerging Markets; Financial Markets; International Finance; Latin America

Mar 2012
Article

The Looming Challenge to U.S. Competitiveness

education and entrepreneurship—those strengths are increasingly threatened by weaknesses in areas such as the tax code, basic education, macroeconomic policies, and regulation. Steps to reverse the loss will require a new focus by... View Details

Web

Global Maps - Creating Emerging Markets

visualization explore trade networks from both micro- and macroeconomic perspectives. EarthPulse A visual guide to global trends, National Geographic’s EarthPulse has maps and detailed charts showing the effects of globalization on... View Details

Profile

Sorina Casian-Botez

day build a company and develop the expertise to become a thought leader in certain aspects of macroeconomic policy. My two years at HBS gave me the tools and courage to aim for my absolute best. What are you most looking forward to in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Nonprofit / Government; Consulting

17 Jan 2020
Blog Post

Going the Distance for Investment Excellence

that, in his own words, was “a bit of a news junkie household.” Surrounded by stacks of publications like The Wall Street Journal, as a teenager he developed a keen understanding of macroeconomic terms—an interest that grew as he later... View Details

24 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 24, 2006

and AIDS: The Macroeconomic Impact of a Health Crisis Authors:Eric D. Werker, Amrita Ahuja, and Brian Wendell Abstract Theories abound on the potential macroeconomic impact of AIDS in Africa, yet there have... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

24 May 2010
Research & Ideas

Stimulus Surprise: Companies Retrench When Government Spends

Recent research at Harvard Business School began with the premise that as a state's congressional delegation grew in stature and power in Washington, D.C., local businesses would benefit from the increased federal spending sure to come their way. It turned out quite... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

05 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

What really fuels a boom-and-bust cycle in the modern global economy? It’s not always household debt, says a new paper that parses in-depth data across 115 countries. Instead, rising corporate debt may flash the clearest warning that a fiscal crisis is on the horizon.... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

March 2022
Background Note

The Labor Market as COVID Recedes: A Great Resignation or a Great Realization?

By: Joseph B. Fuller, William R. Kerr and Ria Mazumdar

Keywords: Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Macroeconomics; Economic Sectors; Economy; United States

Fast Answer

GDP: Contribution by sector/industry

In Step 3, choose series. Expand Macroeconomic indicators and select GDP by sector of origin. Choose desired series and clickView Details

February 2011
Background Note

GUIDESlines: Benchmark Values for the GUIDES Framework

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Jacob Kuipers and Jonathan Schlefer

GUIDESlines provides benchmark values of the key economic indicators identified in the GUIDES framework for both developed countries (the OECD) and fast-growing emerging markets (the BRINCS countries). View Details

Keywords: Economics; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Framework; Business and Government Relations