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      • Faculty Publications  (2,819)

      Judgment And Decision MakingRemove Judgment And Decision Making →

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      • November 2022
      • Supplement

      Arcos Dorados’ Quest for the Digitalization of Last-Mile Delivery in Colombia (B)

      By: Jorge Tamayo, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      In 2020, Francisco Staton, president of Arcos Dorados’ Caribbean Division, and Héctor Orozco, Managing Director of Arcos Dorados Colombia, were looking into Arcos Dorados’ options to consolidate its food delivery service in Colombia. This time the matter at hand hinged... View Details
      Keywords: Transformation; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Global Strategy; Technological Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Tactics; Logistics; Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Performance Improvement; Partners and Partnerships; Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; Latin America; South America; Colombia
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      Tamayo, Jorge, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados’ Quest for the Digitalization of Last-Mile Delivery in Colombia (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 723-396, November 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      A Human-Centric Take on Model Monitoring

      By: Murtuza Shergadwala, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Krishnaram Kenthapadi
      Predictive models are increasingly used to make various consequential decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, finance, and policy. It becomes critical to ensure that these models make accurate predictions, are robust to shifts in the data, do not rely on... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Research and Development; Demand and Consumers
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      Shergadwala, Murtuza, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Krishnaram Kenthapadi. "A Human-Centric Take on Model Monitoring." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Human Computation and Crowdsourcing (HCOMP) 10 (2022): 173–183.
      • October 2022 (Revised January 2023)
      • Case

      Century Bank: Closing Time?

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Bill Kwon
      Barry Sloane, second-generation Chairman, President, and CEO of his family’s bank, Century Bank, weighed whether to sell to Eastern Bank. As a small regional bank, Century faced a number of challenging trends, such as digitization and market share decline in the coming... View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Business Exit; Banking; Family; Massachusetts; Boston; United States; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Family Business; Family and Family Relationships; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Making; Finance; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty; Emotions; Banking Industry; Boston; Massachusetts; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Bill Kwon. "Century Bank: Closing Time?" Harvard Business School Case 223-040, October 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
      • October 2022 (Revised September 2023)
      • Teaching Note

      Kwame Owusu-Kesse at Harlem Children's Zone

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 422-020. View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Leadership; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Decisions; Nonprofit Organizations; Personal Development and Career; Growth and Development Strategy; Race; Social Issues; New York (city, NY)
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M. "Kwame Owusu-Kesse at Harlem Children's Zone." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 423-042, October 2022. (Revised September 2023.)
      • October 2022
      • Case

      Ethena: A Go-to-Market Dilemma

      By: Rembrand Koning and Stacy Straaberg
      In November 2021, Roxanne Petraeus and Anne Solmssen, founders of Brooklyn-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) startup Ethena, were looking to expand their compliance training business. The founders hired Arnie Gullov-Singh, an outside revenue consultant, to advise on... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Judgments; Growth and Development Strategy; Business or Company Management; Business Strategy; Expansion; Segmentation; Technology Industry; United States; New York (state, US)
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      Koning, Rembrand, and Stacy Straaberg. "Ethena: A Go-to-Market Dilemma." Harvard Business School Case 723-363, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 1

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Data-driven Decision-making; Decisions; Negotiation; Bids and Bidding; Valuation; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 1." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-016, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 2

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 2." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-017, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 3

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 3." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-018, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 1

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 1." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-019, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 2

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 2." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-020, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 3

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 3." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-021, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making; Market Timing; Measurement and Metrics
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-022, October 2022.
      • October 2022
      • Exercise

      Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer

      By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
      Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm; Decision Choices and Conditions; Measurement and Metrics; Market Timing; Decision Making
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      Luca, Michael, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Nathan Sun. "Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer." Harvard Business School Exercise 923-023, October 2022.
      • October 2022 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Masdar City: Aiming for Sustainable and Profitable Real Estate

      By: Boris Vallee and Fares Khrais
      Masdar City broke ground in 2008 and was conceived by the Abu Dhabi government to be an international beacon of innovation in sustainable energy and real estate. It was also to be a profitable investment for the government. At first glance, the two goals pulled in... View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Business Growth And Maturation; Decisions; Public Sector; Financial Crisis; Construction; Climate Change; Green Technology; Borrowing And Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital; Capital Budgeting; Capital Structure; Cost Of Capital; Equity; REIT; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Innovation; Growth And Development Strategy; Emerging Markets; Urban Development; Middle East; United Arab Emirates; Sustainable Cities; Green Building; Business and Government Relations; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financing and Loans; Real Estate Industry; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Abu Dhabi
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      Vallee, Boris, and Fares Khrais. "Masdar City: Aiming for Sustainable and Profitable Real Estate." Harvard Business School Case 223-036, October 2022. (Revised February 2024.)
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • September–October 2022
      • Article

      Case Study: What's the Right Career Move After a Public Failure?

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz and Francesca Gino
      “Reunions are for happy people,” Mariani Kallis said to her friend Whitney on the phone. “I’m not going.” “Come on, it won’t be the same without you,” Whitney pleaded. “Besides, no one is happy right now. Everyone’s life is a mess.” “I’m pretty sure none of our... View Details
      Keywords: Career Decisions; Personal Development and Career
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., and Francesca Gino. "Case Study: What's the Right Career Move After a Public Failure?" Harvard Business Review 100, no. 5 (September–October 2022): 144–149.
      • September–October 2022
      • Article

      Should Your Company Sell on Amazon?: Reach Comes at a Price

      By: Ayelet Israeli, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Matt Higgins and Sabir Semerkant
      Selling on Amazon allows brands to reach millions of consumers—but that exposure comes with costs. They include smaller margins, more competition, the risk of commoditization, and less knowledge about customers. In this article, the authors present a scorecard to... View Details
      Keywords: Retail; Retailing; Online Business; Ecommerce; E-commerce; E-Commerce Strategy; Omnichannel Retail; Omnichannel Retailing; Amazon; Amazon.com; Sales; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Business Model; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Matt Higgins, and Sabir Semerkant. "Should Your Company Sell on Amazon? Reach Comes at a Price." Harvard Business Review 100, no. 5 (September–October 2022): 38–46.
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement

      By: Matt Sigelman, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson and Gad Levanon
      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement is a new effort to give companies and other stakeholders a set of robust tools that measure how well major employers are doing in fostering economic mobility for workers and how they could do... View Details
      Keywords: Upward Mobility; Career Advancement; Personal Development and Career; Compensation and Benefits; Employees; Wages; Human Capital; Recruitment
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      Sigelman, Matt, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson, and Gad Levanon. "The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement." White Paper, Burning Glass Institute, October 2022 (A joint project with Harvard Business School Project on Managing the Future of Work and Schultz Family Foundation.)
      • September 26, 2022
      • Article

      Is Your Family Office Built for the Future?

      By: Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer
      Family offices can provide a number of benefits, including privacy, customization, and having your own team to handle a wide range of services, such as guiding family philanthropy, managing shared properties, or even managing household help. Successful principals in... View Details
      Keywords: Business Offices; Family and Family Relationships
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      Baron, Josh, and Rob Lachenauer. "Is Your Family Office Built for the Future?" Harvard Business Review (website) (September 26, 2022).
      • September 2022 (Revised June 2025)
      • Case

      York Capital CLOs and WorldStrides International

      By: Victoria Ivashina and William Vrattos
      The case follows the debt restructuring of WorldStrides International, a travel program provider in the education market, after the onset of COVID-19. The pandemic severely impacted the travel industry, creating challenges for many companies like WorldStrides, which... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Debt Restructuring; CLO; Compliance; Debt Securities; Financing and Loans; Decision Making; Travel Industry; Education Industry
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and William Vrattos. "York Capital CLOs and WorldStrides International." Harvard Business School Case 223-034, September 2022. (Revised June 2025.)
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