Publications

23 Mar 2023
Research & Ideas

As Climate Fears Mount, More Investors Turn to 'ESG' Funds Despite Few Rules

Investor interest in social responsibility has skyrocketed in the past three years, even as US regulations to hold companies accountable remain in flux and the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) label itself draws backlash. Investors are willing to pay a... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

SSRN

January 2008
Background Note

Convertible Arbitrage

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand how convertible bonds can be viewed as a portfolio of simpler securities and to introduce an over-the-counter market. The convertible bonds that are available during the simulation are at-the-money and in-the-money so that... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Price; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods

June 1995
Case

Banc One Corporation (A)

As Banc One's use of derivatives had proliferated, investors and analysts had expressed increasing concern about the size of derivative portfolios, the potential sensitivity of their value to interest rate swings, and the lack of standardized reporting on their use.... View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Investment Banking; Financial Reporting; Annual Reports; Banking Industry

Article

The Economics of Structured Finance

By: Joshua D. Coval, Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

This paper investigates the spectacular rise and fall of structured finance. The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets like loans, bonds, and mortgages, and the subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital structure of claims, known... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Asset Management; Debt Securities; Investment; Risk Management; Behavior

02 May 2023
What Do You Think?

How Should Artificial Intelligence Be Regulated—if at All?

players, often with unorthodox moves. Sure, at the moment AI causes machines to do dumb things and say things that aren’t true. And yes, AI could spread damaging information even more rapidly and convincingly than social media. Some pioneer developers even believe... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Information Technology; Technology

July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
Background Note

A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis

Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation

February 2018
Case

Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments

By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding

The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and... View Details

Keywords: Pension Fund Investing; Infrastucture; Power/Energy; Credit Enhancement; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Investment Funds; Emerging Markets; Nigeria; Africa

2024
Working Paper

What Do Impact Investors Do Differently?

By: Shawn Cole, Leslie Jeng, Josh Lerner, Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth

In recent years, impact investors – private investors who seek to generate simultaneously financial and social returns – have attracted intense interest and controversy. We analyze a novel, comprehensive data set of impact and traditional investors to assess how the... View Details

Keywords: ESG; Socially Responsible Investing; Investment Decisions; Public Goods; Impact Investment; Investment; Private Equity; Venture Capital

SSRN

2012
Article

Friends with Money

By: Christopher Parsons, J. Engelberg and P. Gao

When banks and firms are connected through interpersonal linkages—such as their respective management having attended college or previously worked together—interest rates are markedly reduced, comparable with single shifts in credit ratings. These rate concessions do... View Details

Keywords: Social and Collaborative Networks; Interest Rates; Banking Industry

April 2015
Article

Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper

This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Management Processes; Credit Products; Experimental Economics; Risk Management; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry

Article

R&D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth

By: Diego Comin

In this paper I evaluate the contribution of R&D investments to productivity growth. The basis for the analysis are the free entry condition and the fact that most R&D innovations are embodied. Free entry yields a relationship between the resources devoted to R&D and... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Investment; Interest Rates; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; Perspective; United States

Spring 2024
Article

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo

As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry

22 Jun 2011
Working Paper Summaries

The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes

Keywords: by Matthew Weinzierl

22 Sep 2015
News

Who's Responsible for Erasing America's Shortage of Skilled Workers?

The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy

Our novel evidence suggests that in the times of unusually low interest rates money market fund managers increased, on average, their portfolios’ risk. We also show... View Details

January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
Case

Bank for International Development, Software Case

By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman

A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation

October 2019 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Myanmar: Special Economic Zones

By: Willy Shih and Dawn Lau

This case examines four Special Economic Zones in Myanmar. While the country's development had been hobbled by a complex history of military rule, ethnic conflict, and international sanctions, as it pursued liberalization it sought avenues to developing its economy.... View Details

Keywords: Economic Development; Emerging Economies; Special Economic Zones (SEZs); Development Economics; Developing Countries and Economies; Manufacturing Industry; Energy Industry; Southeast Asia; Myanmar