Publications

January 2008
Background Note

Convertible Arbitrage

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand how convertible bonds can be viewed as a portfolio of simpler securities and to introduce an over-the-counter market. The convertible bonds that are available during the simulation are at-the-money and in-the-money so that... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Price; Risk Management; Mathematical Methods

Multinationals frequently operate in locations where laws against corruption are not widely enforced. We examine ratings of self-reported anticorruption efforts for 480 multinationals to better understand what factors underlie their efforts and their performance... View Details

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

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02 May 2023
What Do You Think?

How Should Artificial Intelligence Be Regulated—if at All?

players, often with unorthodox moves. Sure, at the moment AI causes machines to do dumb things and say things that aren’t true. And yes, AI could spread damaging information even more rapidly and convincingly than social media. Some pioneer developers even believe... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett; Information Technology; Technology

23 Mar 2023
Research & Ideas

As Climate Fears Mount, More Investors Turn to 'ESG' Funds Despite Few Rules

Investor interest in social responsibility has skyrocketed in the past three years, even as US regulations to hold companies accountable remain in flux and the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) label itself draws backlash. Investors are willing to pay a... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services

February 2018
Case

Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments

By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding

The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and... View Details

Keywords: Pension Fund Investing; Infrastucture; Power/Energy; Credit Enhancement; Infrastructure; Project Finance; Investment Funds; Emerging Markets; Nigeria; Africa

Spring 2024
Article

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo

As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry

2012
Article

Friends with Money

By: Christopher Parsons, J. Engelberg and P. Gao

When banks and firms are connected through interpersonal linkages—such as their respective management having attended college or previously worked together—interest rates are markedly reduced, comparable with single shifts in credit ratings. These rate concessions do... View Details

Keywords: Social and Collaborative Networks; Interest Rates; Banking Industry

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Article

R&D: A Small Contribution to Productivity Growth

By: Diego Comin

In this paper I evaluate the contribution of R&D investments to productivity growth. The basis for the analysis are the free entry condition and the fact that most R&D innovations are embodied. Free entry yields a relationship between the resources devoted to R&D and... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Investment; Interest Rates; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; Perspective; United States

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22 Jun 2011
Working Paper Summaries

The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes

Keywords: by Matthew Weinzierl

04 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 4, 2018

shareholders' economic interests and low corporate profitability, Japan introduced the JPX-Nikkei400 in 2014. The index highlighted the country's "best-run" companies by annually selecting the 400 most profitable of its large and liquid... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

22 Sep 2015
News

Who's Responsible for Erasing America's Shortage of Skilled Workers?

The Unintended Consequences of the Zero Lower Bound Policy

Our novel evidence suggests that in the times of unusually low interest rates money market fund managers increased, on average, their portfolios’ risk. We also show... View Details

July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
Background Note

A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis

Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation

27 Jan 2009
First Look

First Look: January 27, 2009

strategic choices that affect both the expected profits of the firm and their riskiness. Even if competition at first pushes the manager towards profit maximization as commonly argued, I show that further increases in competitive forces might as well lead him to take... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

We show that the secular upward shift in short-run cross-country correlations of stock and bond returns does not necessarily imply a decline in the benefits of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors. We show that this increase in correlations has... View Details

March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
Case

Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies at General Motors: Competitive Exposures

By: Mihir A. Desai and Mark Veblen

How can a multinational firm analyze and manage currency risks that arise from competitive exposures? General Motors has a substantial competitive exposure to the Japanese yen. Although the risks GM faces from the depreciating yen are widely acknowledged, the company's... View Details

Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Competition; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; International Finance; Financial Management; Investment Funds; Risk and Uncertainty; Auto Industry

October 2019 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Myanmar: Special Economic Zones

By: Willy Shih and Dawn Lau

This case examines four Special Economic Zones in Myanmar. While the country's development had been hobbled by a complex history of military rule, ethnic conflict, and international sanctions, as it pursued liberalization it sought avenues to developing its economy.... View Details

Keywords: Economic Development; Emerging Economies; Special Economic Zones (SEZs); Development Economics; Developing Countries and Economies; Manufacturing Industry; Energy Industry; Southeast Asia; Myanmar

January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
Case

Bank for International Development, Software Case

By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman

A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details

Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation