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      • February 2010
      • Supplement

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      This Excel worksheet contains sample problems, prebuilt Excel models to run market sizing and market share analyses, and charts and graphs which help visualize the results. It is designed to accompany Marketing Analysis Tookit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis.... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Market Participation; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 510-714, February 2010.
      • February 2010
      • Background Note

      Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

      By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
      Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
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      Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
      • January 2010 (Revised March 2013)
      • Case

      HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI

      By: F. Asis Martinez Jerez, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery and Lisa Brem
      HubSpot, a web marketing startup is under pressure from VCs to rapidly acquire new customers and to maintain a low level of customer churn. In the case, students explore the drivers of customer churn and uncover opportunities to increase customer retention across the... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Satisfaction; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Happiness; Consulting Industry
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      Martinez Jerez, F. Asis, Thomas Steenburgh, Jill Avery, and Lisa Brem. "HubSpot: Lower Churn through Greater CHI." Harvard Business School Case 110-052, January 2010. (Revised March 2013.)
      • Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth
      A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, and Alvin E. Roth. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction." Special Issue on Predicting Behavior in Games. Games 1, no. 2 (June 2010): 117–136.
      • January 2010
      • Journal Article

      A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

      By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
      Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
      Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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      Erev, Ido, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West, and Christian Lebiere. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description." Special Issue on Decisions from Experience. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23, no. 1 (January 2010).
      • Article

      Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

      By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
      Keywords: Competency and Skills; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Funds; Earnings Management
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      Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 45, no. 5 (October 2010): 1111 –1131.
      • December 2009
      • Case

      TruEarth Healthy Foods: Market Research for a New Product Introduction

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Sunru Yong
      Topics covered include: consumer marketing, market research, new product introduction, and quantitative analysis. TruEarth Healthy Foods, a maker of gourmet pastas, sauces, and meals, wants to build on its successful introduction of fresh whole grain pasta by... View Details
      Keywords: Market Research; Consumer Marketing; Brands; Food; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Brands and Branding; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Sunru Yong. "TruEarth Healthy Foods: Market Research for a New Product Introduction." Harvard Business School Brief Case 094-065, December 2009.
      • October 2009 (Revised July 2012)
      • Case

      Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count

      By: Elie Ofek, Jason Riis and Paul Hamilton
      Emotiv is getting ready to launch its innovative brain-computer interfacing (BCI) technology. The company has developed a special headset, called EPOC, and highly sophisticated software that can translate a person's emotions, cognitive thoughts, and facial expressions... View Details
      Keywords: Technology Adoption; Sales; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Marketing Strategy; Partners and Partnerships; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Launch; Business Startups; Technology Industry
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      Ofek, Elie, Jason Riis, and Paul Hamilton. "Emotiv Systems Inc.: It's the Thoughts that Count." Harvard Business School Case 510-050, October 2009. (Revised July 2012.)
      • October 2009
      • Article

      Managing Risk in the New World

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano and Michael Hofmann Jr.
      Five experts gathered recently to discuss the future of enterprise risk management: Kaplan, the Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School, who with his colleague David Norton developed the balanced scorecard; Mikes, an assistant professor at HBS who studies... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Risk Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Anette Mikes, Robert Simons, Peter Tufano, and Michael Hofmann Jr. "Managing Risk in the New World." Harvard Business Review 87, no. 10 (October 2009): 68–75.
      • September 2009 (Revised November 2010)
      • Case

      Marquee: The Business of Nightlife

      By: Anita Elberse, Ryan Barlow and Sheldon Wong
      In December 2008, nightlife impresario Noah Tepperberg celebrated the fifth anniversary of his New York City nightclub Marquee. While most clubs are over within their first one-and-a-half years, Tepperberg has succeeded in keeping Marquee one of NYC's hottest clubs for... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost Management; Marketing Strategy; Competitive Strategy
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      Elberse, Anita, Ryan Barlow, and Sheldon Wong. "Marquee: The Business of Nightlife." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 510-702, September 2009. (Revised November 2010.)
      • June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
      • Supplement

      Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
      Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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      Stafford, Erik, and Joel L. Heilprin. "Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 094-025, June 2009. (Revised March 2010.)
      • June 2009
      • Article

      Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman
      We report on a field study demonstrating systematic differences between the preferences people anticipate they will have over a series of options in the future and their subsequent revealed preferences over those options. Using a novel panel data set, we analyze the... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Film Entertainment; Demand and Consumers; Renting or Rental; Power and Influence; Prejudice and Bias; Online Technology; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Todd Rogers, and Max H. Bazerman. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals." Management Science 55, no. 6 (June 2009): 1047–1059.
      • 2009
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

      By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
      In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Central Banking; Interest Rates; International Finance; Policy; Crisis Management; Europe
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      Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." 2009. (Draft case.)
      • January 2009
      • Article

      Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

      By: Malcolm Baker, C. Fritz Foley and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capital markets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals. Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant of foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flows increase... View Details
      Keywords: Multinational Firms and Management; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Valuation; Capital Markets; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Stocks; Integration
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      Baker, Malcolm, C. Fritz Foley, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Multinationals as Arbitrageurs? The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment." Review of Financial Studies 22, no. 1 (January 2009): 337–369.
      • 2009
      • Article

      The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

      By: Walter Friedman
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics
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      Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
      • December 2008
      • Article

      Style Investing and Institutional Investors

      By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo
      This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry
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      Froot, Kenneth A., and Melvyn Teo. "Style Investing and Institutional Investors." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 43, no. 4 (December 2008): 883–906. (Revised from: Equity Style Returns and Institutional Investor Flows, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 04-048, June 2004.)
      • November 2008
      • Journal Article

      Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
      Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
      • September 2008 (Revised June 2011)
      • Case

      Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents

      By: Elie Ofek
      Marketers are often tasked with exploring the factors that impact the long-run adoption of a new product or technology. The new product under consideration here is the drug-eluting stent: a device which props open a clogged artery to the heart and then releases... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Adoption; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
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      Ofek, Elie. "Examining the Adoption of Drug-Eluting Stents." Harvard Business School Case 509-028, September 2008. (Revised June 2011.)
      • September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
      • Exercise

      Exercise on Estimation

      By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville
      This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics
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      Riis, Jason, and John T. Gourville. "Exercise on Estimation." Harvard Business School Exercise 509-022, September 2008. (Revised September 2010.)
      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts

      By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
      We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results... View Details
      Keywords: Earnings Management; Governing and Advisory Boards; Compensation and Benefits; Managerial Roles; Personal Development and Career
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      Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)
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