Publications

SSRN

30 Jun 2016
Working Paper Summaries

The Dyadic Ties of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment

Keywords: by Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong, and Gwen Yu; Financial Services

April–May 2017
Article

Career Concerns of Banking Analysts

By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Shan Wu

We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Analyst Forecasts; Analysts; Investment Recommendations; Career Advancement; Career Management; Labor Mobility; Labor Market; Prejudice and Bias; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Banking

SSRN

December 2013
Article

Legislating Stock Prices

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details

Keywords: Legislator Incentives; Voting; Return Predictability; Lobbying; Motivation and Incentives; Government Legislation; Stocks

04 Dec 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Pathways to Materiality: How Sustainability Issues Become Financially Material to Corporations and Their Investors

Keywords: by Jean Rogers and George Serafeim

Article

Getting the Most Out of Giving: Concretely Framing a Prosocial Goal Maximizes Happiness

By: Melanie Rudd, Jennifer Aaker and Michael I. Norton

Across six field and laboratory experiments, participants assigned a more concretely-framed prosocial goal (e.g., making someone smile or increasing recycling) felt happier and reported creating greater personal happiness after performing a goal-directed act of... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Goal Framing; Affective Forecasting; Goals and Objectives; Happiness; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving

April 2013
Case

Managing with Analytics at Procter & Gamble

By: Thomas H. Davenport, Marco Iansiti and Alain Serels

Senior management at P&G has put a strong emphasis on using data to make "better, smarter, real-time business decisions." The Global Business Services (GBS) organization has developed tools, systems and processes to provide managers throughout P&G with direct access to... View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Data Management; Forecasting; Shared Services; Procter ＆ Gamble; Laundry Detergent; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Mathematical Methods; Consumer Products Industry; North America

Educators

Purchase

Teaching Interest

Overview

Paul is primarily interested in teaching data science to management students through the case method. This includes technical topics (programming and statistics) as well as higher-level management issues (digital transformation, data governance, etc.) As a research... View Details

Keywords: A/B Testing; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Algorithm; Algorithm Bias; Algorithmic Bias; Algorithmic Fairness; Algorithms; Analytics; Application Program Interface; Artificial Intelligence; Causality; Causal Inference; Computing; Computers; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Architecture; Data As A Service; Data Centers; Data Governance; Data Labeling; Data Management; Data Manipulation; Data Mining; Data Ownership; Data Privacy; Data Protection; Data Science; Data Science And Analytics Management; Data Scientists; Data Security; Data Sharing; Data Strategy; Data Visualization; Database; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Data-driven Operations; Datathon; Economics Of AI; Economics Of Innovation; Economics Of Information System; Economics Of Science; Forecast; Forecast Accuracy; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Information Technology; Machine Learning; Machine Learning Models; Prediction; Prediction Error; Predictive Analytics; Predictive Models; Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Applications and Software; Digital Transformation; Information Management; Digital Strategy; Technology Adoption

2010
Other Unpublished Work

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation

SSRN

April 2012
Article

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Stock Shares; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Policy; Profit

Winter 2022
Article

Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton

The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business

2007
Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman

A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career

10 May 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Inertia and Market Power

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer

Article

Consumer Neuroscience: Advances in Understanding Consumer Psychology

By: Uma R. Karmarkar and Carolyn Yoon

While the study of consumer behavior has been enriched by improved abilities to generate new insights, many of the mechanisms underlying judgments and decision making remain difficult to investigate. In this review, we highlight some of the ways in which our... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Neuroscience; Neuroscience; Neuroeconomics; Consumer Psychology; Customer Behavior; Predictive Analytics; Neural Prediction; Neuroimaging; fMRI; Eye-tracking; Consumer Behavior; Marketing

Research Summary

The Role of Financial and Information Intermediaries in the Capital Markets

Hutton's research investigates the role of financial analysts and short sellers in the pricing of equity securities. Recently, Hutton examines (with Patricia Dechow and Richard Sloan) the role of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts in the pricing of common equity... View Details

08 Nov 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Managers' Cultural Background and Disclosure Attributes

Keywords: by Francois Brochet, Gregory S. Miller, Patricia Naranjo, and Gwen Yu

March 2004 (Revised March 2007)
Case

Paper and More

Provides a context and exercise for introducing retail inventory management, including cost optimization, service-level criteria, and forecasting in single and multiproduct settings. The owner of a single-location paper and paper products store considers the... View Details

Keywords: Management; Expansion; Logistics; Forecasting and Prediction; Pulp and Paper Industry; Pulp and Paper Industry

Educators

Purchase

October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
Case

Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India

By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh

Brinda Patel, director of oral care products for the India division of a consumer home-care product company, develops a data-driven marketing plan for toothbrushes. She believes her plan can support a 20% increase in unit sales based on rising demand for modern... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning ＆ Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Advertising; Product Launch; Budgets and Budgeting; Product Development; Consumer Products Industry; Health Industry; India