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(2,882)
- News (476)
- Research (2,210)
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- Faculty Publications (1,425)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,882)
- News (476)
- Research (2,210)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,425)
- December 2019
- Case
Forecasting ClimaCell
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details
Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy
Krieger, Joshua Lev, Christopher Stanton, and James Barnett. "Forecasting ClimaCell." Harvard Business School Case 820-044, December 2019.
- 2019
- Working Paper
Soul and Machine (Learning)
By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media... View Details
Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-036, September 2019.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Finance Without Exotic Risk
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer
We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta, and Andrei Shleifer. "Finance Without Exotic Risk." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33004, September 2024.
- July – August 2008
- Article
When Virtue Is a Vice
By: Anat Keinan and Ran Kivetz
Choosing duty over pleasure today can cause regret down the road—whereas regret over the reverse is fleeting. Marketers of luxury products and services should consider prompting customers to predict their future feelings about choices made now. View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Moral Sensibility; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emotions; Luxury
Keinan, Anat, and Ran Kivetz. "When Virtue Is a Vice." HBS Centennial Issue Harvard Business Review 86, nos. 7/8 (July–August 2008): 22.
- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong
Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details
DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan, and Jordan Tong. "Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers." Working Paper, May 2025.
Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers
1. Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing
By: Samuel Antill
I develop a dynamic model of investment timing in which firms must first choose when to search for external financing. Search is costly and the arrival of investors is uncertain, leading to delay in financing and investment. Depending on parameters, my model can... View Details
Keywords: Real Options; Search And Bargaining; Time-varying Financial Conditions; Investment; Venture Capital; Mathematical Methods
Antill, Samuel. "Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing." Working Paper, December 2017.
- October 2000
- Article
The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details
Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 55, no. 5 (October 2000): 2219–57.
- December 2023
- Article
Save More Today or Tomorrow: The Role of Urgency in Precommitment Design
By: Joseph Reiff, Hengchen Dai, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman and Shlomo Benartzi
To encourage farsighted behaviors, past research suggests that marketers may be wise to invite consumers to pre-commit to adopt them “later.” However, the authors propose that people will draw different inferences from different types of pre-commitment offers, and that... View Details
Reiff, Joseph, Hengchen Dai, John Beshears, Katherine L. Milkman, and Shlomo Benartzi. "Save More Today or Tomorrow: The Role of Urgency in Precommitment Design." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 60, no. 6 (December 2023): 1095–1113.
- 03 Mar 2014
- Research & Ideas
Facebook’s Future
Editor's note: Now 10 years old, Facebook's growth is starting to slow. That's one reason it purchased What'sApp last month in a jaw-dropping deal valued at $19 billion. What might the next decade be like? Harvard Business School Associate Professor Mikolaj Piskorski,... View Details
Keywords: by Mikolaj Piskorski
- 08 Dec 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Decoding Inside Information
- October 2019
- Article
Making Sense of Recommendations
By: Michael Yeomans, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan and Jon Kleinberg
Computer algorithms are increasingly being used to predict people's preferences and make recommendations. Although people frequently encounter these algorithms because they are cheap to scale, we do not know how they compare to human judgment. Here, we compare computer... View Details
Keywords: Recommender Systems; Artificial Intelligence; Interpretability; Information Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Making; Attitudes
Yeomans, Michael, Anuj Shah, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Jon Kleinberg. "Making Sense of Recommendations." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 32, no. 4 (October 2019): 403–414.
- Article
Measuring Audit Quality
By: Shivaram Rajgopal, Suraj Srinivasan and Xin Zheng
In this paper, we document 45 specific allegations related to audit deficiencies based on GAAS, as detailed in 141 AAERs and 153 securities class action lawsuits over the violation years 1978–2016. Next, we use these allegations to validate existing popular proxies of... View Details
Keywords: Audit Quality; Audit Deficiency; AAER; Securities Class Action Lawsuits; Enforcement; Accounting Audits; Quality; Measurement and Metrics
Rajgopal, Shivaram, Suraj Srinivasan, and Xin Zheng. "Measuring Audit Quality." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 2 (June 2021): 559–619.
- 2019
- Book
The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power
By: Shoshana Zuboff
In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Profiling; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Power and Influence; Ethics; Society; Transformation
Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
- Forthcoming
- Article
An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces
By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details
Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) (forthcoming). (Pre-published online February 12, 2025.)
- fall 2007
- Article
The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules
By: Josh Lerner, Marcin Strojwas and Jean Tirole
Patent pools are an important but little-studied economic institution. In this paper, we first make a set of predictions about the licensing terms associated with patent pools. The theoretical framework predicts that (a) pools consisting of complementary patents are... View Details
Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Patents; Rights
Lerner, Josh, Marcin Strojwas, and Jean Tirole. "The Design of Patent Pools: The Determinants of Licensing Rules." RAND Journal of Economics 38, no. 3 (fall 2007): 610–625. (Earlier version distributed as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 9680.)
- August 2017
- Article
Is the SEC Captured? Evidence from Comment-Letter Reviews
By: Jonas Heese, Mozaffar Khan and Karthik Ramanna
SEC oversight of publicly listed firms ranges from comment letter (CL) reviews of firms’ reporting compliance to pursuing enforcement actions against violators. Prior literature finds that firm political connections (PC) negatively predict enforcement actions,... View Details
Keywords: Comment Letters; Political Connections; Regulatory Capture; SEC Enforcement; Government Administration; Business and Government Relations; Government and Politics
Heese, Jonas, Mozaffar Khan, and Karthik Ramanna. "Is the SEC Captured? Evidence from Comment-Letter Reviews." Journal of Accounting & Economics 64, no. 1 (August 2017). (Revised June 2017.)