Publications

2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2012
Article

How to Make Finance Work

By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein

Once a sleepy old boys' club, the U.S. financial sector is now a dynamic and growing business that attracts the best and the brightest. It is tempting to declare the industry a roaring success. But its purpose is to serve the needs of U.S. households and firms, and by... View Details

Keywords: Business Ventures; Value; Competitive Advantage; Investment; Performance Evaluation; Household; Financial Crisis; Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States

2024
Working Paper

Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds

By: Marco Sammon and Chris Murray

We document the effects of mechanical buying by CRSP-index-tracking funds on post-IPO returns and IPO deal structure. Leveraging a difference-in-differences-style design built on a 2017 CRSP rule change, we find that expected index fund demand leads fast track IPOs to... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Financial Markets

SSRN

August 2001 (Revised March 2016)
Case

Doral Costa

By: William J. Poorvu, John H. Vogel Jr., Arthur I. Segel and Amy Silverstein

Doral Costa is a proposed 277,803 square foot Class A office park development in Miami, FL. Trammell Crow Co. would like to develop this office park in joint venture with a partner. Samantha Spar, the acquisitions partner at Titan Associates, a large real estate... View Details

Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; Joint Ventures; Acquisition; Investment; Partners and Partnerships; Decision Choices and Conditions; Fair Value Accounting; Construction; Property; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry; Miami

01 Dec 2003
What Do You Think?

Is This the Twilight Era for the Managed Mutual Fund?

probably seen the beginning of the decline of the actively managed mutual fund," Charles Broming expressed the hope that "money management will become another technical job and compensation will reflect its real added... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

November 2003
Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

November 2006 (Revised January 2007)
Case

Habitat for Humanity International in South Africa

By: Nicolas P. Retsinas, Arthur I Segel and Nelson Hioe

In March 2006, Larry English, Director of Program Design and Innovation for Habitat for Humanity International Africa and the Middle East, was reflecting on a large development project in Durbin that had stalled. Notwithstanding global attention led by former President... View Details

Keywords: Partners and Partnerships; Investment; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Social Entrepreneurship; Poverty; Property; Projects; South Africa; Middle East

26 Sep 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, September 26, 2017

purchases of Australian land and real estate. As a foreign-owned company, AACo was likely to face more rigorous screenings and oversight as it grew. How could Dissanayake best manage Tavistock's investment... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

28 Aug 2006
Research & Ideas

Online Match-Making with Virtual Dates

match, the couple meets over their computers for a five-minute Virtual Date, a kind of online ice-breaker that allows two people to communicate in real time using colors, words, and images. In the process of using Virtual Dates, couples... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Publishing

September 2010
Article

Bank Lending During the Financial Crisis of 2008

By: Victoria Ivashina and David S. Scharfstein

This paper documents that new loans to large borrowers fell by 47% during the peak period of the financial crisis (fourth quarter of 2008) relative to the prior quarter and by 79% relative to the peak of the credit boom (second quarter of 2007). New lending for real... View Details

Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Financing and Loans; Credit; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Crisis; Banking Industry

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

June 2012
Article

Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Government bonds comove more strongly with bond-like stocks: stocks of large, mature, low-volatility, profitable, dividend-paying firms that are neither high growth nor distressed. Variables derived from the yield curve that are already known to predict returns on... View Details

Keywords: Relationships; Bonds; Stocks; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Profit

06 Dec 2011
Op-Ed

Greater Fiscal Integration Best Solution for Euro Crisis

that choke the real economy and reinforce a spiral of lower or negative growth. For all the difficulties and risks, there may yet be a positive resolution to this crisis for one simple reason: the stakes are too high in this game of... View Details

Keywords: by Dante Roscini

February 2010
Case

Shurgard Self-Storage: Expansion to Europe (Abridged)

By: Richard G. Hamermesh

Shurgard, a U.S.-based firm that rents storage facilities to consumers and small businesses, is considering financing options for rapid expansion of its European operations. Five years after entering Europe, Shurgard Europe has opened 17 facilities in Belgium, France,... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Business Growth and Maturation; Multinational Firms and Management; Logistics; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Trade; Equity; Corporate Finance; United States; Europe

September 2024 (Revised May 2025)
Case

Carrie Wang: Choosing Between the Family Firm and the Family Spirit

By: Lauren Cohen, Fei Wu and Sophia Pan

Carrie Wang, Investment Head of the Wang’s single-family office, contemplated her next career steps. As one of the first businessmen who had risen from China’s industrial rise, her father had grown his wealth to a considerable level, eventually requesting that his... View Details

Keywords: Family Office; Interests Of Consumers; Family Business; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Financial Markets; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Private Equity; Customer Relationship Management; Interests; Reputation; Work-Life Balance; Real Estate Industry; China

02 Jan 2024
Research & Ideas

10 Trends to Watch in 2024

The lightning-fast ascent of generative AI isn’t the only sea change on the horizon for businesses in the new year. The global economy is in flux as war, climate change, trade issues, and infrastructure problems demand attention. Many companies continue to struggle to... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

December 2021 (Revised January 2023)
Supplement

Katerra (B)

By: Lindsay N. Hyde, Thomas R. Eisenmann and Tom Quinn

In May 2020, SoftBank executives, having invested nearly $2 billion in Katerra, decided the vision of an end-to-end, vertically-integrated construction process was worth saving—with some major changes to company structure. The SoftBank Vision Fund invested $200 million... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Failure; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Entrepreneurship; Construction; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Industry; United States