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Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

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We the Possibility

Can we solve big public problems anymore? Yes, we can. The huge challenges we face are daunting indeed. At the same time, we've come to accept the sad notion that government can't do new things or solve tough problems—it's too big, too slow, and mired in... View Details

Organizational Design and Control Across Multiple Markets: The Case of Franchising in the Convenience Store Industry

Many companies operate units that are dispersed across different types of markets, serving significantly diverging customer bases. Such dispersion is likely to compromise headquarters' ability to control local managers' behavior and satisfy the needs of different... View Details

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

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Article

Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal

By: Rafael Di Tella and Julio J. Rotemberg

We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice... View Details

Keywords: Populism; Corruption; Betrayal; Incompetence; Voting; Attitudes

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2019
Working Paper

The Impact of Increasing Search Frictions on Online Shopping Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment

By: Donald Ngwe, Kris J. Ferreira and Thales Teixeira

Many online stores are designed such that shoppers can easily access any available discounted products. We propose that deliberately increasing search frictions by placing small obstacles to locating discounted items can improve online retailers’ margins and even... View Details

Keywords: E-commerce; Online Retailing; Friction; Effor; Search Costs; Price Discrimination; Consumer Behavior; Price; Search Technology

2016
Working Paper

Paying (for) Attention: The Impact of Information Processing Costs on Bayesian Inference

By: Scott Duke Kominers, Xiaosheng Mu and Alexander Peysakhovich

Human information processing is often modeled as costless Bayesian inference. However, research in psychology shows that attention is a computationally costly and potentially limited resource. We study a Bayesian individual for whom computing posterior beliefs is... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Economics

November 2009
Article

Organizational Design and Control across Multiple Markets: The Case of Franchising in the Convenience Store Industry

By: Dennis Campbell, Srikant M. Datar and Tatiana Sandino

Many companies operate units that are dispersed across different types of markets, and thus serve significantly diverging customer bases. Such market-type dispersion is likely to compromise the headquarter's ability to control its local managers' behavior and satisfy... View Details

Keywords: Market Dispersion; Decentralization; Incentives; Business Headquarters; Geographic Location; Governance Controls; Distribution; Organizational Design; Franchise Ownership; Retail Industry

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2008
Working Paper

Organizational Design and Control across Multiple Markets: The Case of Franchising in the Convenience Store Industry

By: Dennis Campbell

Many companies operate units which are dispersed across different types of markets, and thus serve significantly diverging customer bases. Such market-type dispersion is likely to compromise the headquarters' ability to control its local managers' behavior and... View Details

Keywords: Business Headquarters; Customer Focus and Relationships; Geographic Location; Governance Controls; Organizational Design; Franchise Ownership; Retail Industry

February 2025
Tutorial

Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon

In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details

Keywords: Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

Research Summary

Social Choice and Voting Rules

By: Jerry R. Green

This research program is based on the idea that good voting systems should take into account the frequency with which different choice problems arise. Traditional social choice theory requires properties over a fixed domain of choice problems but does not offer the... View Details

Article

Delayed-Response Strategies in Repeated Games with Observation Lags

By: Drew Fudenberg, Yuhta Ishii and Scott Duke Kominers

We extend the folk theorem of repeated games to two settings in which players' information about others' play arrives with stochastic lags. In our first model, signals are almost-perfect if and when they do arrive, that is, each player either observes an almost-perfect... View Details

Keywords: ＂Repeated Games＂; Folk Theorem; Private Monitoring; Observation Lag; Game Theory

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Research Summary

The Role of Suggested Pricing in Retail

Does a $100 shirt seem more valuable when its price tag shows a 50 discount off an original price of $200? Pricing information in retail settings often has three components: an original price, a percent discount, and the final price. Little empirical evidence exists... View Details

Article

Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship

By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky

Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and... View Details

Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions

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July 2015
Article

Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk

By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith

We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture

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December 2011
Article

CEO and Board Chair Roles: To Split or Not to Split?

By: Aiyesha Dey, Ellen Engel and Xiaohui Liu

We examine the performance and compensation implications of firms' decisions to combine the roles of CEO and board chairman (duality). We document that firms that split the CEO and chairman positions due to investor pressure have significantly lower announcement... View Details

Keywords: CEO Duality; Board Chairman; Firm Performance; Pay-performance Sensitivity; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leadership; Performance Efficiency

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January 2011
Article

Good Intentions, Optimistic Self-Predictions, and Missed Opportunities

By: Derek Koehler, Rebecca White and Leslie K. John

Self-predictions are highly sensitive to current intentions but often largely insensitive to factors influencing the readiness with which those intentions are translated into future behavior. When such factors are under a person's control, they could be used to... View Details

Keywords: Planning; Saving; Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

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September 2019 (Revised June 2021)
Case

Blenheim Chalcot

By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock

In April 2019, Manoj Badale and Charles Mindenhall, co-founders of Blenheim Chalcot, were contemplating how they might go about developing their portfolio. Since founding the company as an internet consultancy called netdecisions in 1998, Badale and Mindenhall had... View Details

Keywords: Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; United Kingdom; United States; India

Research Summary

When Cultural Worlds Collide: Investigating the Cross-Cultural Multiple Audience Problem

Today, many individuals have social networks that span cultural boundaries. For example, you may have a network of colleagues in China, friends and family in the U.S., and a group of childhood friends in Greece. Chances are, you are probably comfortable interacting... View Details

Keywords: Cross-cultural Networks; Multiple Audience Problem; Managing Multiple Identities

August 2016
Article

Asymmetric Effects of Favorable and Unfavorable Information on Decision-making Under Ambiguity

By: Alexander Peysakhovich and Uma R. Karmarkar

Most daily decisions involve uncertainty about outcome probabilities arising from incomplete knowledge, i.e., ambiguity. We explore how the addition of partial information affects these types of choices using theoretical and empirical methods. Our experiments in both... View Details

Keywords: Ambiguity; Decision Making; Outcomes; Information; Decision Choices and Conditions; Outcome or Result

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