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- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- Research Summary
The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
- Forthcoming
- Article
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details
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