Publications

2022
Working Paper

Values as Luxury Goods and Political Polarization

By: Benjamin Enke, Mattias Polborn and Alex A Wu

Motivated by novel survey evidence, this paper develops a theory of political behavior in which values are a luxury good: the relative weight voters place on values rather than material considerations increases in income. The model predicts (i) voters who are... View Details

Keywords: Political Polarization; Government and Politics; Moral Sensibility; Luxury; Values and Beliefs; Voting

December 2009
Article

Catering Through Nominal Share Prices

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering incentives... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
Case

SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation

By: Brian Trelstad and Bonnie Yining Cao

Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART), a set of software and analytical tools designed for the purpose of wildlife conservation, had demonstrated significant improvements in patrol coverage, with some observed reductions in poaching and contributing to wildlife... View Details

Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets; Technology Adoption; Strategy; Management; Ethics; Social Enterprise; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Natural Environment; Technology Industry; Cambodia; United States; Africa

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Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

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Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic

Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details

Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History

Article

Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R

By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor

This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Employee Stock Ownership Plan

Research Summary

The Role of Financial and Information Intermediaries in the Capital Markets

Hutton's research investigates the role of financial analysts and short sellers in the pricing of equity securities. Recently, Hutton examines (with Patricia Dechow and Richard Sloan) the role of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts in the pricing of common equity... View Details

Research Summary

Implications of Limits of Arbitrage (with James Choi)

In this project we investigate the relationship between limits to arbitrage facing mutual fund managers and asset pricing anomalies. We measure changes in the limits to arbitrage by computing the average of slopes on current and past returns in quarterly... View Details

August–September 2012
Article

The Future of Boards: Meeting the Governance Challenges of the 21st Century

By: Jay W. Lorsch

Predicting the challenges boards will face in the years ahead requires an understanding of how they and the governance they have provided has evolved in past years, as well as the challenges they face in the years ahead. Since I have been serving on and doing research... View Details

Keywords: Boards Of Directors; Corporate Governance; Governance; Succession; Compensation; Governing and Advisory Boards

09 Jun 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott

07 Apr 2003
What Do You Think?

Should Global Business Initiatives Be Devalued?

recently, has been unthinkable: that global initiatives in many cases should be devalued, discounted, or postponed in relation to more predictable business investments "closer to home?" What do you think? View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

Winter 2016
Article

Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi

We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry

23 Aug 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson

1994
Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford

Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

December 2002 (Revised February 2003)
Case

Broken Trust: Role of Professionals in the Enron Debacle

By: Ashish Nanda

Discusses the role of professionals in the Enron debacle. Argues that professionals failed to prevent or predict Enron's collapse because of the conflicts of interest they faced. Concludes with observations on management and regulation of conflicts of interest facing... View Details

Keywords: Conflict of Interests; Trust; Management Teams; Energy Industry

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26 Nov 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

May 2012
Article

Complicated Firms

By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou

We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods