Publications

25 Apr 2007
Research & Ideas

Feeling Stuck? Getting Past Impasse

the crisis. We realize that our old ways are not working. It's not a matter of staying up late, working harder, and getting in earlier. Emotionally there's the feeling of being stuck. And then some predictable things happen in the second... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

LendingClub (A): Data Analytic Thinking (Abridged)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

LendingClub was founded in 2006 as an alternative, peer-to-peer lending model to connect individual borrowers to individual investor-lenders through an online platform. Since 2014 the company has worked with institutional investors at scale. While the company assigns... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Investing; Loans; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Model

Educators

Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl

Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details

Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets

Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic

Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details

Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History

Article

Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R

By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor

This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Employee Stock Ownership Plan

July 1986 (Revised August 1987)
Background Note

Note on Comparative Advantage

By: David B. Yoffie and John J. Coleman

Discusses David Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage and the refinement of his model developed by Eli Heckscher and Bertil Ohlin. Presents several criticisms of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, including Wassily Leontief's empirical demonstration that the nature of... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics; Trade; Theory

Educators

23 Aug 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson

1994
Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford

Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

26 Nov 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller

08 Nov 2018
Cold Call Podcast

Could Big Data Replace the Creative Director at the Gap?

Keywords: Re: Ayelet Israeli; Fashion; Retail

2008
Working Paper

Catering through Nominal Share Prices

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

Register to Read

October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
Case

SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation

By: Brian Trelstad and Bonnie Yining Cao

Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART), a set of software and analytical tools designed for the purpose of wildlife conservation, had demonstrated significant improvements in patrol coverage, with some observed reductions in poaching and contributing to wildlife... View Details

Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets; Technology Adoption; Strategy; Management; Ethics; Social Enterprise; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Natural Environment; Technology Industry; Cambodia; United States; Africa

Educators

09 Jun 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott

December 2012
Article

Behavioral Ethics: Toward a Deeper Understanding of Moral Judgment and Dishonesty

By: Max Bazerman and Francesca Gino

Early research and teaching on ethics focused on either a moral development perspective or philosophical approaches, and used a normative approach by focusing on the question of how people should act when resolving ethical dilemmas. In this paper, we briefly describe... View Details

Keywords: Ethical Decision Making; Corruption; Unethical Behavior; Behavioral Decision Research; Behavior; Ethics

27 Feb 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

Keywords: by Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen; Motion Pictures & Video

2010
Working Paper

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski

Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Market Transactions

May 2012
Article

Complicated Firms

By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou

We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods