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  • All HBS Web  (2,967)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,199)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,430)
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Values as Luxury Goods and Political Polarization

By: Benjamin Enke, Mattias Polborn and Alex A Wu
Motivated by novel survey evidence, this paper develops a theory of political behavior in which values are a luxury good: the relative weight voters place on values rather than material considerations increases in income. The model predicts (i) voters who are... View Details
Keywords: Political Polarization; Government and Politics; Moral Sensibility; Luxury; Values and Beliefs; Voting
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Enke, Benjamin, Mattias Polborn, and Alex A Wu. "Values as Luxury Goods and Political Polarization." Working Paper, April 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
  • December 2009
  • Article

Catering Through Nominal Share Prices

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler
We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuation on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels, and vice-versa. Using measures of time-varying catering incentives... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment; Investment Return; Price; Theory; Valuation
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Baker, Malcolm, Robin Greenwood, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Catering Through Nominal Share Prices." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2559–2590. (Internet Appendix.)
  • 31 Oct 2004
  • What Do You Think?

Should the Wisdom of Crowds Influence Our Thinking About Leadership?

have been found to be better than a few experts at everything from estimating the true magnitude of things (as in guessing the number of jelly beans in a jar) to diagnosing causes of problems (as in determining that the O-ring seals were the primary cause of the... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 2007
  • Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career
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Friedman, Walter A. "Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-037, November 2007.
  • 25 Apr 2007
  • Research & Ideas

Feeling Stuck? Getting Past Impasse

the crisis. We realize that our old ways are not working. It's not a matter of staying up late, working harder, and getting in earlier. Emotionally there's the feeling of being stuck. And then some predictable things happen in the second... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
  • October 2010
  • Article

Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

By: Eric Van den Steen
This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture-in the sense of shared beliefs and values in order to study the effects of "culture clash" in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared... View Details
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Organizational Culture; Economics; Information Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Mergers and Acquisitions; Framework; Satisfaction; Motivation and Incentives; Power and Influence; Communication
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Van den Steen, Eric. "Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity." Management Science 56, no. 10 (October 2010): 1718–1738.
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Decoding Inside Information

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Market Transactions
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Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 16454, October 2010. (Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research. Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance.)
  • Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
  • Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
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Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
  • Article

Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R

By: Ian D. Gow, Mary E. Barth and Daniel Taylor
This study examines how key market participants—managers and analysts—responded to SFAS 123R's controversial requirement that firms recognize stock-based compensation expense. Despite mandated recognition of the expense, some firms' managers exclude it from pro forma... View Details
Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Employee Stock Ownership Plan
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Gow, Ian D., Mary E. Barth, and Daniel Taylor. "Why Do Pro Forma and Street Earnings Not Reflect Changes in GAAP? Evidence from SFAS 123R." Review of Accounting Studies 17, no. 3 (September 2012): 526–562.
  • 07 Apr 2003
  • What Do You Think?

Should Global Business Initiatives Be Devalued?

recently, has been unthinkable: that global initiatives in many cases should be devalued, discounted, or postponed in relation to more predictable business investments "closer to home?" What do you think? View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • October 2022 (Revised December 2022)
  • Case

SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation

By: Brian Trelstad and Bonnie Yining Cao
Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART), a set of software and analytical tools designed for the purpose of wildlife conservation, had demonstrated significant improvements in patrol coverage, with some observed reductions in poaching and contributing to wildlife... View Details
Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets; Technology Adoption; Strategy; Management; Ethics; Social Enterprise; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Natural Environment; Technology Industry; Cambodia; United States; Africa
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Trelstad, Brian, and Bonnie Yining Cao. "SMART: AI and Machine Learning for Wildlife Conservation." Harvard Business School Case 323-036, October 2022. (Revised December 2022.)
  • 2024
  • Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
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Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
  • 23 Aug 2013
  • Working Paper Summaries

Waves in Ship Prices and Investment

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson
  • 1994
  • Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford
Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry
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Bozic, Kevin J., J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff, and David Bradford. "Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism." Journal of Spinal Disorders & Techniques 7, no. 2 (1994): 102–110.
  • 26 Nov 2018
  • Working Paper Summaries

Demand Estimation in Models of Imperfect Competition

Keywords: by Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
  • 08 Nov 2018
  • Cold Call Podcast

Could Big Data Replace the Creative Director at the Gap?

Keywords: Re: Ayelet Israeli; Fashion; Retail
  • May 2012
  • Article

Complicated Firms

By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou
We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods
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Cohen, Lauren, and Dong Lou. "Complicated Firms." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012). (Winner of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Anniversary Best Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Istanbul Stock Exchange. Winner of Center for Research in Security Prices Forum. Best Paper Prize presented by University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Winner of Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Academic Grant presented by Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Winner of Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing presented by PanAgora Asset Management, Inc.)
  • 09 Jun 2020
  • Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott
  • Winter 2016
  • Article

Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry
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Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
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