Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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July 2021 (Revised December 2021)
Case

Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade (A)

By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira, Dean Xu and Lucas Baker

This case explores the decision that Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, was considering in late February 2020 about hedging the exposure of the fund’s portfolio from the potential financial fallout ensuing from an extreme event like... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Financial Liquidity; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk Management

July 2003
Article

Probabilistic Representation of Complexity

By: Nabil I Al-Najjar, Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Emre Ozdenoren

We study individuals' behavior in an environment that is deterministic, but too complex to permit tractable deterministic representation. Under mild conditions, behavior is represented by a unique probabilistic model in which the agent's inability to think through all... View Details

Keywords: Complexity; Behavior; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Planning

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Research Summary

Works in Progress

"Hunkering Down and Venturing Out: Network Activation in Response to the Uncertainty of Organizational Restructuring." Under Review. Awarded Best Paper in Organizational Behavior: 2011 Trans-Atlantic... View Details

October 2002 (Revised December 2003)
Case

Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Brian DeLacey

The CEO of a two-year-old start-up must now decide whether to become a technology provider or a service agency. In a time of enormous uncertainty about the viability of various business models for Internet-delivered services and products, Collabrys has survived the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Internet and the Web; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits; Partners and Partnerships; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Corporate Finance; United States

June 2019
Article

Fraud Allegations and Government Contracting

By: Jonas Heese and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos

This paper examines whether fraud allegations affect firms’ contracting with the government. Using a dataset of whistleblower allegations brought under the False Claims Act against firms accused of defrauding the government, we find that federal agencies do not reduce... View Details

Keywords: Whistleblower; Fraud Allegations; False Claims Act; Government Contracting; Risk Allocation; Government and Politics; Contracts; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations

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February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

BUA Group

By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal

BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital... View Details

Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa

21 Aug 2018
News

Cultivate Curiosity

2006
Book

Science Business: The Promise, the Reality, and the Future of Biotech

By: Gary P. Pisano

Why has the biotechnology industry failed to perform up to expectations—despite all its promise? In Science Business, Gary P. Pisano answers this question by providing an incisive critique of the industry. Pisano not only reveals the underlying causes of... View Details

Keywords: Science; Business Ventures; Biotechnology Industry

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February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
Case

Science Technology Co.--1985

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry

Research Summary

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

By: Laura Alfaro

We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details

December 1988
Article

Ordinal Independence in Non-Linear Utility Theory

By: Jerry R. Green and Bruno Jullien

Individual behavior under uncertainty is characterized using a new axiom, ordinal independence, which is a weakened form of the von Neumann-Morgcnslern independence axiom. It states that if two distributions share a tail in common, then this tail can be modified... View Details

Keywords: Preferences

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October 6, 2020
Article

COVID-19 Is Rewriting the Rules of Corporate Governance

By: Lynn S. Paine

Boards are facing a complex new reality as a result of COVID-19. The new environment is characterized by pressures and demands from various stakeholder groups, heightened expectations for societal engagement and corporate citizenship, and radical uncertainty about the... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards

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2014
Working Paper

Further Evidence on Consequences of Debt Covenant Violations

By: Yu Gao, Mozaffar N. Khan and Liang Tan

We present new evidence on debt covenant violation (DCV) consequences that have not previously been examined in the literature. In particular, we show that a DCV triggers significant information asymmetry and uncertainty on the part of shareholders and auditors as... View Details

Keywords: Accounting

Article

'Making Book Against Oneself,' the Independence Axiom, and Non-Linear Utility Theory

By: Jerry R. Green

An individual with known preferences over lotteries can be led to accept random wealth distributions different from his initial endowment by a sequential process in which some uncertainty is resolved and he is offered a new lottery in place of the remaining... View Details

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1977
Working Paper

Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

By: Jerry R. Green

A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details

Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty

March 2018
Case

Lufax: FinTech and the Transformation of Wealth Management in China

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Anthony K. Woo

This case examines the rise and competitive positioning of Lufax, an online marketplace headquartered in Shanghai, China, and a pioneer in the origination and trading of financial assets. The company had grown at a remarkable rate, and was awarded “Trading Platform of... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Internet and the Web; Competitive Strategy; Situation or Environment; Product Positioning; Financial Services Industry; China

December 1994 (Revised December 1994)
Case

Physician Sales and Service, Inc. (A): June 1992

A medical products distribution company faces strategic opportunities and challenges in a rapidly changing market. Physician Sales and Service (PSS), founded by Patrick Kelly in 1983, operates in 20 states in the United States and intends to expand to 50 states by... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Distribution Industry

17 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Technology Choice and Capacity Portfolios Under Emissions Regulation

Keywords: by David Drake, Paul R. Kleindorfer & Luk N. Van Wassenhove

February 2021 (Revised June 2021)
Case

Bairong and the Promise of Big Data

By: Lauren Cohen, Xiaoyan Zhang and Spencer C.N. Hagist

Bairong CEO Felix Zhang, in launching his credit scoring start-up that incorporates 74,000 variables per individual, found strong initial success. However, the shifting regulatory environment, growing breadth of competitors, difficulties in retaining top talent, and... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Big Data; Artificial Intelligence; Credit Scoring; Finance; Credit; Business Startups; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; China

August 2020
Case

Ready for Take-Off at Jet It

By: Gary P. Pisano, Hise Gibson and Nicole Gilmore

This case examines the business model and growth of a start-up company in the private aviation industry. In June 2020, amidst the COVID crisis, the company's co-founder and CEO must make a decision regarding an order of new jets that will significantly expand the... View Details

Keywords: Capacity Planning; Business Startups; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Air Transportation Industry

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