Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

BUA Group

By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal

BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital... View Details

Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa

21 Aug 2018
News

Cultivate Curiosity

2006
Book

Science Business: The Promise, the Reality, and the Future of Biotech

By: Gary P. Pisano

Why has the biotechnology industry failed to perform up to expectations—despite all its promise? In Science Business, Gary P. Pisano answers this question by providing an incisive critique of the industry. Pisano not only reveals the underlying causes of... View Details

Keywords: Science; Business Ventures; Biotechnology Industry

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06 Oct 2020
News

Covid-19 Is Rewriting the Rules of Corporate Governance

November 2010 (Revised December 2010)
Case

Mid-Missouri Energy: Ethanol from Corn

By: Forest L. Reinhardt, Noel Michele Holbrook, James Weber and Karla Sartor

Mid-Missouri Energy (MME) is a farmer-owned cooperative that produces ethanol from corn. The cooperative has performed well in comparison to other producers, but margins in the industry had declined as industry production levels neared market demand limits. MME farmers... View Details

Keywords: Agribusiness; Renewable Energy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Growth and Development Strategy; Cooperative Ownership; Business and Government Relations; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States

March 2018
Case

Lufax: FinTech and the Transformation of Wealth Management in China

By: Christopher J. Malloy, Lauren H. Cohen and Anthony K. Woo

This case examines the rise and competitive positioning of Lufax, an online marketplace headquartered in Shanghai, China, and a pioneer in the origination and trading of financial assets. The company had grown at a remarkable rate, and was awarded “Trading Platform of... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Internet and the Web; Competitive Strategy; Situation or Environment; Product Positioning; Financial Services Industry; China

December 1994 (Revised December 1994)
Case

Physician Sales and Service, Inc. (A): June 1992

A medical products distribution company faces strategic opportunities and challenges in a rapidly changing market. Physician Sales and Service (PSS), founded by Patrick Kelly in 1983, operates in 20 states in the United States and intends to expand to 50 states by... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Growth and Development Strategy; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Distribution Industry

1977
Working Paper

Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

By: Jerry R. Green

A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details

Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty

17 Apr 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Technology Choice and Capacity Portfolios Under Emissions Regulation

Keywords: by David Drake, Paul R. Kleindorfer & Luk N. Van Wassenhove

February 2021 (Revised June 2021)
Case

Bairong and the Promise of Big Data

By: Lauren Cohen, Xiaoyan Zhang and Spencer C.N. Hagist

Bairong CEO Felix Zhang, in launching his credit scoring start-up that incorporates 74,000 variables per individual, found strong initial success. However, the shifting regulatory environment, growing breadth of competitors, difficulties in retaining top talent, and... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Big Data; Artificial Intelligence; Credit Scoring; Finance; Credit; Business Startups; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; China

August 2020
Case

Ready for Take-Off at Jet It

By: Gary P. Pisano, Hise Gibson and Nicole Gilmore

This case examines the business model and growth of a start-up company in the private aviation industry. In June 2020, amidst the COVID crisis, the company's co-founder and CEO must make a decision regarding an order of new jets that will significantly expand the... View Details

Keywords: Capacity Planning; Business Startups; Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Air Transportation Industry

February 2011
Exercise

Carbon Trading Simulation: Green Cement Inc.

By: Peter A. Coles

This simulation presents students the opportunity to experience firsthand the economics of carbon markets and permit trading. Each student has private role information about a company he or she manages. The student must make decisions about pollution-reducing... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Investment; Markets; Agreements and Arrangements; Production; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Government Relations; Environmental Sustainability; Pollutants

March 2010 (Revised May 2012)
Case

Myelin Repair Foundation: Accelerating Drug Discovery Through Collaboration

By: Karim R. Lakhani and Paul R. Carlile

This case presents the Myelin Repair Foundation's accelerated research collaboration model for drug discovery. It highlights the challenges of building a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional research collaboration that is attempting to create a treatment for... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Intellectual Property; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategic Planning; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Health Disorders; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; Health Industry

June 2019
Article

Fraud Allegations and Government Contracting

By: Jonas Heese and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos

This paper examines whether fraud allegations affect firms’ contracting with the government. Using a dataset of whistleblower allegations brought under the False Claims Act against firms accused of defrauding the government, we find that federal agencies do not reduce... View Details

Keywords: Whistleblower; Fraud Allegations; False Claims Act; Government Contracting; Risk Allocation; Government and Politics; Contracts; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations

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October 2002 (Revised December 2003)
Case

Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Brian DeLacey

The CEO of a two-year-old start-up must now decide whether to become a technology provider or a service agency. In a time of enormous uncertainty about the viability of various business models for Internet-delivered services and products, Collabrys has survived the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Internet and the Web; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits; Partners and Partnerships; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Corporate Finance; United States

Article

Organizational Beliefs and Managerial Vision

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

Can managers have an impact on their firm that goes beyond their direct actions and decisions? This article shows that a manager with strong beliefs about the right course of action will attract, through sorting in the labor market, employees with similar beliefs. This... View Details

Keywords: Organizations; Goals and Objectives; Decisions; Labor; Markets; Employees; Motivation and Incentives; Recruitment; Risk and Uncertainty; Values and Beliefs

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February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
Case

Science Technology Co.--1985

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry

Research Summary

Come Together: Firm Boundaries and Delegation

By: Laura Alfaro

We develop an incomplete-contracts model to jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them. Integration has an option value: it gives firm owners authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve... View Details

December 1988
Article

Ordinal Independence in Non-Linear Utility Theory

By: Jerry R. Green and Bruno Jullien

Individual behavior under uncertainty is characterized using a new axiom, ordinal independence, which is a weakened form of the von Neumann-Morgcnslern independence axiom. It states that if two distributions share a tail in common, then this tail can be modified... View Details

Keywords: Preferences

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October 6, 2020
Article

COVID-19 Is Rewriting the Rules of Corporate Governance

By: Lynn S. Paine

Boards are facing a complex new reality as a result of COVID-19. The new environment is characterized by pressures and demands from various stakeholder groups, heightened expectations for societal engagement and corporate citizenship, and radical uncertainty about the... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards

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