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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,117)
- People (1)
- News (169)
- Research (614)
- Events (17)
- Multimedia (5)
- Faculty Publications (371)
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- 2023
- Article
MoPe: Model Perturbation-based Privacy Attacks on Language Models
By: Marvin Li, Jason Wang, Jeffrey Wang and Seth Neel
Recent work has shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) can unintentionally leak sensitive information present in their training data. In this paper, we present Model Perturbations (MoPe), a new method to identify with high confidence if a given text is in the training... View Details
Li, Marvin, Jason Wang, Jeffrey Wang, and Seth Neel. "MoPe: Model Perturbation-based Privacy Attacks on Language Models." Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (2023): 13647–13660.
- 2013
- Book
Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters
The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
Friedman, Walter A. Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters. Princeton University Press, 2013.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Efficient Discovery of Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments via Anomalous Pattern Detection
By: Edward McFowland III, Sriram Somanchi and Daniel B. Neill
In the recent literature on estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, each proposed method makes its own set of restrictive assumptions about the intervention’s effects and which subpopulations to explicitly estimate. Moreover, the majority of the literature provides... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Program Evaluation; Algorithms; Distributional Average Treatment Effect; Treatment Effect Subset Scan; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
McFowland III, Edward, Sriram Somanchi, and Daniel B. Neill. "Efficient Discovery of Heterogeneous Quantile Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments via Anomalous Pattern Detection." Working Paper, 2023.
- 2010
- Chapter
From Visible Harm to Relative Risk: Centralization and Fragmentation of Pharmacovigilance
By: Arthur A. Daemmrich
Adverse drug reactions pose distinct but potentially catastrophic risks to patients, physicians, pharmaceutical firms, and regulators. Between the early 1960s and the present, national systems were built to collect, standardize, and respond to individual reports of... View Details
Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Testing and Trials; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States
Daemmrich, Arthur A. "From Visible Harm to Relative Risk: Centralization and Fragmentation of Pharmacovigilance." Chap. 13 in The Fragmentation of U.S. Health Care: Causes and Solutions, edited by Einer Elhauge, 301–322. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2010.
- 03 Oct 2023
- What Do You Think?
Do Leaders Learn More From Success or Failure?
associated with outstanding long-term performance. We asked hundreds of senior executives to name their competitor (not their own organization) with the strongest culture. We then compared those results with long-term (10-year) performance. The View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available... View Details
Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
Liang, Biyonka, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-057, March 2024.
- June 2020
- Article
Real-time Data from Mobile Platforms to Evaluate Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure
By: Omar Isaac Asensio, Kevin Alvarez, Arielle Dror, Emerson Wenzel, Catharina Hollauer and Sooji Ha
By displacing gasoline and diesel fuels, electric cars and fleets reduce emissions from the transportation sector, thus offering important public health benefits. However, public confidence in the reliability of charging infrastructure remains a fundamental barrier to... View Details
Keywords: Environmental Sustainability; Transportation; Infrastructure; Behavior; AI and Machine Learning; Demand and Consumers
Asensio, Omar Isaac, Kevin Alvarez, Arielle Dror, Emerson Wenzel, Catharina Hollauer, and Sooji Ha. "Real-time Data from Mobile Platforms to Evaluate Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure." Nature Sustainability 3, no. 6 (June 2020): 463–471.
- October 1, 2021
- Article
An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance.
By: B.M. Balk, M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps and J.L. Zofio
Cross-efficiency measurement is an extension of Data Envelopment Analysis that allows for tie-breaking ranking of the Decision Making Units (DMUs) using all the peer evaluations. In this article we examine the theory of cross-efficiency measurement by comparing a... View Details
Keywords: Efficiency Analysis; Performance Benchmarking; Warehousing; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; Measurement and Metrics; Mathematical Methods
Balk, B.M., M.R. De Koster, Christian Kaps, and J.L. Zofio. "An Evaluation of Cross-efficiency Methods: With an Application to Warehouse Performance." Art. 126261. Applied Mathematics and Computation 406 (October 1, 2021).
- September 16, 2022
- Article
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest... View Details
Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
- September 1990
- Article
Competition on Many Fronts: A Stackelberg Signaling Equilibrium
By: Jerry R. Green and Jean-Jacques Laffont
An economic agent, the incumbent, is operating in many environments at the same time. These may be locations, markets, or specific activities. He is informed of the particular conditions relevant to each situation. His action in each case is observable by another... View Details
Green, Jerry R., and Jean-Jacques Laffont. "Competition on Many Fronts: A Stackelberg Signaling Equilibrium." Games and Economic Behavior 2, no. 3 (September 1990): 247–272.
- August 2021
- Article
Crowdsourcing Memories: Mixed Methods Research by Cultural Insiders-Epistemological Outsiders
By: Tarun Khanna, Karim R. Lakhani, Shubhangi Bhadada, Nabil Khan, Saba Kohli Davé, Rasim Alam and Meena Hewett
This paper examines the role that the two lead authors’ personal connections played in the research methodology and data collection for the Partition Stories Project—a mixed-methods approach to revisiting the much-studied historical trauma of the Partition of British... View Details
Keywords: Mixed Methods; Insider-outsiders; Myth Of Informed Objectivity; Hybrid Research; Oral Narratives; Research; Analysis; India
Khanna, Tarun, Karim R. Lakhani, Shubhangi Bhadada, Nabil Khan, Saba Kohli Davé, Rasim Alam, and Meena Hewett. "Crowdsourcing Memories: Mixed Methods Research by Cultural Insiders-Epistemological Outsiders." Academy of Management Perspectives 35, no. 3 (August 2021): 384–399.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Salience through Information Technology: The Effect of Balance Availability on the Smoothing of SNAP Benefits
By: Andrew Hillis
Recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) run out of most benefits before halfway through a benefit deposit cycle. I study the introduction of a mobile software application, Fresh EBT, that enables beneficiaries to check their available balance... View Details
Hillis, Andrew. "Salience through Information Technology: The Effect of Balance Availability on the Smoothing of SNAP Benefits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-038, October 2017.
- 2014
- Teaching Note
Fine Harvest Restaurant Group
By: Clara X. Chen, Kenneth A. Merchant, Tatiana Sandino and Wim Van der Stede
The Fine Harvest Restaurant Group cases A and B examine a company's design of a new system to evaluate the performance (and determine the bonuses) for its restaurant managers. Fine Harvest had traditionally evaluated restaurant managers based on store margins and had... View Details
- September 2013
- Article
Testimonials Do Not Convert Patients from Brand to Generic Medication
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Gwendolyn Reynolds
Objectives: To assess whether the addition of a peer testimonial to an informational mailing increases conversion rates from brand name prescription medications to lower-cost therapeutic equivalents, and whether the testimonial's efficacy increases when... View Details
Keywords: Testimonial; Peer Information; Social Proximity; Communication; Generic Medication; Familiarity; Marketing Communications; Decision Choices and Conditions; Identity; Health Care and Treatment; Marketing Reference Programs; Power and Influence; Brands and Branding; Health Industry
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Gwendolyn Reynolds. "Testimonials Do Not Convert Patients from Brand to Generic Medication." American Journal of Managed Care 19, no. 9 (September 2013): e314–e316.
- 13 Jan 2003
- Research & Ideas
The Subconscious Mind of the Consumer (And How To Reach It)
of such interviews can be used to design more comprehensive surveys. And properly designed surveys, when subjected to careful statistical analyses, can yield further insights into unconscious consumer thinking. Q: At what point in the... View Details
Keywords: by Manda Mahoney
- October 2007
- Article
The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market
By: Anita Elberse and Bharat N. Anand
One of the most visible and publicized trends in the movie industry is the escalation in movie advertising expenditures over time. Yet, the returns to movie advertising are poorly understood. The main reason is that disentangling the causal effect of advertising on... View Details
Keywords: Advertising; Stocks; Investment Return; Price; Revenue; Quality; Mathematical Methods; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Elberse, Anita, and Bharat N. Anand. "The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market." Information Economics and Policy 19, nos. 3-4 (October 2007): 319–343. (Special Issue on Economics of the Media.)
- Research Summary
Do Appearances Matter? The Impact of EPS Accretion and Dilution on Stock Prices
There is a widespread concern among practitioners and corporate managers that transactions which result in changes in future earnings-per-share (EPS) have real effects on stock prices, irrespective of whether these changes reflect differences in future cash flows. As... View Details
- 2013
- Working Paper
Learning from Double-Digit Growth Experiences
By: Eric D. Werker
This extended memorandum identifies episodes of sustained double-digit growth in real GDP, defined as a compound annual growth rate of 10 percent or more over a period of 8 years or longer. Using a measure of real GDP reported in the World Development Indicators, we... View Details
Werker, Eric D. "Learning from Double-Digit Growth Experiences." International Growth Centre Working Paper, April 2013.