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- All HBS Web (1,029)
- Faculty Publications (349)
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- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- 2025
- Working Paper
Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends
By: De-Rong Kong and Daniel Rabetti
We leverage the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) setting to assess the valuation of emotional dividends (LOVE), a long-standing empirical challenge in private-value markets such as art, antiques, and collectibles. Having created and validated our proxy, we use deep learning... View Details
Kong, De-Rong, and Daniel Rabetti. "Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends." Working Paper, February 2025.
- 29 Jan 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
An Exploration of the Japanese Slowdown during the 1990s
Keywords: by Diego A. Comin
- 2007
- Other Unpublished Work
Mind Over Matter? Similarities and Differences Between Perceived and Observed Networks
In spite of the rapid development of new methods for network analysis—relying on electronic data sources and sophisticated computational analysis—organizational scholars continue to rely largely on more traditional survey-based methods. We believe that the... View Details
- October 2021
- Article
Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach
By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details
Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis
Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 58, no. 5 (October 2021): 981–1006.
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- April 1993 (Revised June 1994)
- Supplement
MathSoft, Inc. (B)
Describes the president's decision regarding MathSoft's marketing channels and communications methods, and the company's sales results during the next five quarters. The (A) case market response model is also updated. View Details
Keywords: Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Curriculum and Courses; Learning; Knowledge Sharing; Growth and Development Strategy; Marketing Channels; Education Industry
Rangan, V. Kasturi. "MathSoft, Inc. (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 593-095, April 1993. (Revised June 1994.)
- 09 Mar 2009
- Research & Ideas
How to Revive Health-Care Innovation
fundamental question: How do we make health care affordable? Most disruptions have three enablers: a simplifying technology, a business model innovation, and a disruptive value network. The technological enabler transforms a technological... View Details
- Research Summary
Selection, Reallocation, and Spillover: Identifying the Sources of Gains from Multinational Production (with Maggie Chen)
By: Laura Alfaro
Quantifying the gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research. Positive productivity gains are often attributed to knowledge spillover from multinational to domestic firms. An alternative, less stressed explanation is firm selection... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
Gender Differences in Altruism: Responses to a Natural Disaster
By: Matthew Lilley and Robert Slonim
High-profile disasters can cause large spikes in philanthropy and volunteerism. By providing temporary positive shocks to the altruism of donors, these natural experiments help identify heterogeneity in the distributions of the latent altruism which motivates donors.... View Details
Lilley, Matthew, and Robert Slonim. "Gender Differences in Altruism: Responses to a Natural Disaster." IZA (Institute of Labor Economics) Discussion Paper Series, No. 9657, January 2016.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science
By: Fabio Bertolotti, Kyle R. Myers and Wei Yang Tham
We develop a method to estimate producers’ productivity beliefs in settings where output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate allocative efficiency in the market for science. Our model of researchers’ labor supply shows that their... View Details
Bertolotti, Fabio, Kyle R. Myers, and Wei Yang Tham. "Productivity Beliefs and Efficiency in Science." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-063, June 2025.
- 2015
- Working Paper
Blinded by Experience: Prior Experience, Negative News and Belief Updating
By: Bradley R. Staats, Diwas S. KC and Francesca Gino
Traditional models of operations management involve dynamic decision-making assuming optimal (Bayesian) updating. However, behavioral theory suggests that individuals exhibit bias in their beliefs and decisions. We conduct both a field study and two laboratory studies... View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Operations; Egocentric Bias; Experience; Healthcare Operations; Prejudice and Bias; Behavior; Operations; Decision Making; Health Care and Treatment
Staats, Bradley R., Diwas S. KC, and Francesca Gino. "Blinded by Experience: Prior Experience, Negative News and Belief Updating." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-015, August 2015.
- February 2018
- Case
EmQuest: Travel Distribution in the Digital Era
By: Karim R. Lakhani and Gamze Yucaoglu
EmQuest, Emirates Group’s travel distribution company, must decide what to do with its contract with the global distribution system it uses, Sabre. Since its founding in 1988, EmQuest was servicing travel agents in the MENA region by providing a connection to over 400... View Details
Keywords: UAE; Decision; Business Model; Competitive Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Business Strategy; Value Creation; Change Management; Emerging Markets; For-Profit Firms; Competitive Advantage; Travel Industry; United Arab Emirates
Lakhani, Karim R., and Gamze Yucaoglu. "EmQuest: Travel Distribution in the Digital Era." Harvard Business School Case 618-040, February 2018.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Feature Importance Disparities for Data Bias Investigations
By: Peter W. Chang, Leor Fishman and Seth Neel
It is widely held that one cause of downstream bias in classifiers is bias present in the training data. Rectifying such biases may involve context-dependent interventions such as training separate models on subgroups, removing features with bias in the collection... View Details
Chang, Peter W., Leor Fishman, and Seth Neel. "Feature Importance Disparities for Data Bias Investigations." Working Paper, March 2023.
- Research Summary
Professor Gilbert's research focuses on the areas of corporate entrepreneurship, discontinuous change, cognitive framing, and strategic resource allocation. Below is an description of his most recent research paper: 'Unbundling the Structure of Interia: Resource vs.... View Details
- 2012
- Working Paper
Rainmakers: Why Bad Weather Means Good Productivity
By: Jooa Julia Lee, Francesca Gino and Bradley R. Staats
People believe that weather conditions influence their everyday work life, but to date, little is known about how weather affects individual productivity. Most people believe that bad weather conditions reduce productivity. In this research, we predict and find just... View Details
Keywords: Productivity; Opportunity Cost; Distractions; Weather; Performance Productivity; Social Psychology; Mathematical Methods
Lee, Jooa Julia, Francesca Gino, and Bradley R. Staats. "Rainmakers: Why Bad Weather Means Good Productivity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-005, July 2012.
- Research Summary
Overview
Professor Ferreira's research primarily focuses on how retailers can use algorithms to make better revenue management decisions, including pricing, product display, and assortment planning. In the retail industry, anticipating consumer demand is arguably one of the... View Details
- July–August 2017
- Article
Why Outlet Stores Exist: Averting Cannibalization in Product Line Extensions
By: Donald Ngwe
Outlet stores are a large and growing component of many firms' retailing strategies, particularly in the fashion industry. Outlet stores offer attractive prices in locations far from central shopping districts. The main perspectives on why outlet stores exist can be... View Details
Keywords: Fashion; Industrial Organization; Outlet Stores; Price Discrimination; Retail; Channel Management; Luxury; Product Marketing; Price; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry
Ngwe, Donald. "Why Outlet Stores Exist: Averting Cannibalization in Product Line Extensions." Marketing Science 36, no. 4 (July–August 2017): 523–541.
- 2009
- Other Paper
Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries
By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Andrew F. Newman and Harald Fadinger
We examine how trade policy affects firms' organizational choices. We embed a model of firms' vertical integration decisions into a standard perfectly-competitive international trade framework. In the model, integration decisions are driven by a trade-off... View Details
Keywords: Trade; Policy; Ownership; Business and Government Relations; Vertical Integration; Boundaries
Alfaro, Laura, Paola Conconi, Andrew F. Newman, and Harald Fadinger. "Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries."
- June 2008
- Journal Article
Strategic Alliances: Bridges Between 'Islands of Conscious Power'
By: George P. Baker, Robert Gibbons and Kevin J. Murphy
Strategic alliances range from unstructured collaborations, through consortia and joint ventures that superimpose new governance structures on existing firms, to transactions that restructure firm boundaries and asset ownership. In this paper, we draw on detailed... View Details
Baker, George P., Robert Gibbons, and Kevin J. Murphy. "Strategic Alliances: Bridges Between 'Islands of Conscious Power'." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 22, no. 2 (June 2008): 146–163.