Predictive Models - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2020
Working Paper

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Eva Ascarza

The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details

Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

LendingClub (B): Decision Trees & Random Forests

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on the LendingClub (A) case. In this case students follow Emily Figel as she builds two tree-based models using historical LendingClub data to predict, with some probability, whether borrower will repay or default on his loan.
... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Data Analytics; Decision Trees; Investment; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

27 Jan 2015
Working Paper Summaries

College Admissions as Non-Price Competition: The Case of South Korea

Keywords: by Christopher Avery, Alvin E. Roth & Soohyung Lee; Education

December 2011
Article

CEO and Board Chair Roles: To Split or Not to Split?

By: Aiyesha Dey, Ellen Engel and Xiaohui Liu

We examine the performance and compensation implications of firms' decisions to combine the roles of CEO and board chairman (duality). We document that firms that split the CEO and chairman positions due to investor pressure have significantly lower announcement... View Details

Keywords: CEO Duality; Board Chairman; Firm Performance; Pay-performance Sensitivity; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Leadership; Performance Efficiency

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2018
Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details

Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption

February 2018
Article

Retention Futility: Targeting High-Risk Customers Might Be Ineffective.

By: Eva Ascarza

Companies in a variety of sectors are increasingly managing customer churn proactively, generally by detecting customers at the highest risk of churning and targeting retention efforts towards them. While there is a vast literature on developing churn prediction models... View Details

Keywords: Retention/churn; Proactive Churn Management; Field Experiments; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Risk Management

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2025
Working Paper

Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends

By: Valeria Fedyk, Daniel Rabetti and Stella Kong

We leverage the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) setting to assess the valuation of emotional dividends (LOVE), a long-standing empirical challenge in private-value markets such as art, antiques, and collectibles. Having created and validated our proxy, we use deep learning... View Details

Keywords: NFTs; Non-fungible Tokens; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Financial Markets

Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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November 2009
Journal Article

A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level

By: Diego A. Comin and Sunil Mulani

This paper presents an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Microeconomics; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development

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October 2021
Article

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza

The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details

Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis

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July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
Background Note

A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis

Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation

April 2023
Article

On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse

By: Martin Pawelczyk, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Seth Neel

As predictive models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions, there is a growing emphasis on developing techniques that can provide algorithmic recourse to affected individuals. While such recourses can be immensely beneficial to affected... View Details

Keywords: Recourse; Privacy Threats; AI and Machine Learning; Information

Other Article

Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities

By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant and Lee Doolan

Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings. We... View Details

Keywords: Security Vulnerabilities; Software Architecture; Metrics; Software; Complexity; Measurement and Metrics

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15 Jul 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger & Andrew F. Newman

2021
Working Paper

Hunting for Talent: Firm-Driven Labor Market Search in the United States

By: Ines Black, Sharique Hasan and Rembrand Koning

This article analyzes the phenomenon of firm-driven labor market search—or outbound recruiting—where recruiters are increasingly “hunting for talent” rather than passively relying on workers to search for and apply to job vacancies. Our research methodology leverages... View Details

Keywords: Hiring; Referrals; Outbound Recruiting; Labor Markets; Selection and Staffing; Networks; Recruitment; Strategy; United States

2011
Article

Incentive Compensation and the Likelihood of Termination: Theory and Evidence from Real Estate Organizations

By: Christopher Parsons, G. Hallman and J. Hartzell

We analyze two managerial compensation incentive devices: the threat of termination and pay for performance. We first develop a simple model predicting that these devices are substitutes: when termination incentives are low, optimal contracts provide stronger... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Resignation and Termination; Compensation and Benefits; Real Estate Industry

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12 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 12, 2006

Working PapersDo Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance? Authors:Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel Abstract Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2022
Working Paper

The Disagreement Problem in Explainable Machine Learning: A Practitioner's Perspective

By: Satyapriya Krishna, Tessa Han, Alex Gu, Javin Pombra, Shahin Jabbari, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As various post hoc explanation methods are increasingly being leveraged to explain complex models in high-stakes settings, it becomes critical to develop a deeper understanding of if and when the explanations output by these methods disagree with each other, and how... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

Research Summary

Financial reporting quality and its consequences

Does reporting quality have real economic consequences? Professor Yu addresses this question in her research, which examines the channels through which reporting quality affects the behavior of economic agents, namely managers and investors. Her particular focus is... View Details

February 2018
Case

EmQuest: Travel Distribution in the Digital Era

By: Karim R. Lakhani and Gamze Yucaoglu

EmQuest, Emirates Group’s travel distribution company, must decide what to do with its contract with the global distribution system it uses, Sabre. Since its founding in 1988, EmQuest was servicing travel agents in the MENA region by providing a connection to over 400... View Details

Keywords: UAE; Decision; Business Model; Competitive Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Business Strategy; Value Creation; Change Management; Emerging Markets; For-Profit Firms; Competitive Advantage; Travel Industry; United Arab Emirates

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