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  • All HBS Web  (3,298)
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    • Research  (2,505)
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    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,611)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (3,298)
    • News  (517)
    • Research  (2,505)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,611)
← Page 15 of 3,298 Results →
  • 21 Oct 2015
  • Research & Ideas

How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good

innovation and entrepreneurship. When dealing with something truly innovative, it’s difficult to compare it to anything that came before. That uncertainty makes the line between a tremendous success and a... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Accommodations; Financial Services
  • fall 2004
  • Article

Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Keywords: Negotiation; Books
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Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
  • Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
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Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
  • 22 Apr 2020
  • Video

Daniel Schrag on the Science of Forecasting Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

  • June 2015
  • Case

The Valuation and Financing of Lady M Confections

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This case explores the decision-making process that small, private businesses must undertake when considering an expansion and when selling equity to outside investors. In the process, students are asked to complete two exercises: a break-even analysis and a valuation... View Details
Keywords: Lady M; Bakery; Foodservice Industry; Breakeven Analysis; Restaurant Industry; Forecasting; Forecast; Financial Analysis; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Equity; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Finance; Food; Valuation; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)
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Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "The Valuation and Financing of Lady M Confections." Harvard Business School Case 215-047, June 2015.
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov
Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science
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Yue, Daniel, Paul Hamilton, and Iavor Bojinov. "Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-029, December 2022. (Revised April 2023.)
  • Summer 2021
  • Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
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Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
  • March 2013
  • Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R&D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention
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Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
  • March 2003
  • Article

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming

By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Citation
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Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
  • Article

Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio

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Czado, Claudia, and Carolin Elisabeth Pflueger. "Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio." Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 24, no. 3 (May–June 2008).
  • 28 Sep 2021
  • News

Dropbox Billionaire Predicts 40-Hour Workweek Will Become a ‘Thing of the Past’

    Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

    Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of... View Details
    • 2006
    • Working Paper

    Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

    By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
    Citation
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    Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-004, July 2006.
    • 02 Feb 2025
    • News

    Why the 2024 US Election, and So Many Others, Were So Hard to Predict

    • June 2023
    • Case

    Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

    By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber
    The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly... View Details
    Keywords: Accounting Standards; Accrual Accounting; Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry; United States
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    Heese, Jonas, Jung Koo Kang, and James Weber. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Case 123-042, June 2023.
    • April 2024
    • Article

    A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

    By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson
    Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details
    Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry
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    Wang, Hsin-Hsiao Scott, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow, and Caleb Nelson. "A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification." Journal of Pediatric Urology 20, no. 2 (April 2024): 271–278.
    • 04 Mar 2020

    Daniel Schrag on the Science of Forecasting Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

    • 31 May 2023
    • Research & Ideas

    With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

    If knowing what customers need is marketing gold, pinpointing exactly when they need it may just be platinum. Services that become part of a customer’s routine may deliver advantages beyond repeat business for a company, Harvard Business School Associate Professor Eva... View Details
    Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation
    • December 2023
    • Supplement

    Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

    By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang
    Citation
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    Heese, Jonas, and Jung Koo Kang. "Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 124-708, December 2023.
    • March 2020
    • Supplement

    People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

    By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
    This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, situated one year after the A case, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to apply his team's predictive models generated from the previous year’s data. View Details
    Keywords: Analytics; Human Resource Management; Data; Workforce; Hiring; Talent Management; Forecasting; Predictive Analytics; Organizational Behavior; Recruiting; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management
    Citation
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    Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 420-086, March 2020.
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