Publications

2007
Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman

A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career

January 2008
Background Note

Equity Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value

Article

Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates

By: J. Peter Scoblic

Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details

Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History

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July 2007 (Revised November 2007)
Case

Leasing Computers at Persistent Learning

Newly public Persistent Learning is acquiring vital computer assets. They need to determine how the lease or purchase decision will impact their financial statements, and how the market will react given previously forecast earnings and competitor's accounting. View Details

Keywords: Information Infrastructure; Financial Statements; Leasing

I’ve worked at startup companies and I’ve run development teams inside large public companies. In both environments, executives spend far more time forecasting how successful they’ll be than planning what they will do if something breaks down.

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2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

Research Summary

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting.

Forecasting firm-level sales is a key activity in top-down planning in most organizations. In the retailing industry, firms can use inventory and price to stimulate demand. Hence, standard time series methods for sales forecasting can be improved by incorporating... View Details

09 Jun 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott

18 Oct 2019
News

Companies’ Non-GAAP Adjustments to Net Income Have Soared

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Fortune Tellers

The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who... View Details

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

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2023
Working Paper

Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio

In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details

Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry

SSRN

October 1994 (Revised January 1997)
Case

Nestle Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pasta and Pizza (A)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Marie Bell

Nestle Co.'s Refrigerated Foods Division has very successfully launched its Contadina brand pasta and sauces. The new product has achieved nearly $100 million in sales in three years. The division now considers an extension into the pizza line. This case provides a... View Details

Keywords: Business Divisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Launch; Sales; Commercialization; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

April 2002 (Revised July 2002)
Case

Imagicast

By: John T. Gourville and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld

Imagicast has brought to market an interactive, multimedia retail kiosk designed to increase product sales. In spite of promising projections by industry analysts and detailed demand forecasts by Imagicast management, the company has yet to sell a single kiosk. Time... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Sales; Technology; Retail Industry; United States

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February 2000 (Revised June 2002)
Case

Development of the Internet in China (A), The: Challenges and Opportunities

Explores the development of the Internet in China. Starts with background information on China, the Internet, and several common Internet business models. Discusses regulatory and business obstacles to the growth of e-commerce in China. Finally, presents forecasts and... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry; China

January 2017
Article

Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns

By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes

We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Investment

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May 2018 (Revised October 2019)
Case

Managing the Future of Work

By: William R. Kerr, Allison Ciechanover and Jeff Huizinga

By 2019, leaders from the public and private sector had become increasingly anxious about how advanced technologies and aging global populations could affect labor markets, workplaces, and workers’ lives. Some analysts forecasted that hundreds of millions of workers... View Details

Keywords: Labor Markets; Workplace; Employment; Technological Innovation; Demographics; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Change Management; Problems and Challenges; Opportunities