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      Exchange Rate RiskRemove Exchange Rate Risk →

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      • July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
      • Background Note

      A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

      By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis
      Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation
      Citation
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      Sahlman, William A., and Daniel R Scherlis. A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method". Harvard Business School Background Note 288-006, July 1987. (Revised October 2009.)
      • March 1987
      • Article

      Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
      • January 1987 (Revised November 1991)
      • Case

      R.J. Reynolds International Financing

      By: W. Carl Kester and William B. Allen
      Reynolds must source a substantial portion of the financing of its Nabisco acquisition in offshore bond markets. Morgan Guaranty has proposed a yen/dollar dual currency Eurobond that could be hedged into dollars. This structure is compared to Eurodollar Bonds, Euroyen... View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Capital Markets; Currency Exchange Rate; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Financing and Loans
      Citation
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      Kester, W. Carl, and William B. Allen. "R.J. Reynolds International Financing." Harvard Business School Case 287-057, January 1987. (Revised November 1991.)
      • 1987
      • Working Paper

      Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

      By: K. A. Froot
      Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility
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      Froot, K. A. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2362, August 1987.
      • December 1986 (Revised March 1991)
      • Supplement

      Caterpillar-Komatsu in 1986

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett
      Provides an update to the global competitive interaction between Caterpillar and Komatsu described in companion cases Caterpillar Tractor and Komatsu Ltd. Caterpillar's response to Komatsu's growing market share is outlined, then the impact of rapidly changing... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Global Strategy; Policy; Market Participation; Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Industrial Products Industry
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      Bartlett, Christopher A. "Caterpillar-Komatsu in 1986." Harvard Business School Supplement 387-095, December 1986. (Revised March 1991.)
      • December 1986
      • Article

      Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
      • July 1986 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Nippon-WTI Ltd.

      By: W. Carl Kester and Glynn Ferguson
      A Japanese joint venture between a U.S. parent and a Japanese parent has proposed that 100% of the U.S. parent's product be produced in Japan rather than the 40% currently being manufactured there. This would require the U.S. parent to give up a dollar profit earned on... View Details
      Keywords: Joint Ventures; Currency Exchange Rate; Profit; Product; Production; Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Asia; Japan; United States
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Glynn Ferguson. "Nippon-WTI Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 287-006, July 1986. (Revised July 1991.)
      • 1986
      • Article

      The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists." Marcus Wallenberg Papers on International Finance 1 (1986): 27–55. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1854, March 1986.)
      • August 1985 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Universal Circuits, Inc.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The manager of international finance of a major U.S. electronics company is concerned about the exposure of the firm to changes in exchange rates. Of particular concern is the exposure of operations to changes in real exchange rates. The teaching objectives include: 1)... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Business Plan; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Electronics Industry; United States
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Universal Circuits, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 286-006, August 1985. (Revised July 1991.)
      • February 1985 (Revised September 1988)
      • Case

      Komatsu Ltd.

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett
      Reviews and updates the structure and characteristics of the earth-moving equipment industry presented in the companion case, Caterpillar Tractor Co. After revealing that CAT has suffered major financial losses during the period from 1981 through 1984, the case... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Machinery and Machining; Price; Growth and Development; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Competitive Strategy; Global Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Industrial Products Industry
      Citation
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      Bartlett, Christopher A. "Komatsu Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 385-277, February 1985. (Revised September 1988.)
      • September 1984
      • Article

      The Evolution of Market Risk in the U.S. Steel Industry and Implications for Required Rates of Return

      By: Carliss Y. Baldwin, J. J. Tribendis and J. P. Clark
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Investment Return; Steel Industry
      Citation
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      Baldwin, Carliss Y., J. J. Tribendis, and J. P. Clark. "The Evolution of Market Risk in the U.S. Steel Industry and Implications for Required Rates of Return." Journal of Industrial Economics 32, no. 5 (September 1984).
      • February 1984 (Revised March 1990)
      • Background Note

      Risk Adjusted Discount Rates

      By: David E. Bell
      Keywords: Asset Pricing; Risk and Uncertainty
      Citation
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      Bell, David E. "Risk Adjusted Discount Rates." Harvard Business School Background Note 184-151, February 1984. (Revised March 1990.)
      • July 1983 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Hintz-Kessels-Kohl A.G.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      A truck manufacturer must decide whether to bid on the sale of 120 trucks to a private firm in Costa Rica. If a bid is submitted, a decision must be made on whether to protect against the credit, exchange rate, and sovereign risks. View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Truck Transportation; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Manufacturing Industry; Auto Industry; Germany; Costa Rica
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Hintz-Kessels-Kohl A.G." Harvard Business School Case 284-019, July 1983. (Revised July 1991.)
      • January 1982
      • Background Note

      Exchange Rate Determination and Foreign Exchange Equilibrium Conditions, Study Note

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; International Finance
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Exchange Rate Determination and Foreign Exchange Equilibrium Conditions, Study Note." Harvard Business School Background Note 282-052, January 1982.
      • December 1980 (Revised January 1994)
      • Case

      International Foodstuffs

      By: David E. Bell
      Describes three fairly routine instances in which considerations of risk exposure in foreign exchange are necessary. The three are a delayed payment for a grain shipment, a foreign subsidiary facing devaluation of its domestic currency, and a foreign acquisition. The... View Details
      Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; Risk and Uncertainty; International Relations; Mergers and Acquisitions; Money; International Finance; Financial Services Industry
      Citation
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      Bell, David E. "International Foodstuffs." Harvard Business School Case 181-049, December 1980. (Revised January 1994.)
      • 1977
      • Working Paper

      Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

      By: Jerry R. Green
      A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details
      Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R. "Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 215, November 1977.
      • April 1975 (Revised November 1984)
      • Case

      Enzone Petroleum Corp.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      A large integrated oil company is debating whether to switch from a single hurdle rate to multiple hurdle rates for project analysis purposes. Raises questions on: 1) determination of the cost of equity; 2) the usefulness of multiple hurdle rates to adjust for project... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost; Investment Return; Equity; Capital Budgeting; Energy Industry
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Enzone Petroleum Corp." Harvard Business School Case 275-113, April 1975. (Revised November 1984.)
      • May 1974
      • Article

      On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Robert C. Merton
      Keywords: Price; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates
      Citation
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      Merton, Robert C. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Finance 29, no. 2 (May 1974): 449–470. (Chapter 12 in Continuous-Time Finance.)
      • Research Summary

      Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets

      By: Laura Alfaro
      The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Decision Making Under Uncertainty

      By: David E. Bell

      Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

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