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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,628)
      • Faculty Publications  (393)

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      • November – December 2007
      • Article

      Fundamentally Flawed Indexing

      By: Andre F. Perold
      A new theory of finance is being advanced as providing definitive proof that holding stocks in proportion to their market capitalizations is an inferior investment strategy. The claim is that capitalization weighting necessarily invests more in overvalued stocks and... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Capital Markets; Financial Strategy; Stocks; Financial Management; Valuation
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      Perold, Andre F. "Fundamentally Flawed Indexing." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 6 (November–December 2007). (Winner of Graham and Dodd Best Perspectives Award For excellence in financial writing​.)
      • October 2007 (Revised November 2007)
      • Case

      Barclays Global Investors and Exchange Traded Funds

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld
      Provides an overview of the Exchange Traded Funds (EFT) industry and highlights the leadership role that Barclays Global Investors (BGI) has played in this developing asset class. BGI launched its first ETFs under the iShares brand name in 2000, and by mid-2007 BGI was... View Details
      Keywords: History; Venture Capital; Asset Management; Stocks; Investment Funds; Leading Change; Expansion; Competitive Strategy; Capital Markets; Global Strategy; Financial Strategy; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Asia; Europe
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld. "Barclays Global Investors and Exchange Traded Funds." Harvard Business School Case 208-033, October 2007. (Revised November 2007.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether and Christopher J. Malloy
      Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Stocks; Financing and Loans; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Markets; Information
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market." Journal of Finance 62, no. 5 (October 2007): 2061–2096. (Winner of Smith Breeden Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Finance in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2007.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market

      By: Anita Elberse and Bharat N. Anand
      One of the most visible and publicized trends in the movie industry is the escalation in movie advertising expenditures over time. Yet, the returns to movie advertising are poorly understood. The main reason is that disentangling the causal effect of advertising on... View Details
      Keywords: Advertising; Stocks; Investment Return; Price; Revenue; Quality; Mathematical Methods; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and Bharat N. Anand. "The Effectiveness of Pre-Release Advertising for Motion Pictures: An Empirical Investigation Using a Simulated Market." Information Economics and Policy 19, nos. 3-4 (October 2007): 319–343. (Special Issue on Economics of the Media.)
      • October 2007
      • Article

      The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?

      By: Anita Elberse
      Is the involvement of star actors critical to the success of motion pictures? Film studios, which they regularly pay multimillion-dollar fees to star actors, seem driven by that belief. I shed light on the returns on this investment using an event study that considers... View Details
      Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Film Entertainment; Investment Return; Revenue; Compensation and Benefits; Resource Allocation; Success; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Elberse, Anita. "The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?" Journal of Marketing 71, no. 4 (October 2007): 102–120. (Featured in HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • September 2007 (Revised June 2008)
      • Case

      Food Security and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

      By: Ray A. Goldberg and Eliot Sherman
      The Mormon Church focuses on self-reliance and being prepared for emergencies. Part of their program encourages each member of the Church to have a reserve food supply on hand at all times. Given U.S. and global food stock levels, is the Church program a good model for... View Details
      Keywords: Food; Globalized Markets and Industries; Crisis Management; Logistics; Programs; Religion; United States
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      Goldberg, Ray A., and Eliot Sherman. "Food Security and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints." Harvard Business School Case 508-002, September 2007. (Revised June 2008.)
      • September – October 2007
      • Article

      Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Nathan Sosner
      n April 2000, 30 stocks were replaced in the Nikkei 225 Index. The unusually broad index redefinition allowed for a study of the effects of index-linked trading on the excess comovement of stock returns. A large increase occurred in the correlation of trading volume of... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Nathan Sosner. "Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 5 (September–October 2007): 69–81.
      • August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
      • Case

      Trouble with a Bubble

      By: Tom Nicholas
      Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States
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      Nicholas, Tom. "Trouble with a Bubble." Harvard Business School Case 808-067, August 2007. (Revised June 2020.)
      • June 2007 (Revised January 2008)
      • Case

      The Vanguard Group, Inc. in 2006 and Target Retirement Funds

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      The Vanguard Group is one of the largest asset managers in the U.S., with over $1 trillion in assets, ninety percent of which are mutual fund assets, and more than 12,000 employees at year-end 2006. Vanguard has built a strong reputation as the manager of reference for... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Personal Finance; Brands and Branding; Retirement; Trust; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Viceira, Luis M. "The Vanguard Group, Inc. in 2006 and Target Retirement Funds." Harvard Business School Case 207-129, June 2007. (Revised January 2008.)
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. The "top down" approach to behavioral finance focuses on the measurement of reduced form, aggregate sentiment and traces its effects to stock returns.... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Markets; Behavioral Finance; Stocks
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13189, June 2007.
      • May 2007
      • Article

      Capital Flows and Capital Goods

      By: Laura Alfaro and Eliza Hammel
      Studying the relation between equity market liberalization and imports of capital goods, we examine one channel through which international financial integration can promote growth. For the period 1980–1997, we find that after controlling for other policies and... View Details
      Keywords: Cash Flow; Equity; Financial Markets; Economy; Distribution Channels; Machinery and Machining; Capital
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Eliza Hammel. "Capital Flows and Capital Goods." Journal of International Economics 72, no. 1 (May 2007): 128–150. (Link to working paper version.)
      • 2007
      • Chapter

      Stock Market Swings and the Value of Innovation, 1908–1929

      By: Tom Nicholas
      Keywords: Fluctuation; Financial Markets; Innovation and Invention
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      Nicholas, Tom. "Stock Market Swings and the Value of Innovation, 1908–1929." In Financing Innovation in the United States, 1870 to Present, edited by Naomi R. Lamoreaux and Kenneth L. Sokoloff. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007.
      • March 2007 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      The Nikkei 225 Reconstitution

      By: Robin Greenwood
      Taka Haneda, a proprietary trader at the Tokyo office of Goldman Sachs, has just learned that the Nikkei 225 will undergo a significant redefinition over the coming week. He faces several billion dollars of customer orders, as well as the opportunity to commit the... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Financial Services Industry; Tokyo
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      Greenwood, Robin. "The Nikkei 225 Reconstitution." Harvard Business School Case 207-109, March 2007. (Revised March 2008.)
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market." Journal of Economic Perspectives 21, no. 2 (Spring 2007): 129–151.
      • September 2006
      • Exercise

      Earnings Management Exercise

      By: Malcolm P. Baker
      Students act as managers or investors. Managers have the ability to manipulate reported earnings, and investors must bid for shares taking this into account. View Details
      Keywords: Earnings Management; Value; Stock Shares; Opportunities; Bids and Bidding; Reports
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      Baker, Malcolm P. "Earnings Management Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 207-034, September 2006.
      • August 2006 (Revised August 2007)
      • Case

      Revenue Recognition Problems in the Communications Equipment Industry

      By: Paul M. Healy and Arjuna J Costa
      Designed to explore recognition issues in the context of a potential market downturn. In late 2000, Lucent Technologies reports multiple revisions to its recent financial results due to revenue recognition problems, leading to a dramatic decline in its stock price.... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Revenue Recognition; Policy; Supply and Industry; Performance; Communications Industry
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      Healy, Paul M., and Arjuna J Costa. "Revenue Recognition Problems in the Communications Equipment Industry." Harvard Business School Case 107-025, August 2006. (Revised August 2007.)
      • August 2006
      • Article

      Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

      By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
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      Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
      • July 2006 (Revised March 2008)
      • Case

      Changan Automobile Co., Ltd.

      By: Dennis Campbell and Donglin Xia
      Chairman Yin Jiaxu must communicate that the company's extraordinary reported performance in 2002 reflects Changan's unique strategy within the competitive dynamics of China's automobile industry. Changan's 2002 annual report demonstrated an extraordinary level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Ethics; Corporate Disclosure; Media; Business and Shareholder Relations; Auto Industry; China
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      Campbell, Dennis, and Donglin Xia. "Changan Automobile Co., Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 107-006, July 2006. (Revised March 2008.)
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Dividends on Consumption

      By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
      Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Personal Finance; Investment Return; Household
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      Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
      • April 2006 (Revised October 2006)
      • Case

      Best Buy Co., Inc.: Customer-Centricity

      By: Rajiv Lal, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Irina Tarsis
      With FY2005 sales of $27.3 billion, Richfield, Minn.-based Best Buy Co., Inc. was the leading retailer of consumer electronics, home-office products, and related services in North America. Its operations included the distinct store formats Best Buy, Future Shop in... View Details
      Keywords: Customer Focus and Relationships; Service Operations; Business Earnings; Financial Crisis; Failure; Business Model; Leadership; Segmentation; Value Creation; Electronics Industry; United States; Canada; Mongolia
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      Lal, Rajiv, Carin-Isabel Knoop, and Irina Tarsis. "Best Buy Co., Inc.: Customer-Centricity." Harvard Business School Case 506-055, April 2006. (Revised October 2006.)
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