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(1,275)
- News (115)
- Research (1,050)
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- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (802)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,275)
- News (115)
- Research (1,050)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (802)
- Article
Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science 60, no. 2 (February 2014): 463–475.
- 03 Jan 2014
- News
Book Review: 'Fortune Tellers' by Walter Friedman
- March 1997
- Background Note
Copper and Zinc Markets 1996
By: Peter Tufano
Provides background information on copper and zinc markets as of mid-1996. Discusses supply and demand conditions, forecasts of the spot prices of the metals, and contracts for future delivery (forwards, futures, and options). View Details
Tufano, Peter, and Alberto Moel. "Copper and Zinc Markets 1996." Harvard Business School Background Note 297-055, March 1997.
Walter A. Friedman
Walter A. Friedman is Director of the Business History Initiative and Lecturer. He edits Business History Review with Geoff Jones. He specializes in business, labor, and economic history. He is author of Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First... View Details
- April 2008
- Tutorial
Finance: An Introductory Online Course
By: Timothy A. Luehrman, Brenda W. Chia and Michelle Rendall
The Finance Online Course provides a fundamental understanding of the principles, analytical tools, and knowledge needed to make good investment and financing decisions. The course introduces students to finance ratios, forecasting methods, capital structure theory,... View Details
- February 1982 (Revised August 1985)
- Case
U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)
Set in mid-1978, this case covers all aspects of the U.S. retail coffee market both cross-sectionally and historically. The market is recovering from dramatic price rises and volume drops. The overall issue is the forecast of future market evolution and the... View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Industry Growth; Market Timing; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
Yip, George S., and Jeffrey R Williams. "U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)." Harvard Business School Case 582-087, February 1982. (Revised August 1985.)
- January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
- Case
Advanced Technologies, Inc.
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Advanced Technologies, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 299-042, January 1999. (Revised June 2006.)
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- June 2023 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Optimalen Capital
A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details
Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing; Stocks
Baker, Malcolm, Elisabeth Kempf, and Jonathan Wallen. "Optimalen Capital." Harvard Business School Case 223-099, June 2023. (Revised April 2025.)
- January 2022
- Case
Tomorrow.io Goes to Space
By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Abhishek Nagaraj and James Barnett
This case study explores the evolution of Tomorrow.io, a weather forecasting technology company, as it pivoted toward building and launching space-based weather radar satellites. This strategic shift was driven by the company's ambition to overcome data limitations in... View Details
Keywords: Communication; Competency and Skills; Engineering; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Performance; Information Technology; Aerospace Industry
Krieger, Joshua Lev, Abhishek Nagaraj, and James Barnett. "Tomorrow.io Goes to Space." Harvard Business School Case 822-005, January 2022.
- 05 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change
- Research Summary
Dawn Matsumoto's research investigates managers' financial reporting decisions including the incentives driving these decisions and the impact of these decisions on capital market participants. She is interested in the role of financial intermediaries (such as... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Asset Management; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Competency and Skills
Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10685, February 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- 02 Oct 2020
- News
Building a Just and Climate-Ready Economy in a Post-COVID World
- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s... View Details
Keywords: Market Research; Operations; Management; Infrastructure; Logistics; Service Operations; Political Elections; Forecasting and Prediction; Asia; India
Raman, Ananth, Ann Winslow, and Kairavi Dey. "Axis My India." Harvard Business School Case 621-075, November 2020.
- January 1992 (Revised March 1993)
- Case
Maison Bouygues
By: John A. Quelch
The vice president of marketing is reviewing the 1991 marketing plan and budget for Maison Bouygues, the leading builder of new single family homes in France. Due to recession, the company's sales are forecast to be flat and adjustments may need to be made in the... View Details
Keywords: Housing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Brands and Branding; Construction Industry; France
Quelch, John A. "Maison Bouygues." Harvard Business School Case 592-059, January 1992. (Revised March 1993.)
- September 2002
- Case
Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand
By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry
Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
- Awards
INFORMS Revenue Management and Pricing Section Practice Award
Winner of the 2014 Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) Revenue Management and Pricing Section Practice Award with Murali Narayanaswamy, Philip Roizin, Jonathan Waggoner, Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi for "Analytics for an... View Details
- September 2011
- Article
What Drives Sell-Side Analyst Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David A. Maber
We use proprietary data from a major investment bank to investigate factors associated with analysts' annual compensation. We find compensation to be positively related to "All-Star" recognition, investment-banking contributions, the size of analysts' portfolios, and... View Details
Keywords: Investment Banking; Research; Compensation and Benefits; Investment Portfolio; Forecasting and Prediction; Resource Allocation; Status and Position; Business Earnings; Quality; Revenue; Stocks; Voting
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David A. Maber. "What Drives Sell-Side Analyst Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks?" Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 969–1000.