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      • May 2012
      • Article

      Complicated Firms

      By: Lauren Cohen and Dong Lou
      We exploit a novel setting in which the same piece of information affects two sets of firms: one set of firms requires straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Information; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Complexity; Mathematical Methods
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Dong Lou. "Complicated Firms." Journal of Financial Economics 104, no. 2 (May 2012). (Winner of Istanbul Stock Exchange 25th Anniversary Best Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Istanbul Stock Exchange. Winner of Center for Research in Security Prices Forum. Best Paper Prize presented by University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Winner of Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Academic Grant presented by Paul Woolley Centre for the Study of Capital Market Dysfunctionality. Winner of Crowell Memorial Prize For the best paper on quantitative investing presented by PanAgora Asset Management, Inc.)
      • April 2012
      • Article

      Bouncing Out of the Banking System: An Empirical Analysis of Involuntary Bank Account Closures

      By: Dennis Campbell, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez and Peter Tufano
      Using a new database, we document the factors that relate to the extent of involuntary consumer bank account closure resulting from excessive overdraft activity. Consumers who have accounts involuntarily closed for overdraft activity may have limited or no access to... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Customers; Social Issues; Outcome or Result; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Banks and Banking; Policy; Personal Characteristics; Credit; Employment; United States
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      Campbell, Dennis, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez, and Peter Tufano. "Bouncing Out of the Banking System: An Empirical Analysis of Involuntary Bank Account Closures." Journal of Banking & Finance 36, no. 4 (April 2012): 1224–1235.
      • April 2012
      • Article

      Share Issuance and Factor Timing

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Stock Shares; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Policy; Profit
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." Journal of Finance 67, no. 2 (April 2012): 761–798. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
      • Case

      Hayman Capital Management

      By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville
      In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Management; Speculative Bubbles; Japan; Government Policy; Financial Management; Price Bubble; Credit; Financial Strategy; Behavioral Finance; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Services Industry; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin, Julie Messina, and Jared Dourdeville. "Hayman Capital Management." Harvard Business School Case 212-091, March 2012. (Revised October 2012.)
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      ~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

      By: Matthew Weinzierl
      Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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      Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
      • January – March 2012
      • Article

      Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
      • December 2011
      • Article

      Stock Price Fragility

      By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar
      We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. We define an asset to be fragile if it is susceptible to non-fundamental trading shocks. An asset can be fragile because of concentrated ownership or because its... View Details
      Keywords: Stocks; Price; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; Assets; System Shocks; Financial Liquidity; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Volatility; Relationships; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin, and David Thesmar. "Stock Price Fragility." Journal of Financial Economics 102, no. 3 (December 2011): 471–490.
      • October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
      • Case

      Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India

      By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh
      Brinda Patel, director of oral care products for the India division of a consumer home-care product company, develops a data-driven marketing plan for toothbrushes. She believes her plan can support a 20% increase in unit sales based on rising demand for modern... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning & Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Advertising; Product Launch; Budgets and Budgeting; Product Development; Consumer Products Industry; Health Industry; India
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      Quelch, John A., and Alisa Zalosh. "Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India." Harvard Business School Brief Case 114-350, October 2011. (Revised March 2012.)
      • October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
      • Supplement

      Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh
      Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning & Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Product Design; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting
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      Quelch, John A., and Alisa Zalosh. "Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 114-352, October 2011. (Revised March 2012.)
      • October 2011 (Revised March 2012)
      • Supplement

      Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

      By: John A. Quelch and Alisa Zalosh
      Keywords: Forecasting; Budgeting; International Marketing; Product Planning & Policy; Sales Promotions; Marketing Plans; Products; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Product Design; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Budgets and Budgeting
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      Quelch, John A., and Alisa Zalosh. "Cottle-Taylor: Expanding the Oral Care Group in India, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 114-356, October 2011. (Revised March 2012.)
      • September 2011
      • Supplement

      TopCoder (B)

      By: Karim R. Lakhani, Eric Lonstein and Stephanie Pokrywa
      Metrology plays a key role in the manufacture of mechanical components. Traditionally it is used extensively in a pre-process stage where a manufacturer does process planning, design, and ramp-up, and in post-process off-line inspection to establish proof of quality.... View Details
      Keywords: Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Change Management; Production; Machinery and Machining; Planning; Quality; Competition; Diversification; Technology Adoption; Measurement and Metrics; Product Design; Manufacturing Industry
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      Lakhani, Karim R., Eric Lonstein, and Stephanie Pokrywa. "TopCoder (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 612-044, September 2011.
      • September 2011
      • Article

      Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas

      By: Edward J. Riedl and George Serafeim
      Using a sample of U.S. financial institutions, we exploit recent mandatory disclosures of financial instruments designated as fair value level 1, 2, and 3 to test whether greater information risk in financial instrument fair values leads to higher cost of capital. We... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Assets; Cost of Capital; Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Corporate Disclosure; Information; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; United States
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      Riedl, Edward J., and George Serafeim. "Information Risk and Fair Value: An Examination of Equity Betas." Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 1083–1122.
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly

      By: George Serafeim
      Keywords: Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?

      By: Michael Pirson and Deepak Malhotra
      Prior research on organizational trust has not rigorously examined the context specificity of trust nor distinguished between the potentially varying dimensions along which different stakeholders base their trust. As a result, dominant conceptualizations of... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Competency and Skills; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Organizations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Identity; Perspective
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      Pirson, Michael, and Deepak Malhotra. "Foundations of Organizational Trust: What Matters to Different Stakeholders?" Organization Science 22, no. 4 (July–August 2011): 1087–1104.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      The Paradox of Samsung's Rise

      By: Tarun Khanna, Jaeyong Song and Kyungmook Lee
      Twenty years ago, few people would have predicted that Samsung could transform itself from a low-cost original equipment manufacturer to a world leader in R&D, marketing, and design, with a brand more valuable than Pepsi, Nike, or American Express. Fewer still would... View Details
      Keywords: Organizational Design; Research and Development; Marketing; Business Processes; Brands and Branding; System; Globalized Markets and Industries; Transformation; Cost; Forecasting and Prediction; Production; Quality; China; India; Turkey
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      Khanna, Tarun, Jaeyong Song, and Kyungmook Lee. "The Paradox of Samsung's Rise." Harvard Business Review 89, nos. 7-8 (July–August 2011): 142–147.
      • July – August 2011
      • Article

      What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?

      By: Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria and George Serafeim
      A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Industry Growth; Judgments; Performance; Valuation; Price; Quality; Innovation and Invention; Organizational Culture; Competency and Skills; Surveys
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      Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
      • June 2011
      • Case

      Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

      By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
      In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions; Interest Rates; Policy
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      Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." Harvard Business School Case 711-048, June 2011.
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
      • March 2011
      • Article

      Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

      By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman
      This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details
      Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Beshears, John, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 77, no. 3 (March 2011): 304–317.
      • February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
      • Supplement

      The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)

      By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
      The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Auctions; Market Transactions; Valuation; Service Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm P., and David Lane. "The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-712, February 2011. (Revised February 2011.)
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