Publications

This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers.... View Details

December 2005
Article

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

By: Greg Allenby, Geraldine Fennel, Joel Huber, Thomas Eagle, Tim Gilbride, Jaehwan Kim, Peter Lenk, Rich Johnson, Bryan Orme, Elie Ofek, Thomas Otter and Joan Walker

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Markets; Behavior

2020
Conference Presentation

Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments

By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle

December 2023
Article

Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting

By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt

In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details

Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction

Purchase

30 Aug 2012
News

Three Tips for Leaders About to Miss Their Forecasts

2018
Working Paper

Us and Them: Predicting Firm Stock Performance via Social Media Sentiment about Competitors

By: Frank Nagle

22 Apr 2020
Video

Daniel Schrag on the Science of Forecasting Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

June 2015
Supplement

Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield

This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam... View Details

Keywords: Dividends; Share Repurchases; Earnings Guidance; Financial Statement Analysis; Financial Ratios; Payout Policy; Earnings Per Share (EPS); Earnings Management; Change Management; Leadership; Transformation; Financial Strategy

Purchase

July 1981
Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets

February 2022
Teaching Note

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

By: Navid Mojir

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details

Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey

Purchase

02 Feb 2025
News

Why the 2024 US Election, and So Many Others, Were So Hard to Predict

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

2013
Working Paper

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs

By: Juan Alcacer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida

Although Strategy research aims to understand how firm actions have differential effects on performance, most empirical research estimates the average effects of these actions across firms. This paper promotes Random Coefficients Models (RCMs) as an ideal empirical... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

30 May 2023
Research & Ideas

Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

21 Oct 2015
Research & Ideas

How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good

innovation and entrepreneurship. When dealing with something truly innovative, it’s difficult to compare it to anything that came before. That uncertainty makes the line between a tremendous success and a... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Accommodations; Financial Services

Article

Learning and Equilibrium as Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, R. Slonim and Greg Barron

Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

1990
Thesis

Parameter Prediction and Visualization to Aid the Decision-Making Process in an Automated Fabrication Environment

By: Stefan Thomke

2014
Working Paper

Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks