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(3,262)
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- Faculty Publications (1,591)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,262)
- News (504)
- Research (2,482)
- Events (39)
- Multimedia (17)
- Faculty Publications (1,591)
- 26 Jun 2014
- News
Shifting toward Defined Contributions — Predicting the Effects
- 11 Mar 2014
- News
Health companies eye predictive software for patient care
- Article
The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
- 04 Dec 2013
- News
Economic Prediction Made Us (Too) Comfortable With Capitalism
- Article
Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking
Dijksterhuis, Ap, Maarten W. Bos, Andries Van der Leij, and Rick B. Van Baaren. "Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise." Psychological Science 20, no. 11 (November 2009): 1381–1387.
- December 2023
- Article
Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting
By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details
Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction
Coleman, Braiden, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting." Review of Accounting Studies 28, no. 4 (December 2023): 2075–2103.
- 27 Jun 2017
- News
ClimaCell Wants To Be The Bloomberg Of Weather Forecasting
- 30 May 2023
- Research & Ideas
Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?
data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
- 2013
- Working Paper
Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'." Working Paper, September 2013.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs
By: Juan Alcacer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
Although Strategy research aims to understand how firm actions have differential effects on performance, most empirical research estimates the average effects of these actions across firms. This paper promotes Random Coefficients Models (RCMs) as an ideal empirical... View Details
Alcacer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-022, September 2013.
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- 2014
- Working Paper
Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World
By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks
Kogan, A., F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner, and A.W. Brooks. "Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World." Working Paper, 2014.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization
By: J. Lees
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
- February 2022
- Teaching Note
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI
By: Navid Mojir
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053. View Details