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- All HBS Web
(3,296)
- News (517)
- Research (2,504)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,610)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,296)
- News (517)
- Research (2,504)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,610)
- Article
The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- 2020
- Conference Presentation
Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments
By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle
- 27 Jun 2017
- News
ClimaCell Wants To Be The Bloomberg Of Weather Forecasting
- 26 Jun 2014
- News
Shifting toward Defined Contributions — Predicting the Effects
- 2013
- Working Paper
Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Appendix to 'Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity'." Working Paper, September 2013.
- 11 Mar 2014
- News
Health companies eye predictive software for patient care
- 30 May 2023
- Research & Ideas
Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?
data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
- 04 Dec 2013
- News
Economic Prediction Made Us (Too) Comfortable With Capitalism
- 2025
- Working Paper
Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China
By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin
We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool
in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts
issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details
Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets
Cao, Sheng, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Huifang Yin. "Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-095, March 2018. (Revised March 2025.)
- 2013
- Working Paper
Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs
By: Juan Alcacer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
Although Strategy research aims to understand how firm actions have differential effects on performance, most empirical research estimates the average effects of these actions across firms. This paper promotes Random Coefficients Models (RCMs) as an ideal empirical... View Details
Alcacer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Goncalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Testing for Firm Heterogeneity, Predicting Firm-Specific Coefficients, and Estimating Strategy Trade-Offs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-022, September 2013.
- 2014
- Working Paper
Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World
By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks
Kogan, A., F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner, and A.W. Brooks. "Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World." Working Paper, 2014.
- July 1981
- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization
By: J. Lees
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- Article
Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking
Dijksterhuis, Ap, Maarten W. Bos, Andries Van der Leij, and Rick B. Van Baaren. "Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise." Psychological Science 20, no. 11 (November 2009): 1381–1387.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
- fall 2004
- Article
Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)
By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins
Bazerman, M., and Michael Watkins. "Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)." Compass 2, no. 1 (fall 2004): 42–43.
- Summer 2021
- Article
Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
- March 2003
- Article
Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming
By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman
Watkins, Michael D., and Max H. Bazerman. "Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming." Harvard Business Review 81, no. 3 (March 2003). (Reprinted in H. Balanoff (Ed.), Public Administration, McGraw-Hill, 2004.)