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      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • Summer 2021
      • Article

      Platform Leadership and Supply Chains: Intel, Centrino, and the Restructuring of Wi-Fi Supply

      By: Roberto Fontana and Shane Greenstein
      In this paper we examine Intel’s launch of Centrino and interpret it as platform leaders attempt to restructure a supply chain. We provide a narrative of key actions and how they coordinated changes and offer a framework of the predictable consequences for... View Details
      Keywords: Mobile and Wireless Technology; Product Launch; Supply Chain; Restructuring; Framework
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      Fontana, Roberto, and Shane Greenstein. "Platform Leadership and Supply Chains: Intel, Centrino, and the Restructuring of Wi-Fi Supply." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 30, no. 2 (Summer 2021): 259–286.
      • Article

      Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations

      By: Sushant Agarwal, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in critical domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there has been a growing emphasis on developing techniques for explaining these black boxes in a post hoc manner. In this work, we analyze two... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Black Box Explanations; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology
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      Agarwal, Sushant, Shahin Jabbari, Chirag Agarwal, Sohini Upadhyay, Steven Wu, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Towards the Unification and Robustness of Perturbation and Gradient Based Explanations." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 38th (2021).
      • 2021
      • Book

      Why Startups Fail: A New Roadmap for Entrepreneurial Success

      By: Thomas R. Eisenmann
      Why Startups Fail explores entrepreneurial failure, examining its predictable patterns, how to avoid them, and how to cope when failure does occur. Part I looks at three common failure patterns for early-stage startups, illustrating each with an anchor case... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Failure; Success; Framework
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      Eisenmann, Thomas R. Why Startups Fail: A New Roadmap for Entrepreneurial Success. New York: Currency, 2021.
      • Article

      Work Group Rituals Enhance the Meaning of Work

      By: Tami Kim, Ovul Sezer, Juliana Schroeder, Jane L. Risen, Francesca Gino and Michael I. Norton
      The many benefits of finding meaning in work suggest the importance of identifying activities that increase job meaningfulness. The current paper identifies one such activity: engaging in rituals with workgroups. Five studies (N = 1,099) provide evidence that... View Details
      Keywords: Groups; Meaningfulness; Task Meaning; Ritual; Teams; Organizational Citizenship; Groups and Teams; Behavior; Familiarity
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      Kim, Tami, Ovul Sezer, Juliana Schroeder, Jane L. Risen, Francesca Gino, and Michael I. Norton. "Work Group Rituals Enhance the Meaning of Work." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 165 (July 2021): 197–212.
      • Article

      Birds of a Feather...Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy

      By: Hongyi Li and Eric J. Van den Steen
      Does culture eat strategy for breakfast? This paper investigates the interactions among corporate culture, norms, and strategy, in order to better understand this issue and related questions. It first shows, through microfoundations, how the forces that drive toward... View Details
      Keywords: Culture; Norms; Organizational Culture; Strategy; Values and Beliefs
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      Li, Hongyi, and Eric J. Van den Steen. "Birds of a Feather...Enforce Social Norms? Interactions Among Culture, Norms, and Strategy." Strategy Science 6, no. 2 (June 2021): 166–189.
      • June 2021
      • Article

      Does the Freedom of Information Act Foil the Securities and Exchange Commission's Intent to Keep Investigations Confidential?

      By: Braiden Coleman, Kenneth Merkley, Brian Miller and Joseph Pacelli
      The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a long-standing policy to keep formal investigations confidential. In this study, we examine the extent to which compliance with the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) provides investors with information about ongoing SEC... View Details
      Keywords: Securities And Exchange Commission (SEC) Investigations; Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA); Exemption Denials
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      Coleman, Braiden, Kenneth Merkley, Brian Miller, and Joseph Pacelli. "Does the Freedom of Information Act Foil the Securities and Exchange Commission's Intent to Keep Investigations Confidential?" Management Science 67, no. 6 (June 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency

      By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
      The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received... View Details
      Keywords: Pay Transparency; Online Labor Market; Privacy; Wage Gap; Negotiation; Corporate Disclosure; Compensation and Benefits; Gender
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      Cullen, Zoë B., and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson. "Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency." Working Paper, June 2021. (Econometrica, Vol 91, No. 3 (May, 2023), 765-802.)
      • Article

      Measuring Audit Quality

      By: Shivaram Rajgopal, Suraj Srinivasan and Xin Zheng
      In this paper, we document 45 specific allegations related to audit deficiencies based on GAAS, as detailed in 141 AAERs and 153 securities class action lawsuits over the violation years 1978–2016. Next, we use these allegations to validate existing popular proxies of... View Details
      Keywords: Audit Quality; Audit Deficiency; AAER; Securities Class Action Lawsuits; Enforcement; Accounting Audits; Quality; Measurement and Metrics
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      Rajgopal, Shivaram, Suraj Srinivasan, and Xin Zheng. "Measuring Audit Quality." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 2 (June 2021): 559–619.
      • July–August 2021
      • Article

      Why You Aren't Getting More from Your Marketing AI

      By: Eva Ascarza, Michael Ross and Bruce G.S. Hardie
      Fewer than 40% of companies that invest in AI see gains from it, usually because of one or more of these errors: (1) They don’t ask the right question, and end up directing AI to solve the wrong problem. (2) They don’t recognize the differences between the value of... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Decision Making; Communication; Framework; AI and Machine Learning
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      Ascarza, Eva, Michael Ross, and Bruce G.S. Hardie. "Why You Aren't Getting More from Your Marketing AI." Harvard Business Review 99, no. 4 (July–August 2021): 48–54.
      • May 2021 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      Coats: Supply Chain Challenges

      By: Willy C. Shih and Adina Wong
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chains; Digital; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C., and Adina Wong. "Coats: Supply Chain Challenges." Harvard Business School Case 621-115, May 2021. (Revised July 2021.)
      • May 2021
      • Case

      Roku 2021

      By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher
      This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and streaming media (that is, Look Forward) by... View Details
      Keywords: Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Media and Broadcasting Industry
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      Yoffie, David B., and Daniel Fisher. "Roku 2021." Harvard Business School Case 721-480, May 2021.
      • May 2021 (Revised February 2024)
      • Teaching Note

      THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Jill Avery
      THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details
      Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Predictive Analytics; App Development; "Marketing Analytics"; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Jill Avery. "THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 521-097, May 2021. (Revised February 2024.)
      • May 2021
      • Article

      Choice Architecture in Physician–patient Communication: A Mixed-methods Assessment of Physicians' Competency

      By: J. Hart, K. Yadav, S. Szymanski, A. Summer, A. Tannenbaum, J. Zlatev, D. Daniels and S.D. Halpern
      Background: Clinicians’ use of choice architecture, or how they present options, systematically influences the choices made by patients and their surrogate decision makers. However, clinicians may incompletely understand this influence.... View Details
      Keywords: Choice Architecture; Health Care and Treatment; Interpersonal Communication; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competency and Skills
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      Hart, J., K. Yadav, S. Szymanski, A. Summer, A. Tannenbaum, J. Zlatev, D. Daniels, and S.D. Halpern. "Choice Architecture in Physician–patient Communication: A Mixed-methods Assessment of Physicians' Competency." BMJ Quality & Safety 30, no. 5 (May 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

      By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making
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      Choi, Ki-Soon, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-126, May 2021.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Property Rights and Urban Form

      By: Simeon Djankov, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti and Andrei Shleifer
      How do the different elements in the standard bundle of property rights, including those of possession and transfer, influence the shape of cities? This paper incorporates insecure property rights into a standard model of urban land prices and density, and makes... View Details
      Keywords: Property; Rights; City; Development Economics; Global Range
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      Djankov, Simeon, Edward L. Glaeser, Valeria Perotti, and Andrei Shleifer. "Property Rights and Urban Form." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28793, May 2021.
      • April 2021
      • Case

      Distinct Software

      By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray
      Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning
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      Narayandas, Das, Arijit Sengupta, and Jonathan Wray. "Distinct Software." Harvard Business School Case 521-101, April 2021.
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective

      By: Srikant Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang and Siyu Zhang
      We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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      Datar, Srikant, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Siyu Zhang. "Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-113, December 2020.
      • April 2021
      • Article

      Homing and Platform Responses to Entry: Historical Evidence from the U.S. Newspaper Industry

      By: K. Francis Park, Robert Seamans and Feng Zhu
      We examine how heterogeneity in customers’ tendencies to single-home or multi-home affects a platform’s competitive responses to new entrants in the market. We first develop a formal model to generate predictions about how a platform will respond. We then empirically... View Details
      Keywords: Single-homing; Multi-homing; Platform Responses; Newpaper; Television; Digital Platforms; Market Entry and Exit; Newspapers; Television Entertainment; History; Journalism and News Industry; Journalism and News Industry
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      Park, K. Francis, Robert Seamans, and Feng Zhu. "Homing and Platform Responses to Entry: Historical Evidence from the U.S. Newspaper Industry." Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 4 (April 2021): 684–709.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage

      By: Ehsan Valavi, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani
      Data is fundamental to machine learning-based products and services and is considered strategic due to its externalities for businesses, governments, non-profits, and more generally for society. It is renowned that the value of organizations (businesses, government... View Details
      Keywords: Economics Of AI; Value Of Data; Perishability; Time Dependency; Flow Of Data; Data Strategy; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Strategy; Competitive Advantage
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      Valavi, Ehsan, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-099, March 2021.
      • March 2021 (Revised January 2022)
      • Case

      Philips: Redefining Telehealth

      By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Alec Petersen, Natalie Kindred and Sara M. McKinley
      As one of the world’s largest healthcare companies, Philips sought to reach beyond the walls of the hospital and expand its hospital-to-home program to gain future competitive advantage through technology solutions combining predictive analytics with care delivery. By... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care; Philips; Visicu; Telemedicine; eICU; Accountable Care Organization; ACO; Bundled Payment; Hospital To Home; Patient Monitoring Devices; Home Health Care; Health Care and Treatment; Communication Technology; Quality; Safety; Performance Productivity; Performance Capacity; Performance Efficiency; Consumer Behavior; Emerging Markets; Health Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Netherlands
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      Herzlinger, Regina E., Alec Petersen, Natalie Kindred, and Sara M. McKinley. "Philips: Redefining Telehealth." Harvard Business School Case 321-135, March 2021. (Revised January 2022.) (As companion reading for this case, see: Regina E. Herzlinger and Charles Huang. "Note on Bundled Payment in Health Care," HBS Background Note 312-032.)
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