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    • All HBS Web  (3,226)
      • Faculty Publications  (596)

      Economic Value EstimationRemove Economic Value Estimation →

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      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • Article

      Valuing Time Over Money Is Associated with Greater Happiness

      By: A.V. Whillans, Aaron C. Weidman and Elizabeth W. Dunn
      How do the trade-offs that we make about two of our most valuable resources—time and money—shape happiness? While past research has documented the immediate consequences of thinking about time and money, research has not yet examined whether people’s general... View Details
      Keywords: Well-being; Time; Trade-offs; Orientations; Happiness; Money; Satisfaction
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      Whillans, A.V., Aaron C. Weidman, and Elizabeth W. Dunn. "Valuing Time Over Money Is Associated with Greater Happiness." Social Psychological & Personality Science 7, no. 3 (April 2016): 213–222.
      • March 2016 (Revised April 2019)
      • Technical Note

      ESG Metrics: Reshaping Capitalism?

      By: George Serafeim
      In the past twenty-five years, the world had seen an exponential growth in the number of companies reporting environmental, social and governance (ESG) data. Investor interest in ESG data also grew rapidly. A growing belief that increasing levels of social inequality... View Details
      Keywords: Capitalism; Sustainability; Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility; Responsibilities To Society; Environment; Social Impact Investment; ESG; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Corporate Accountability; Accounting; Economic Systems
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      Serafeim, George, and Jody Grewal. "ESG Metrics: Reshaping Capitalism?" Harvard Business School Technical Note 116-037, March 2016. (Revised April 2019.)
      • March 2016
      • Teaching Note

      Advanced Leadership Pathways: Inge Skjelfjord and the Cacao Supply Chain

      By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone
      Inge Skjelfjord, with a long career in international finance focused on agribusiness projects, had a vision to build a cacao research center that would help smallholder cacao farmers, who benefited the least from the chocolate value chain. He aimed to support the... View Details
      Keywords: Agribusiness Industry; Farming; Farm; Policy; Change Management; Innovation; Agribusiness; Education; Economic Growth; Research; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Ecuador
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      Kanter, Rosabeth Moss, and Ai-Ling Jamila Malone. "Advanced Leadership Pathways: Inge Skjelfjord and the Cacao Supply Chain." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 316-122, March 2016.
      • March 2016
      • Case

      M-Pesa: Financial Inclusion in Kenya

      By: Rajiv Lal, Lisa Cox and Sarah McAra
      M-Pesa, a mobile money transfer service launched in 2007 in Kenya by telecommunications company Safaricom, allowed people to send money via mobile messaging to contacts, such as friends and family, or even to pay for goods and services, such as groceries or a taxi... View Details
      Keywords: Mobile Money Transfer; Market Transactions; Emerging Markets; Developing Countries and Economies; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Kenya
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      Lal, Rajiv, Lisa Cox, and Sarah McAra. "M-Pesa: Financial Inclusion in Kenya." Harvard Business School Case 516-011, March 2016.
      • March 2016
      • Article

      Highway to Success: The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral Project for the Location and Performance of Indian Manufacturing

      By: Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover Goswami and William R. Kerr
      We investigate the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) highway project on the Indian organized manufacturing sector using enterprise data. The GQ project upgraded the quality and width of 5,846 km of roads in India. We use a difference-in-difference estimation... View Details
      Keywords: Highways; Roads; India; Development; Manufacturing; Density; Rent; Infrastructure; Manufacturing Industry; India
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      Ghani, Ejaz, Arti Grover Goswami, and William R. Kerr. "Highway to Success: The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral Project for the Location and Performance of Indian Manufacturing." Economic Journal 126, no. 591 (March 2016): 317–357.
      • Article

      Optimal Taxation When Children's Abilities Depend on Parents' Resources

      By: Alexander Gelber and Matthew Weinzierl
      Empirical research suggests that parents' economic resources affect their children's future earnings abilities. Optimal tax policy therefore treats future ability distributions as endogenous to current taxes. We model this endogeneity, calibrate the model to match... View Details
      Keywords: Taxation; Family and Family Relationships; Welfare
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      Gelber, Alexander, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Optimal Taxation When Children's Abilities Depend on Parents' Resources." National Tax Journal 69, no. 1 (March 2016): 11–40. (Winner, Richard A. Musgrave prize for best paper published in the NTJ. Also HBS Working Paper 13-014 and NBER Working Paper 18332.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Staggered Boards and Shareholder Value: A Reply to Amihud and Stoyanov

      By: Alma Cohen and Charles C.Y. Wang
      In a paper published in the Journal of Financial Economics in 2013, we provided evidence that market participants perceive staggered boards to be on average value-reducing. In a recent response paper, Amihud and Stoyanov (2015) “contest” our results. They... View Details
      Keywords: Staggered Boards; Takeover Defense; Antitakeover Provision; Firm Value; Agency Costs; Delaware; Chancery Court; Airgas; Governing and Advisory Boards; Acquisition; Corporate Governance; Business and Shareholder Relations; Delaware
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      Cohen, Alma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Staggered Boards and Shareholder Value: A Reply to Amihud and Stoyanov." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-097, February 2016.
      • Editorial

      How to Turn Around a Country

      By: Paul Kazarian and George Serafeim
      Change is hard. Especially trying to change an entire country and its public sector that consists of more than 650,000 employees and has an annual budget of approximately 80 billion euros. This is the case of Greece, once the fastest-growing eurozone country, which has... View Details
      Keywords: Greece; Europe; European Union; Turnaround; Accountability; Sovereign Finance; Leadership; Corporate Accountability; Public Sector; Accounting; Economic Growth; Change; European Union; Greece
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      Kazarian, Paul, and George Serafeim. "How to Turn Around a Country." Kathimerini (January 19, 2016).
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

      By: Erik Stafford
      Private equity funds tend to select relatively small firms with low EBITDA multiples. Publicly traded equities with these characteristics have high risk-adjusted returns after controlling for common factors typically associated with value stocks. Hold-to-maturity... View Details
      Keywords: Value Investing; Endowments; Investment Management; Asset Pricing; Private Equity; Investment; Management; United States
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      Stafford, Erik. "Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-081, January 2016.
      • January 2016
      • Case

      Haiti Hope: Innovating the Mango Value Chain

      By: Amy C. Edmondson and Jean-François Harvey
      This case study examines a market-based approach to economic development through the eyes of NGO TechnoServe's project manager, implementing a US$9.5 million five-year public-private partnership between Coca-Cola, IDB, and USAID. The case ends at the beginning of the... View Details
      Keywords: Sustainability; Economic Development; Corporate Social Responsibility; Emerging Country; Teaming; Public-private Partnership; Inter-organizational Relationships; Collaboration; Strategy Implementation; Agricultural Commodity; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Public Sector; Supply Chain Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Learning; Partners and Partnerships; Private Sector; Developing Countries and Economies; Social Enterprise; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Haiti
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      Edmondson, Amy C., and Jean-François Harvey. "Haiti Hope: Innovating the Mango Value Chain." Harvard Business School Case 616-040, January 2016.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Who Should Select New Employees, Headquarters or the Unit Manager? Consequences of Centralizing Hiring at a Retail Chain

      By: Carolyn Deller and Tatiana Sandino
      We examine how changing the allocation of hiring decision rights in a multiunit organization affects employee-firm match quality, contingent on a unit’s circumstances. Our research site, a US retail chain, switched from a decentralized hiring model (hiring by business... View Details
      Keywords: Control; Selection; Decentralization; Company Values; Retail Chains; Decision Making; Economics; Geography; Employees; Selection and Staffing; Organizational Design; Situation or Environment; Retail Industry
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      Deller, Carolyn, and Tatiana Sandino. "Who Should Select New Employees, Headquarters or the Unit Manager? Consequences of Centralizing Hiring at a Retail Chain." Harvard Business School Series in Accounting and Control, No. 16-088, January 2016. (Revised August 2019. Forthcoming in The Accounting Review.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Business Groups Exist in Developed Markets Also: Britain Since 1850

      By: Geoffrey Jones
      Diversified business groups are well-known phenomena in emerging markets, both today and historically. This is often explained by the prevalence of institutional voids or the nature of government-business relations. It is typically assumed that such groups were much... View Details
      Keywords: Business Groups; Business History; Economic History; Conglomerates; Entrepreneurship; Globalization; Management; Organizations; United Kingdom
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      Jones, Geoffrey. "Business Groups Exist in Developed Markets Also: Britain Since 1850." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-066, November 2015.
      • November 2015 (Revised August 2016)
      • Case

      Unilever's New Global Strategy: Competing through Sustainability

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett
      In January 2009, when Paul Polman was appointed CEO of Unilever, he inherited a company in long-term decline at the beginning of a major global financial crisis. As the first outsider ever recruited to lead the company, Polman lost little time in challenging the... View Details
      Keywords: Globalized Firms and Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Competitive Strategy; Environmental Sustainability; Consumer Products Industry
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      Bartlett, Christopher A. "Unilever's New Global Strategy: Competing through Sustainability." Harvard Business School Case 916-414, November 2015. (Revised August 2016.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

      By: Emil Siriwardane
      I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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      Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
      • October 2015
      • Article

      The Value of Bosses

      By: Edward P. Lazear, Kathryn L. Shaw and Christopher Stanton
      How and by how much do supervisors enhance worker productivity? Using a company-based data set on the productivity of technology-based services workers, supervisor effects are estimated and found to be large. Replacing a boss who is in the lower 10% of boss quality... View Details
      Keywords: Supervisors; Management Skills; Employees; Performance Productivity
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      Lazear, Edward P., Kathryn L. Shaw, and Christopher Stanton. "The Value of Bosses." Journal of Labor Economics 33, no. 4 (October 2015): 823–861.
      • Article

      Ignore June 30: Time is on the Side of a Better Iran Deal

      By: James K. Sebenius
      Prior to the "interim deal" reached in November 2013, Iranian nuclear negotiators could—and did—play for time while the regime rapidly added more centrifuges and increased production of enriched uranium. That is no longer the case. For the first time in years, the... View Details
      Keywords: International Relations; Negotiation Tactics; Negotiation Deal; Iran; United States; Iran; United States
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      Sebenius, James K. "Ignore June 30: Time is on the Side of a Better Iran Deal." Iran Matters (June 28, 2015).
      • June 2015 (Revised January 2017)
      • Case

      Greece's Debt: Sustainable?

      By: George Serafeim
      The case "Greece's Debt: Sustainable?" describes the Greek economic crisis, bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the debt restructuring that followed. Because of a lack of trust in Greece's ability to repay its debt, two... View Details
      Keywords: Debt Crisis; Accounting; Debt Sustainability; Austerity; Solvency Opinions; Borrowing and Debt; Restructuring; Valuation; Accrual Accounting; Fair Value Accounting; Economy; Greece
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      Serafeim, George. "Greece's Debt: Sustainable?" Harvard Business School Case 115-063, June 2015. (Revised January 2017.)
      • Article

      The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach

      By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
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      Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
      • April 2015 (Revised October 2019)
      • Case

      The Great Divergence: Europe and Modern Economic Growth

      By: Sophus A. Reinert
      The continent of Europe seemed in the spring of 2015 to be in a weaker position relative to other world regions than it had in centuries. Though comparatively small, it had long played a disproportionate role in world history, to the extent that the modern world system... View Details
      Keywords: The Great Divergence; Modern Economic Growth; Empire; Disruption; Economic Growth; Values and Beliefs; History; Globalization; Europe
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      Reinert, Sophus A. "The Great Divergence: Europe and Modern Economic Growth." Harvard Business School Case 715-039, April 2015. (Revised October 2019.)
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