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      Judgment And Decision MakingRemove Judgment And Decision Making →

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      • November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
      • Case

      Science Technology Co.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
      Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
      • May 1974
      • Article

      Fallacy of the Log-Normal Approximation to Optimal Portfolio Decision Making over Many Periods

      By: Robert C. Merton and Paul A. Samuelson
      Keywords: Investment; Decision Making
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      Merton, Robert C., and Paul A. Samuelson. "Fallacy of the Log-Normal Approximation to Optimal Portfolio Decision Making over Many Periods." Journal of Financial Economics 1 (May 1974): 67–94.
      • December 1973 (Revised November 1993)
      • Case

      Cooper Industries, Inc.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The executive president of a major industrial company must decide 1) whether to acquire a small hand tool company and, if so, 2) the value and form that the acquisition package should take. View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Valuation; Acquisition; Management Teams; Consumer Products Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Cooper Industries, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 274-116, December 1973. (Revised November 1993.)
      • November 1973 (Revised April 1983)
      • Case

      Southport Minerals, Inc.

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Examines how the attractiveness of an investment project can be enhanced by making financing and operating decisions which either manage investment returns or reduce project risks. View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Financing and Loans; Investment; Investment Return; Risk Management; Operations; Projects
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "Southport Minerals, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 274-110, November 1973. (Revised April 1983.)
      • November 1973 (Revised November 1991)
      • Case

      Economy Shipping Co. (Abridged)

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Shipping company must choose among several mutually exclusive investment projects. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment; Projects; Shipping Industry
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Economy Shipping Co. (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 274-092, November 1973. (Revised November 1991.)
      • January 1972
      • Background Note

      Note on Forecasting

      By: Paul W. Marshall
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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      Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
      • December 1971 (Revised December 1994)
      • Background Note

      Capital Structure Decision: Underlying Theory

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Demonstrates hypothetically and numerically the share price valuation impact of changes in a firm's capital structure. View Details
      Keywords: Capital Structure; Decisions
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "Capital Structure Decision: Underlying Theory." Harvard Business School Background Note 272-096, December 1971. (Revised December 1994.)
      • December 1971 (Revised November 1975)
      • Background Note

      Note on Decision Analysis

      By: Paul W. Marshall
      Keywords: Decision Making; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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      Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Decision Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-221, December 1971. (Revised November 1975.)
      • January 1971
      • Article

      Admissible Decision Rules for the E-Model of Chance-Constrained Programming

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Mark Eisner and John Soden
      Keywords: Decision Making; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Mark Eisner, and John Soden. "Admissible Decision Rules for the E-Model of Chance-Constrained Programming." Management Science 17 (January 1971): 337–353.
      • March 1969 (Revised January 2000)
      • Case

      Industrial Products, Inc.

      By: Joseph L. Bower and John W. Rosenblum
      Involves the decision of whether to construct a new plant in another part of the country for a line of fire protection equipment. Capital funds set aside for the construction are blocked by Fireguard's continued record of substantial operating losses and divisional... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Factories, Labs, and Plants; Capital; Construction; Financing and Loans; Expansion; Business Earnings; Markets; Product; Manufacturing Industry
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      Bower, Joseph L., and John W. Rosenblum. "Industrial Products, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 369-019, March 1969. (Revised January 2000.)
      • Article

      The Role of Conflict in Economic Decision-Making Groups: Some Empirical Results

      By: Joseph L. Bower
      Keywords: Conflict and Resolution; Economics; Decision Making; Groups and Teams; Information
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      Bower, Joseph L. "The Role of Conflict in Economic Decision-Making Groups: Some Empirical Results." Quarterly Journal of Economics 79, no. 2 (May 1965).
      • 1965
      • Article

      Group Decision Making: A Report of an Experimental Study

      By: Joseph L. Bower
      When a group of people must decide on some one action, such as where shall we go out to dinner, or in an investment club which stock shall we buy, how do the individual members come to a decision that affords the best resolution of the question at hand for the group as... View Details
      Keywords: Groups and Teams; Decision Making; Conflict Management
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      Bower, Joseph L. "Group Decision Making: A Report of an Experimental Study." Behavioral Science 10, no. 3 (1965): 277–289.
      • December 1961 (Revised January 1994)
      • Case

      Plowman Poultry Farm

      By: Samuel L. Hayes III
      A poultry farmer wanted to expand production greatly and sought a large extension of his line of credit from his bank in addition to his existing loan on which he had not made payment. The Board of Directors must review a detailed account of events leading to this... View Details
      Keywords: Governing and Advisory Boards; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Expansion; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financing and Loans; Commercial Banking; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
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      Hayes, Samuel L., III. "Plowman Poultry Farm." Harvard Business School Case 262-003, December 1961. (Revised January 1994.)
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces

      By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
      It has long been a mantra of marketing practice that, particularly in low-involvement situations, spokespeople should be physically attractive. This paper suggests there is a higher probability of gaining fame and influence (i.e., celebrity potential) than is captured... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Characteristics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing
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      Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) (forthcoming). (Pre-published online February 12, 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

      By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
      BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality
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      Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Asymmetric Mass Mobilization and the Vincibility of Democracy in Hungary

      By: Laura Jakli, Béla Greskovits and Jason Wittenberg
      Using an original dataset of partisan protest events in Hungary (n = 4836) spanning 1989 to 2011, we argue that left-liberal parties’ neglect in cultivating civil society during the post-communist period had deleterious downstream effects on Hungarian liberal... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Government Administration; Hungary
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      Jakli, Laura, Béla Greskovits, and Jason Wittenberg. "Asymmetric Mass Mobilization and the Vincibility of Democracy in Hungary." Comparative Political Studies (forthcoming). (Pre-published online January 10, 2025.)
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act

      By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa
      How did southern whites respond to the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA)? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that... View Details
      Keywords: Government Legislation; Race; Behavior; Voting; Prejudice and Bias
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      Bernini, Andrea, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini, and Cecilia Testa. "Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act." Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming). (Also available on Vox EU and VoxDev. Featured on HBS Working Knowledge.)
      • Research Summary

      Business Leaders and Corporate Responsibility

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Thomas R. Piper is trying to establish an appropriate sense of ethics and corporate responsibility for future business leaders. Earlier research provided compelling evidence that many future leaders seriously doubt that their interpersonal ethics can be brought into... View Details
      • Teaching Interest

      Business Opportunties in Climate Adaptation

      By: John D. Macomber

      This is a Short Intensive Program or SIP at Harvard Business School.  It’s an optional student offering prior to the formal start of the Spring semester the following week.  SIPs tend to cover new material on current topics, to be less formal than the HBS Case Study... View Details

      Keywords: Resilience; Climate Risk; Climate Impact; Fire Protection; Insurance Risk Exposure; Hedge Fund; Public Health; Public Health Measures; Climate Change; Adaptation; Infrastructure; Real Estate Industry; Transportation Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Africa; Latin America
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Catching Outliers: Committee Voting and the Limits of Consensus When Financing Innovation

      By: Andrey Malenko, Ramana Nanda, Matthew Rhodes-Kropf and Savitar Sundaresan
      We document that investment committees of major VCs use a voting rule where one partner `championing' an early-stage investment is sufficient to invest. Their stated reason for this rule is to `catch outliers'. The same VCs use a more conventional `majority' rule for... View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Voting Rules; Innovation and Invention; Venture Capital; Investment; Decision Making; Voting
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      Malenko, Andrey, Ramana Nanda, Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, and Savitar Sundaresan. "Catching Outliers: Committee Voting and the Limits of Consensus When Financing Innovation." Journal of Finance (forthcoming).
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