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    • All HBS Web  (120,296)
      • Faculty Publications  (590)

      Risk and UncertaintyRemove Risk and Uncertainty →

      ← Page 13 of 590 Results →
      • May 2011 (Revised July 2012)
      • Exercise

      Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Johnson & Johnson

      By: Guhan Subramanian and Rhea Ghosh
      This two-party negotiation exercise features a real-life dispute between Merck and Johnson & Johnson regarding European distribution rights to two highly lucrative drugs. View Details
      Keywords: Price; Rights; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Deal; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Europe
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      Subramanian, Guhan, and Rhea Ghosh. "Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Johnson & Johnson." Harvard Business School Exercise 911-045, May 2011. (Revised July 2012.)
      • May 2011 (Revised July 2012)
      • Exercise

      Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Merck

      By: Guhan Subramanian and Rhea Ghosh
      This two-party negotiation exercise features a real-life dispute between Merck and Johnson & Johnson regarding European distribution rights to two highly lucrative drugs. View Details
      Keywords: Price; Rights; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Deal; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Subramanian, Guhan, and Rhea Ghosh. "Remicade/Simponi: Confidential Instructions for Merck." Harvard Business School Exercise 911-044, May 2011. (Revised July 2012.)
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis

      By: Kevin J. Boudreau, Nicola Lacetera and Karim R. Lakhani
      Contests are a historically important and increasingly popular mechanism for encouraging innovation. A central concern in designing innovation contests is how many competitors to admit. Using a unique data set of 9,661 software contests, we provide evidence of two... View Details
      Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Innovation and Invention; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Value; Applications and Software; Competition; Performance; Theory; Practice
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      Boudreau, Kevin J., Nicola Lacetera, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Incentives and Problem Uncertainty in Innovation Contests: An Empirical Analysis." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 843–863.
      • May 2011
      • Article

      Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited

      By: Itai Ashlagi, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth and Michael A. Rees
      Since 2008 kidney exchange in America has grown in part from the incorporation of non-directed donors in transplant chains rather than simple exchanges. It is controversial whether these chains should be performed simultaneously ("domino paired donation," DPD) or... View Details
      Keywords: ABO Incompatibility; Allosensitization; Paired Kidney Exchange; Regional Sharing; Simulation Models; Transplantation Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Logistics; United States
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      Ashlagi, Itai, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth, and Michael A. Rees. "Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited." American Journal of Transplantation 11, no. 5 (May 2011): 984–994.
      • April 2011 (Revised March 2013)
      • Supplement

      BANEX and the No Pago Movement (B)

      By: Shawn Cole and Baily Blair Kempner
      This case examines Grassroots Capital's decision of whether or not to continue investing in a Bolivian microfinance bank that is suffering financial distress. View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Microfinance; Investment; Government and Politics; Crisis Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry; Bolivia
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      Cole, Shawn, and Baily Blair Kempner. "BANEX and the No Pago Movement (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 211-102, April 2011. (Revised March 2013.)
      • April 2011
      • Teaching Note

      U.S. Department of Energy & Recovery Act Funding: Bridging the "Valley of Death" (TN)

      By: Ramana Nanda, Joseph B. Lassiter III and Michael J. Roberts
      Teaching Note for 810144. View Details
      Keywords: Energy; Financing and Loans; Risk and Uncertainty; Commercialization; Programs; Innovation and Invention; Capital; Government and Politics; United States
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      Nanda, Ramana, Joseph B. Lassiter III, and Michael J. Roberts. U.S. Department of Energy & Recovery Act Funding: Bridging the "Valley of Death" (TN). Harvard Business School Teaching Note 811-083, April 2011.
      • March 2011 (Revised March 2011)
      • Case

      Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey - Managing in the Shadow of Health Care Reform

      By: Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Raffaella Sadun and Richard G. Hamermesh
      Per the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), which President Obama signed in 2010, states would be required to create state-wide health insurance marketplaces - the Health Benefit Exchanges (HBEs) - in which individuals and small employers could choose... View Details
      Keywords: Insurance; Health Care and Treatment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Health Industry; Insurance Industry; New Jersey
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      Oberholzer-Gee, Felix, Raffaella Sadun, and Richard G. Hamermesh. "Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey - Managing in the Shadow of Health Care Reform." Harvard Business School Case 711-403, March 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
      • March 2011
      • Case

      Grand Circle Travel: Where Risk Comes with the Territory

      By: Herman B. Leonard
      A worldwide travel company is intrinsically exposed to risks of natural and man-made disasters. How do you organize a business for success when it must on a nearly daily basis cope with hazards ranging from minor mishaps to large-scale catastrophes? Alan and Harriet... View Details
      Keywords: Crisis Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Transportation; Organizational Design; Decision Choices and Conditions; Organizational Structure; Mission and Purpose; Competitive Advantage; Travel Industry
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      Leonard, Herman B. "Grand Circle Travel: Where Risk Comes with the Territory." Harvard Business School Case 311-105, March 2011.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • February 2011
      • Teaching Note

      Citigroup's Exchange Offer (TN)

      By: Robin Greenwood
      Teaching Note for 210009. View Details
      Keywords: Equity; Government and Politics; Stocks; Price; Capital; Banks and Banking; Performance Evaluation; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital Markets; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Citigroup's Exchange Offer (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 211-087, February 2011.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Risky Trust: How Multi-entity Teams Develop Trust in a High Risk Endeavor

      By: Faaiza Rashid and Amy C. Edmondson
      This paper explicates the challenge of risky trust, which we define as trust that exists between parties vulnerable to high economic, legal, or reputational risks at individual or organizational levels. Drawing from analyses of data collected in a grounded case study... View Details
      Keywords: Interpersonal Communication; Leadership; Business Processes; Groups and Teams; Risk and Uncertainty; Trust; Construction Industry; United States
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      Rashid, Faaiza, and Amy C. Edmondson. "Risky Trust: How Multi-entity Teams Develop Trust in a High Risk Endeavor." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-089, February 2011.
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
      We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-065, January 2011. (Revised September 2012, Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      A Brief Postwar History of U.S. Consumer Finance

      By: Andrea Ryan, Gunnar Trumbull and Peter Tufano
      This article describes the consumer finance sector in the US since World War II. We first define the sector in terms of the functions delivered by firms (payments, savings/investing, borrowing, managing risk, and providing advice.) We provide time series evidence on... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Borrowing and Debt; Mortgages; Personal Finance; Business History; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry; United States
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      Ryan, Andrea, Gunnar Trumbull, and Peter Tufano. "A Brief Postwar History of U.S. Consumer Finance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-058, December 2010.
      • December 2010
      • Article

      Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
      Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Motivation and Incentives; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Framework; Problems and Challenges; Interest Rates; Cost; Developing Countries and Economies; Service Operations
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race." Journal of International Money and Finance 29, no. 8 (December 2010): 1706–1726. (Also Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 05-053 and NBER Working Paper No. 13131.)
      • November 2010 (Revised May 2014)
      • Case

      Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and David Lane
      This case analyzes Dow Chemical Company's proposed acquisition of Rohm and Haas in 2008. The $18.8 billion acquisition was part of Dow's strategic transformation from a slow-growth, low-margin, and cyclical producer of basic chemicals into a higher-growth,... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Financial Crisis; Capital Structure; Financial Condition; Financial Management; Contracts; Lawsuits and Litigation; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Chemical Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and David Lane. "Dow's Bid for Rohm and Haas." Harvard Business School Case 211-020, November 2010. (Revised May 2014.)
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

      By: Eric Van den Steen
      This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
      • November 2010
      • Article

      Stress-Test Your Strategy: The 7 Questions to Ask

      By: Robert Simons
      An economic downturn can quickly expose the shortcomings of your business strategy. But can you identify its weak points in good times as well? And can you focus on those weak points that really matter? I identify seven questions all executives should ask in order to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Strategy; Creativity; Success; Customers; Employees; Business and Shareholder Relations; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Simons, Robert. "Stress-Test Your Strategy: The 7 Questions to Ask." Harvard Business Review 88, no. 11 (November 2010): 93–100.
      • 2010
      • Working Paper

      Crashes and Collateralized Lending

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper develops a parsimonious static model for characterizing financing terms in collateralized lending markets. We characterize the systematic risk exposures for a variety of securities and develop a simple indifference-pricing framework to value the systematic... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Cost of Capital; Credit; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment; Framework; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "Crashes and Collateralized Lending." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-025, September 2010.
      • 1 Aug 2010
      • Conference Presentation

      Firm Performance, Top Management and Minority Hiring: African‐American Coaches in the NFL, 1970‐2007

      By: Andrew Hill and David Thomas
      Studies of minority hiring have found that low-status firms are more likely to hire minority candidates. However, most work has examined hiring for entry and mid-level positions, not senior management, which differs in the level of 1) uncertainty regarding the optimal... View Details
      Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Management Teams; Recruitment; Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Ethnicity; Sports Industry; Africa; United States
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      Hill, Andrew, and David Thomas. "Firm Performance, Top Management and Minority Hiring: African‐American Coaches in the NFL, 1970‐2007." Paper presented at the Academy of Management Annual Meeting, Montreal, QC, August 01, 2010.
      • July 2010 (Revised March 2015)
      • Teaching Note

      1366 Technologies

      By: Ramana Nanda and Joseph B. Lassiter III
      Teaching Note for 810005. View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Production; Supply and Industry; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Manufacturing Industry
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      Nanda, Ramana, and Joseph B. Lassiter III. "1366 Technologies." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 811-003, July 2010. (Revised March 2015.)
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