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17 Dec 2020
Research & Ideas

The 10 Most Popular Stories of 2020

about the most interesting business trends of the year, and your predictions for 2021. Top 10 most popular stories Merck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talk Ken Frazier, one of only four... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

2025
Working Paper

Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers

By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong

Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions

05 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

What really fuels a boom-and-bust cycle in the modern global economy? It’s not always household debt, says a new paper that parses in-depth data across 115 countries. Instead, rising corporate debt may flash the clearest warning that a fiscal crisis is on the horizon.... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

2019
Article

Does Big Data Enhance Firm Innovation Competency? The Mediating Role of Data-driven Insights

By: Maryam Ghasemaghaei and Goran Calic

Grounded in gestalt insight learning theory and organizational learning theory, we collected data from 280 middle and top-level managers to investigate the impact of each big data characteristic (i.e., data volume, data velocity, data variety, and data veracity) on... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Innovation and Invention; Learning

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2009
Working Paper

Stock Price Fragility

By: Robin Greenwood and David Thesmar

We investigate the relationship between ownership structure of financial assets and non-fundamental risk. An asset is fragile if its owners collectively have to buy or sell. Such assets are susceptible to non-fundamental price movements. An asset can be fragile because... View Details

Keywords: Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Price; Market Transactions; Ownership; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

2023
Working Paper

New Facts and Data about Professors and Their Research

By: Kyle Myers, Wei Yang Tham, Jerry Thursby, Marie Thursby, Nina Cohodes, Karim R. Lakhani, Rachel Mural and Yilun Xu

We introduce a new survey of professors at roughly 150 of the most research-intensive institutions of higher education in the US. We document seven new features of how research-active professors are compensated, how they spend their time, and how they perceive their... View Details

Keywords: Research; Higher Education; Compensation and Benefits; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Performance Productivity

2019
Working Paper

Soul and Machine (Learning)

By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan

Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning

January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

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08 Dec 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Decoding Inside Information

Keywords: by Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy & Lukasz Pomorski; Financial Services

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

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February 2013
Case

Recorded Future: Analyzing Internet Ideas About What Comes Next

Recorded Future is a "big data" startup company that uses Internet data to make predictions about events, people, and entities. The company primarily serves government intelligence agencies, but has some private sector clients and is considering taking on more. The... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Analytics; Internet; Analytics and Data Science; Internet and the Web; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Information Technology Industry

07 Apr 2003
Research & Ideas

Three Steps for Crisis Prevention

to actually mobilizing the resources required to stop it. We term this the "RPM process": recognition, prioritization, mobilization. Failure at any of these three stages will leave a company vulnerable to potentially devastating View Details

Keywords: by Michael D. Watkins & Max H. Bazerman

December 2019
Case

Forecasting ClimaCell

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett

A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details

Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy

January–February 2023
Article

Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions

By: Michael Lingzhi Li, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Omar Skali Lami, Thomas Trikalinos, Nikolaos Trichakis and Dimitris Bertsimas

We developed DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model for predicting detected cases and deaths in the prevaccination era of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model allows for underdetection of infections and effects of government interventions. We have applied DELPHI across more... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Epidemics; Analytics and Data Science; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

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2017
Working Paper

Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing

By: Samuel Antill

I develop a dynamic model of investment timing in which firms must first choose when to search for external financing. Search is costly and the arrival of investors is uncertain, leading to delay in financing and investment. Depending on parameters, my model can... View Details

Keywords: Real Options; Search And Bargaining; Time-varying Financial Conditions; Investment; Venture Capital; Mathematical Methods

June 2016
Article

Corporate Governance and Executive Compensation for Corporate Social Responsibility

By: Bryan Hong, Zhichuan (Frank) Li and Dylan B. Minor

We link the corporate governance literature in financial economics to the agency cost perspective of corporate social responsibility (CSR) to derive theoretical predictions about the relationship between corporate governance and the existence of executive compensation... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility; Incentives For CSR; Non-financial Performance Measures; Agency Costs; Board Independence; Institutional Holdings; Managerial Power; Motivation and Incentives; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Executive Compensation; Corporate Governance

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Article

Measuring Audit Quality

By: Shivaram Rajgopal, Suraj Srinivasan and Xin Zheng

In this paper, we document 45 specific allegations related to audit deficiencies based on GAAS, as detailed in 141 AAERs and 153 securities class action lawsuits over the violation years 1978–2016. Next, we use these allegations to validate existing popular proxies of... View Details

Keywords: Audit Quality; Audit Deficiency; AAER; Securities Class Action Lawsuits; Enforcement; Accounting Audits; Quality; Measurement and Metrics

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December 2015
Article

What Is Disruptive Innovation?

By: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Raynor and Rory McDonald

For the past 20 years, the theory of disruptive innovation has been enormously influential in business circles and a powerful tool for predicting which industry entrants will succeed. Unfortunately, the theory has also been widely misunderstood, and the "disruptive"... View Details

Keywords: Disruptive Innovation; Theory

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12 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 12, 2006

Working PapersDo Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance? Authors:Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel Abstract Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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