Treatment Effect Estimation - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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April 1996 (Revised January 2006)
Case

Times Mirror Company PEPS Proposal Review

By: Peter Tufano

Times Mirror Co. (TMC) owns a substantial block of Netscape common stock purchased prior to Netscape's IPO, on which it has substantial unrealized gains. TMC is restricted from selling the stock in a public offering and is therefore considering a proposal by Morgan... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Stocks; Taxation; Corporate Finance; Telecommunications Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States

2025
Working Paper

Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti

This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details

Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets

November 2024
Article

Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano

This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details

Keywords: Econometrics; Casual Inference; Marketing; Economics; Advertising; Mathematical Methods

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2011
Working Paper

The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments

By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta

Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods

2020
Working Paper

Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we... View Details

Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result

2021
Working Paper

Proxy Advisory Firms and Corporate Shareholder Engagement

By: Aiyesha Dey, Joshua White and Austin Starkweather

We examine the influence of proxy advisors on firms’ shareholder engagement behavior. Our analyses exploit a quasi-natural experiment using Say-On-Pay voting outcomes near a threshold that triggers a review of engagement activities by Institutional Shareholder Services... View Details

Keywords: Proxy Advisors; ISS; Shareholder Engagement; Disclosure; Business and Shareholder Relations; Executive Compensation; Corporate Disclosure

Article

Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments

By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic

Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details

Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics

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May 2020
Article

Negotiating a Better Future: How Interpersonal Skills Facilitate Inter-Generational Investment

By: Nava Ashraf, Natalie Bau, Corinne Low and Kathleen McGinn

Using a randomized control trial, we examine whether offering adolescent girls nonmaterial resources—specifically, negotiation skills—can improve educational outcomes in a low-income country. In so doing, we provide the first evidence on the effects of an intervention... View Details

Keywords: Negotiation; Competency and Skills; Training; Age; Gender; Education; Investment; Outcome or Result; Developing Countries and Economies

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December 2014
Article

No Margin, No Mission? A Field Experiment on Incentives for Public Services Delivery

By: Nava Ashraf, Oriana Bandiera and B. Kelsey Jack

A substantial body of research investigates the effect of pay for performance in firms, yet less is known about the effect of non-financial rewards, especially in organizations that hire individuals to perform tasks with positive social spillovers. We conduct a field... View Details

Keywords: Incentives; Non-monetary Rewards; Intrinsic Motivation; Motivation and Incentives; Employees; Service Industry; Health Industry

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2017
Working Paper

The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer

By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani

We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details

Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry

January 2017
Case

The Six CEOs of Tyco International Ltd.

By: John R. Wells and Gabriel Ellsworth

In September 2016, Johnson Controls, Inc. completed the acquisition of Tyco International PLC, a $9.9 billion business with operating profits of $884 million. The purchase consideration was $14.4 billion. Although the deal was billed as a merger, Ireland-based Tyco... View Details

Keywords: Tyco; Dennis Kozlowski; Edward Breen; Fire Safety; Fire Protection; Security; Packaging; Securities And Exchange Commission; Fraud; Accounting; Accounting Audits; Earnings Management; Financial Statements; Goodwill Accounting; Acquisition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Conglomerates; Business Divisions; Business Exit or Shutdown; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Headquarters; Business Model; Business Organization; For-Profit Firms; Restructuring; Crime and Corruption; Engineering; Applied Optics; Chemicals; Construction; Metals and Minerals; Ethics; Finance; Cash Flow; Public Equity; Stock Options; Financing and Loans; Initial Public Offering; Profit; Revenue; Geographic Location; Geographic Scope; Global Range; Globalized Firms and Management; Multinational Firms and Management; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Health Care and Treatment; Business History; Executive Compensation; Selection and Staffing; Courts and Trials; Lawfulness; Lawsuits and Litigation; Business or Company Management; Goals and Objectives; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Public Ownership; Problems and Challenges; Strategy; Business Strategy; Competition; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Consolidation; Corporate Strategy; Diversification; Expansion; Horizontal Integration; Value; Chemical Industry; Construction Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry; Energy Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Mining Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; Semiconductor Industry; Telecommunications Industry; Utilities Industry; Republic of Ireland; Switzerland; Bermuda; United States; New Hampshire

March 2011
Case

Valuation of AirThread Connections

By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin

This case can be used as a capstone valuation exercise for first-year MBA students in an introductory finance course. A senior associate in the business development group at American Cable Communications, one of the largest cable companies in the U.S., must prepare a... View Details

Keywords: Communication; Present Value; Tax Accounting; Capital Costs; Synergy; Telephony; Wireless Technologies; Communication Technology; Assets; Cost of Capital; Valuation; Cash Flow; Capital Structure; Accounting; Wireless Technology; Communications Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry

January 2021
Article

Commuting and Innovation: Are Closer Inventors More Productive?

By: Hongyu Xiao, Andy Wu and Jaeho Kim

We estimate the causal effect of workplace–home commuting distance on inventor productivity. We construct a novel panel of U.S. inventors with precisely measured workplace–home distances and inventor-level productivity. Our identification strategy exploits firm office... View Details

Keywords: Commuting; Proximity; Inventors; Innovation; Relocation; Telecommuting; Geographic Location; Technological Innovation; Innovation and Management; Innovation Strategy; United States

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2023
Working Paper

The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities

By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko

We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in... View Details

Keywords: Racial Disparity; Paycheck Protection Program; Measurement Error; AI and Machine Learning; Race; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Forecasting and Prediction; Outcome or Result

2019
Chapter

The Consequences of Mandatory Corporate Sustainability Reporting

By: Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim

A key aspect of the governance process inside organizations and markets is the measurement and disclosure of important metrics and information. In this chapter, we examine the effect of sustainability disclosure regulations on firms’ disclosure practices and... View Details

March 2017
Article

Institutional Ownership and Corporate Tax Avoidance: New Evidence

By: Mozaffar N. Khan, Suraj Srinivasan and Liang Tan

We provide new evidence on the agency theory of corporate tax avoidance (Slemrod, 2004; Crocker and Slemrod, 2005; Chen and Chu, 2005) by showing that increases in institutional ownership are associated with increases in tax avoidance. Using the Russell index... View Details

Keywords: Tax Avoidance; Agency Costs; Institutional Ownership; Private Ownership; Crime and Corruption; Taxation; Agency Theory

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April 2018
Article

The Power of Voice in Stimulating Morality: Eliciting Taxpayer Preferences Increases Tax Compliance

By: Cait Lamberton, Jan-Emmanuel De Neve and Michael I. Norton

Decisions about paying taxes represent one of the most common moral quandaries faced by citizens. In the present research, we argue that taxpayer compliance can be raised by increasing “voice”: allowing taxpayers to express non-binding preferences about the way their... View Details

Keywords: Morality; Public Policy; Ethics; Moral Sensibility; Taxation; Policy; Attitudes; Governance Compliance

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June 2008
Article

'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?

By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith

We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details

Keywords: Experimental Economics; Asset Markets; Bubbles; Price Bubble; Financial Markets

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July 2016
Article

Economic Implications of the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology Embryo Transfer Guidelines: Healthcare Dollars Saved by Reducing Iatrogenic Triplets

By: Malinda S. Lee, Brady T. Evans, Ariel Dora Stern and Mark D. Hornstein

Objective: To estimate the national cost savings resulting from reductions in higher-order multiple (HOM) live births (defined as three or more fetuses), following the initial publication of the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) guidelines on ET in... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Cost Management; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry

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June 2019
Article

Brokers vs. Retail Investors: Conflicting Interests and Dominated Products

I study how brokers distort household investment decisions. Using a novel convertible bond dataset, I find that consumers often purchase dominated bonds—cheap and expensive versions of otherwise identical bonds coexist in the market. The empirical evidence suggests... View Details

Keywords: Brokers; Fiduciary Standard; Consumer Finance; Structured Products; Household; Investment; Decisions; Motivation and Incentives; Conflict of Interests

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