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- All HBS Web (1,029)
- Faculty Publications (349)
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- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity
By: Gordon Y Liao
I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details
Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit
Liao, Gordon Y. "Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity." Working Paper, October 2016.
- January–February 2023
- Article
Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
- Forthcoming
- Chapter
Intermediation and Diffusion of Responsibility in Negotiation: A Case of Bounded Ethicality
By: Neeru Paharia, Lucas Clayton Coffman and Max Bazerman
This article compares direct deception with deception via an intermediary in the bargaining context. It describes a growing experimental literature that suggests how perceived ethics surrounding transactions with multiple partners can encourage misbehavior. It is noted... View Details
Paharia, Neeru, Lucas Clayton Coffman, and Max Bazerman. "Intermediation and Diffusion of Responsibility in Negotiation: A Case of Bounded Ethicality." In The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution, edited by Gary E. Bolton and Rachel T.A. Croson, 37–46. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012.
- 19 Oct 2021
- Research & Ideas
Fed Up Workers and Supply Woes: What's Next for Dollar Stores?
predictable schedules or offer bonuses in order to attract and retain employees. Dollar stores typically pay among the worst in retail, close to the minimum wage, and maintain very low staffing levels. A recent New York Times story... View Details
- 2012
- Working Paper
Unobserved State Fragility and the Political Transfer Problem
By: Faisal Z. Ahmed and Eric Werker
Autocrats experiencing a windfall in unearned income may find it optimal to donate to other countries some of the windfall in order to make the state a less attractive prize to potential insurgents. We put forward a model that makes that prediction, as well as the... View Details
Ahmed, Faisal Z., and Eric Werker. "Unobserved State Fragility and the Political Transfer Problem." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-009, July 2012.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Salience
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details
Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
- Research Summary
Mobile web advertising: maximum entropy banner allocation
The worldwide mobile advertising market, currently $3 billion in size, is expected to grow to $20 billion by 2011. Online and mobile advertising employs two main pricing models: pay-per-click (CPC) and pay-per-impression (CPM). To date, most of the... View Details
- August 2017
- Article
Tort Reform and Innovation
By: Alberto Galasso and Hong Luo
Current academic and policy debates focus on the impact of tort reforms on physicians’ behavior and medical costs. This paper examines whether these reforms also affect incentives to develop new technologies. We develop a theoretical model that predicts that the impact... View Details
Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Care and Treatment; Technological Innovation; Legal Liability; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry
Galasso, Alberto, and Hong Luo. "Tort Reform and Innovation." Journal of Law & Economics 60, no. 3 (August 2017): 385–412.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Complexity of Economic Decisions
By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity... View Details
Gabaix, Xavier, and Thomas Graeber. "The Complexity of Economic Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-049, February 2024.
- April 2018
- Article
Compromised Ethics in Hiring Processes? How Referrers' Power Affects Employees' Reactions to Referral Practices
By: Rellie Derfler-Rozin, Bradford Baker and F. Gino
In this paper, we explore referral-based hiring practices and show how a referrer’s power (relative to the hiring manager) influences other organizational members’ support (or lack thereof) for who is hired through perceptions of the hiring manager’s motives and... View Details
Derfler-Rozin, Rellie, Bradford Baker, and F. Gino. "Compromised Ethics in Hiring Processes? How Referrers' Power Affects Employees' Reactions to Referral Practices." Academy of Management Journal 61, no. 2 (April 2018): 615–636.
- January 2025
- Technical Note
AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix
By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart
This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details
Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance
Neeley, Tsedal, and Tim Englehart. "AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix." Harvard Business School Technical Note 425-049, January 2025.
- 25 Apr 2007
- Research & Ideas
Feeling Stuck? Getting Past Impasse
significant ways in a relatively short time. I think that every business professional and executive has a model of "what's next." If you asked most executives what's going to happen over the next 12 or even 18 months, what they... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
- 2020
- Working Paper
Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach
By: Eva Ascarza
The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details
Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Retail Industry
Padilla, Nicolas, and Eva Ascarza. "Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-091, February 2019. (Revised May 2020. Accepted at the Journal of Marketing Research.)
- April 2023
- Article
On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Seth Neel
As predictive models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions, there is a growing emphasis on developing techniques that can provide algorithmic recourse to affected individuals. While such recourses can be immensely beneficial to affected... View Details
Pawelczyk, Martin, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Seth Neel. "On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 206 (April 2023).
- Other Article
Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities
By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant and Lee Doolan
Employing software metrics, such as size and complexity, for predicting defects has been given a lot of attention over the years and proven very useful. However, the few studies looking at software architecture and vulnerabilities are limited in scope and findings. We... View Details
Keywords: Security Vulnerabilities; Software Architecture; Metrics; Software; Complexity; Measurement and Metrics
Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Daniel J. Sturtevant, and Lee Doolan. "Exploring the Relationship Between Architecture Coupling and Software Vulnerabilities." Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering Secure Software and Systems (ESSoS) 9th (2017): 53–69. (Part of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, ISSN 0302-9743.)
- 15 Jul 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries
- July 2019
- Case
Autonomous Vehicles: Smooth or Bumpy Ride Ahead?
By: Elie Ofek and Akhil Waghmare
In early 2019, transportation was set to undergo a major transformation with the advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs), also referred to as driverless cars, which were nearing completion from an R&D and testing phase. Yet many questions remained open regarding exactly... View Details
Keywords: Transportation; Technological Innovation; Disruptive Innovation; Transformation; Technology Adoption; Business Model; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Transportation Industry; Auto Industry
Ofek, Elie, and Akhil Waghmare. "Autonomous Vehicles: Smooth or Bumpy Ride Ahead?" Harvard Business School Case 520-008, July 2019.
- 03 Nov 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
Pricing and Efficiency in the Market for IP Addresses
- May–June 2025
- Article
Slowly Varying Regression Under Sparsity
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Michael Lingzhi Li and Omar Skali Lami
We consider the problem of parameter estimation in slowly varying regression models with sparsity constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer optimization problem and demonstrate that it can be reformulated exactly as a binary convex optimization problem... View Details
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Omar Skali Lami. "Slowly Varying Regression Under Sparsity." Operations Research 73, no. 3 (May–June 2025): 1581–1597.
- 14 Jan 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Optimal Auction Design and Equilibrium Selection in Sponsored Search Auctions
Keywords: by Benjamin G. Edelman & Michael Schwarz