Publications

30 May 2023
Research & Ideas

Can AI Predict Whether Shoppers Would Pick Crest or Colgate?

data.” The researchers also found that telling GPT that it had purchased a product before, such as yogurt, and how much of the product the “customer” already had at home, affected purchasing decisions in View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz

Summer 2021
Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim

We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy

2014
Working Paper

Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks

2018
Working Paper

Moral Prospection: Cognitive Bias and the Failure to Predict Moral Backlash Toward an Organization

By: J. Lees

March 2003
Article

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming

By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman

2023
Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov

Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science

SSRN

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

2006
Working Paper

Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games

By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron

June 2023
Case

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber

The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Standards; Accrual Accounting; Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry; United States

Educators

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

fall 2004
Article

Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins

Keywords: Negotiation; Books

March 2020
Supplement

People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley

This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, situated one year after the A case, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to apply his team's predictive models generated from the previous year’s data. View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Human Resource Management; Data; Workforce; Hiring; Talent Management; Forecasting; Predictive Analytics; Organizational Behavior; Recruiting; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management

Article

Modeling dependencies between rating categories and their effects on prediction in a credit risk portfolio

June 2015
Case

The Valuation and Financing of Lady M Confections

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This case explores the decision-making process that small, private businesses must undertake when considering an expansion and when selling equity to outside investors. In the process, students are asked to complete two exercises: a break-even analysis and a valuation... View Details

Keywords: Lady M; Bakery; Foodservice Industry; Breakeven Analysis; Restaurant Industry; Forecasting; Forecast; Financial Analysis; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Equity; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Finance; Food; Valuation; Food and Beverage Industry; New York (city, NY)

Educators

April 2024
Article

A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson

Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details

Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry

October 2023
Teaching Note

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-042. View Details

31 May 2023
Research & Ideas

With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

used that information to predict how often and when a customer may request a car as part of their routine. The model could drill into specific kinds of routines, too: The model identifies seven clusters of... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

December 2023
Supplement

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang