Publications

October 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the PowerPoint supplement to the teaching note: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B), number 215-022. View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

Article

End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis

By: Joseph B. Fuller

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Analysis

09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

predictive and prescriptive analytics can be combined to develop a tactical decision-making tool that makes a big impact on the bottom line. For details about the research and... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

Article

Attention Prediction on Social Media Brand Pages

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jitendra Ajmera

19 Apr 2021
News

Toilet Paper Surplus, Ketchup And Semiconductor Chip Shortages – Supply Chain Forecasting Is Hard

2006
Working Paper

Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning

To date, little research has been done on managing the organizational and political dimensions of generating and improving forecasts in corporate settings. We examine the implementation of a supply chain planning process at a consumer electronics company, concentrating... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Business or Company Management; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Planning; Electronics Industry

August 2006
Article

Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?

By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler

Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return

July 1981
Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets

2021
Working Paper

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu

We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details

Keywords: Experience; Interdependency; Strategic Foresight; Crowdfunding; Timeline; Delay; Forecasting; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Planning

2011
Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth

Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness

30 Aug 2012
News

Three Tips for Leaders About to Miss Their Forecasts

December 2023
Article

Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting

By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt

In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details

Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction

June 2023
Article

When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making

Article

The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky

Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction

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2018
Working Paper

Us and Them: Predicting Firm Stock Performance via Social Media Sentiment about Competitors

By: Frank Nagle

Article

Predicting Soccer Matches after Unconscious and Conscious Thought as a Function of Expertise

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking