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- All HBS Web
(1,291)
- News (115)
- Research (1,047)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (800)
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- April 2008
- Tutorial
Finance: An Introductory Online Course
By: Timothy A. Luehrman, Brenda W. Chia and Michelle Rendall
The Finance Online Course provides a fundamental understanding of the principles, analytical tools, and knowledge needed to make good investment and financing decisions. The course introduces students to finance ratios, forecasting methods, capital structure theory,... View Details
- Research Summary
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting.
Forecasting firm-level sales is a key activity in top-down planning in most organizations. In the retailing industry, firms can use inventory and price to stimulate demand. Hence, standard time series methods for sales forecasting can be improved by incorporating... View Details
- January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
- Case
Advanced Technologies, Inc.
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Advanced Technologies, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 299-042, January 1999. (Revised June 2006.)
- 12 Jul 2016
- First Look
July 12, 2016
Calibrating the model to data from the Financial Accounts of the U.S., the optimal capital requirement is around 20%. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51305 Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- Research Summary
Dawn Matsumoto's research investigates managers' financial reporting decisions including the incentives driving these decisions and the impact of these decisions on capital market participants. She is interested in the role of financial intermediaries (such as... View Details
- September 2002
- Case
Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand
By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg
Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details
Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry
Bowen, H. Kent, and Jonathan P Groberg. "Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand." Harvard Business School Case 603-058, September 2002.
- March 1997
- Background Note
Copper and Zinc Markets 1996
By: Peter Tufano
Provides background information on copper and zinc markets as of mid-1996. Discusses supply and demand conditions, forecasts of the spot prices of the metals, and contracts for future delivery (forwards, futures, and options). View Details
Tufano, Peter, and Alberto Moel. "Copper and Zinc Markets 1996." Harvard Business School Background Note 297-055, March 1997.
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually... View Details
Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- 2007
- Working Paper
Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
- February 1982 (Revised August 1985)
- Case
U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)
Set in mid-1978, this case covers all aspects of the U.S. retail coffee market both cross-sectionally and historically. The market is recovering from dramatic price rises and volume drops. The overall issue is the forecast of future market evolution and the... View Details
Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Industry Growth; Market Timing; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
Yip, George S., and Jeffrey R Williams. "U.S. Retail Coffee Market (A)." Harvard Business School Case 582-087, February 1982. (Revised August 1985.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details
Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
- November 2020
- Case
Axis My India
By: Ananth Raman, Ann Winslow and Kairavi Dey
Pradeep Gupta founded Axis My India (AMI) as a printing and publishing company in 1998. In 2013, AMI expanded into consumer research and election forecasting. Although a relatively unknown entity, AMI predicted several election results accurately. Gupta describes AMI’s... View Details
Keywords: Market Research; Operations; Management; Infrastructure; Logistics; Service Operations; Political Elections; Forecasting and Prediction; Asia; India
Raman, Ananth, Ann Winslow, and Kairavi Dey. "Axis My India." Harvard Business School Case 621-075, November 2020.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Asset Management; Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction; Competency and Skills
Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10685, February 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Holding Period Returns; Fundamental Valuation; Present Value; Valuation; Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- June 2023 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Optimalen Capital
A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details
Keywords: Investments; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Investment Portfolio; Asset Pricing; Stocks
Baker, Malcolm, Elisabeth Kempf, and Jonathan Wallen. "Optimalen Capital." Harvard Business School Case 223-099, June 2023. (Revised April 2025.)
- 09 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
- January – March 2012
- Article
Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Luis M. Viceira
This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
- October 1960 (Revised December 1982)
- Case
Texas Instruments, Inc. (B)
Discusses the reorganization of Texas Instruments Metals & Controls Division, the formulation of the profit plan, and the courses of action available to the manager in the face of his department's failure to meet forecasted sales and profits. View Details
Keywords: Restructuring
Wrapp, Henry E., and L. A. Guthart. "Texas Instruments, Inc. (B)." Harvard Business School Case 306-066, October 1960. (Revised December 1982.)
- January 1992 (Revised March 1993)
- Case
Maison Bouygues
By: John A. Quelch
The vice president of marketing is reviewing the 1991 marketing plan and budget for Maison Bouygues, the leading builder of new single family homes in France. Due to recession, the company's sales are forecast to be flat and adjustments may need to be made in the... View Details
Keywords: Housing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Brands and Branding; Construction Industry; France
Quelch, John A. "Maison Bouygues." Harvard Business School Case 592-059, January 1992. (Revised March 1993.)
- Article
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward... View Details
Keywords: National Security; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; History
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).