Publications

2007
Working Paper

The Seer of Wellesley Hills: Roger Babson and the Babson Statistical Organization

By: Walter A. Friedman

Roger Babson was a pioneer of the business-forecasting industry in the United States in the early twentieth century. He built the largest private economic forecasting agency in the period and published a great range of economic statistics in his weekly newsletters. As... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business History; Newsletters; Personal Development and Career; United States

October 2018
Article

The Operational Value of Social Media Information

By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang

While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media

July – August 2011
Article

What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria and George Serafeim

A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details

Keywords: Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Industry Growth; Judgments; Performance; Valuation; Price; Quality; Innovation and Invention; Organizational Culture; Competency and Skills; Surveys

November 2024
Article

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2005 (Revised March 2007)
Case

Leitax (A)

By: Noel H. Watson, Rogelio Oliva and Laura Winig

Leitax, a young digital camera manufacturer selling its cameras mainly through retailers, experienced poor matching of inventory availability with demand for new and existing products in 2002. Describes the implementation and details of a consensus forecasting... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Supply Chain Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Retail Industry

July 1987 (Revised October 2009)
Background Note

A Method For Valuing High-Risk, Long-Term Investments: The "Venture Capital Method"

By: William A. Sahlman and Daniel R Scherlis

Describes a method for valuing high-risk, long-term investments such as those confronting venture capitalists. The method entails forecasting a future value (e.g., five years from the present) and discounting that terminal value back to the present by applying a high... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Risk Management; Valuation

May 1993
Case

Kaufmann Manufacturing Company (A)

By: Julie H. Hertenstein and William J. Bruns Jr.

A management team at Kaufmann is studying the latest year's operations and sales, which seem to have led to very confusing financial results. Sales exceeded forecast and production for the first six months, however Kaufmann reported a loss. Yet, when sales were below... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Earnings Management; Cost Accounting; Financial Reporting; Cost vs Benefits; Capital Budgeting; Cost Management; Profit; Outcome or Result

2010
Working Paper

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga

We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research

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07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

Pundits love a political horse race, parsing the latest polls to predict who might win an election. And in the final runup to the US presidential contest, these forecasts can influence markets and shape public opinion and policies. But as... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

01 Oct 2020
Video

Building a Just and Climate-Ready Economy in a Post-COVID World

29 Sep 2020

Building a Just and Climate-Ready Economy in a Post-COVID World

March 2015
Article

Inside the “Black Box” of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

By: Lawrence D. Brown, Andrew C. Call, Michael B. Clement and Nathan Y. Sharp

Our objective is to penetrate the “black box” of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the... View Details

Keywords: Knowledge Use and Leverage; Investment; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Services Industry

Video

Edwin Land in a new factory space. Produced for Polaroid, Dr. land Stockholders Meeting, 1969-1970

2012
Working Paper

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson

We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details

Keywords: Price; Credit; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Bonds; Market Design; Cost of Capital; Mathematical Methods; System Shocks

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October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
Background Note

Calculating Free Cash Flows

By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein

Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Mathematical Methods

Article

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl

We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details

Keywords: Trimmed Opinion Pools; Forecasting and Prediction