Decision-making In Financial Markets - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Airlines Industry

By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the airlines industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of fare... View Details

2020
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Consumer Finance Industry

By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor credit card providers within the consumer finance industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates... View Details

2020
Working Paper

Determinants of Early-Stage Startup Performance: Survey Results

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

To explore determinants of new venture performance, the CEOs of 470 early-stage startups were surveyed regarding a broad range of factors related to their venture’s customer value proposition, product management, marketing, technology and operations, financial... View Details

Keywords: Startups; Survey Research; Performance Analysis; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Analysis; Business Startups; Failure; Surveys

Article

Nudging: Progress to Date and Future Directions

By: John Beshears and Harry Kosowsky

Nudges influence behavior by changing the environment in which decisions are made, without restricting the menu of options and without altering financial incentives. This paper assesses past empirical research on nudging and provides recommendations for future work in... View Details

Keywords: Nudge; Choice Architecture; Behavioral Economics; Behavioral Science; Behavior; Change; Situation or Environment; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decision Making

October 2020
Case

TowerBrook: ESG in Action (A)

By: Victoria Ivashina, Brian Trelstad and Meaghan Conway

This case is the first of a two-part series that follows Ramez Sousou and his team at TowerBrook Capital Partners as they face a challenging investment decision in February of 2013. Since its founding, TowerBrook has prided itself on its purpose-driven investing... View Details

Keywords: ESG; Finance; Private Equity; Corporate Governance; Value Creation; Investment; Decision Making

October 2020 (Revised December 2020)
Case

AfricInvest: A Pan-African Investment Platform

By: Victoria Ivashina and Youssef Abdel Aal

The case is set in December 2018, when Ziad Oueslati, co-managing director and co-founder of AfricInvest, a leading pan-African private equity firm headquartered in Tunisia, was reflecting on the future direction of his firm. AfricInvest started as a traditional small... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Private Equity; Venture Capital; Strategy; Governance; Financial Services Industry; Tunisia; Africa; Middle East

October 2020 (Revised July 2023)
Case

UCK Partners: Gong Cha

By: Victoria Ivashina and Sangyun Lee

In the Spring of 2017, Soomin Kim, Founding Partner of UCK Partners, and his team were debating the potential exit of UCK Partner’s investment in Gong Cha Korea, the sole local franchisor of the premium milk tea brand that they proprietarily sourced three years ago.... View Details

Keywords: Exit; Strategic Decision Making; Private Equity; Investment; Strategy; Investment Return; Decision Making; Bids and Bidding

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Consumer-Packaged Foods Industry

By: Amanda Rischbieth, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the consumer-packaged goods industry. We design a methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates on customer... View Details

2022
Working Paper

The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen

We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details

Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation

Oct 2020
Conference Presentation

Optimal, Truthful, and Private Securities Lending

By: Emily Diana, Michael J. Kearns, Seth Neel and Aaron Leon Roth

We consider a fundamental dynamic allocation problem motivated by the problem of securities lending in financial markets, the mechanism underlying the short selling of stocks. A lender would like to distribute a finite number of identical copies of some scarce resource... View Details

Keywords: Differential Privacy; Mechanism Design; Finance; Mathematical Methods

September 2020 (Revised December 2021)
Case

Building India's 2.0: PayNearby

By: Lauren Cohen and Spencer C. N. Hagist

Headquartered in Mumbai, India, FinTech startup Nearby Technologies has seen its flagship brand, PayNearby, rapidly flourish across most of its target market within just four years. The unprecedented success of its payment app, which allows users to access banking... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Developing Markets; Payments; Financial Inclusion; Finance; Entrepreneurship; Emerging Markets; Competitive Strategy; Banking Industry; India

September 2020 (Revised November 2020)
Case

d.light

By: Michael Chu, Krishna G. Palepu and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha

Kenyan off-grid-solar pioneer d.light can power entire homes in rural Africa but must now decide how to fund the growth of its asset-heavy business model. Ned Tozun and Sam Goldman founded d.light in 2006 to transform lives through solar solutions enabling access to... View Details

Keywords: Alternative Energy; Business Model; Capital; Emerging Markets; Expansion; Financial Strategy; Renewable Energy; Strategy; Social Entrepreneurship; Energy Industry; Africa; Kenya; India

2024
Working Paper

Long-Run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging Markets

By: Shawn Cole, Martin Melecky, Florian Mölders and Tristan Reed

We provide the first evidence on the long-run returns to private equity in emerging and frontier markets using the cash flows from every equity investment made by the International Finance Corporation across 130 countries over 58 years. Risk-adjusted returns are... View Details

Keywords: Impact Investing; Investment; Emerging Markets; Developing Countries and Economies; Investment Return

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August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
Case

Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States

By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Larrain, Carlos Vilches and Sarah Jeong

On May 26, 2020, Latam Airlines became the largest airline in the world to be driven to bankruptcy by COVID-19. With a complex debt structure and international investor composition, the company decided to file for bankruptcy protection in the United States, which... View Details

Keywords: Airlines; Pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Air Transportation; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Capital Markets; Strategy; Latin America; Chile; United States

2020
Working Paper

Consumers Punish Firms That Cut Employee Pay in Response to COVID-19

By: Bhavya Mohan, Serena Hagerty and Michael Norton

Two experiments, including one incentive compatible study, examine the impact of cutting pay for executives versus employees in response to COVID-19 on consumer behavior. Study 1 explores the effect of announcing cuts or no cuts to CEO and employee pay, and shows that... View Details

Keywords: Employee Furloughs; CEO Pay Cuts; Pay Ratios; Purchase Intention; Health Pandemics; Employees; Wages; Executive Compensation; Consumer Behavior

August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
Case

Satrix: Competing in the Passive Asset Management Industry in South Africa

By: Mark Egan, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha

In late 2017, Satrix, one of the largest passive asset management firms in South Africa and a pioneer in the industry since 2000, had to decide its strategy going forward in a market where passive asset management had become increasingly commoditized and... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Competition; Competitive Strategy; Financial Services Industry; South Africa; Africa

August 2020 (Revised February 2021)
Case

Luckin Coffee (A): Caffeine-fueled Growth?

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Karen Elterman

This case describes the founding of Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee in 2017 and its path to surpassing Starbucks as the largest coffee chain in China (by number of stores) in 2019. Unlike Starbucks stores, which were designed to be welcoming “third places” for... View Details

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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July 2020
Case

Mortgage Backed Securities and the Covid-19 Pandemic

By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira and Dean Xu

In April 2020, global financial markets were still reeling as the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly across the world. Global equity markets had initially fallen by 30% in response to the pandemic, and high-yield credit markets had dropped by nearly 20%. In contrast,... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Mortgage-backed Securities; Health Pandemics; Financial Markets; Assets; Resource Allocation; Financial Instruments; Decision Making

July 2020
Case

Amanda and Kristen: Mented Cosmetics

By: Steven Rogers, Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Alterrell Mills

The co-founders (Black HBS alumnae) of an e-commerce beauty startup explore the unmet needs within the beauty industry. This case study examines the entrepreneurial opportunities that come from identifying an underserved market, specifically within the Black community... View Details

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