Decision Choice And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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July 2022 (Revised October 2024)
Case

3G Capital

By: Jo Tango and Alys Ferragamo

In June 2022, 3G Capital Co-Managing Partners Alex Behring and Daniel Schwartz were in a partners’ meeting. On the agenda were three potential investments. Code named “Alpha,” “Bravo,” and “Charlie” (real target companies that have been disguised), they were the... View Details

Keywords: Investment Decisions; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Private Equity; Leveraged Buyouts

October 1994
Article

When Worlds Collide: The Implications of Panel Data-Based Choice Models for Consumer Behavior

By: R. S. Winer, R.E. Bucklin, J. A. Deighton, J. Erdem, P.S. Fader, J.J. Inman, H. Katahira, Katherine N. Lemon and A. Mitchell

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions

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2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

2006
Article

Empowerment through Choice? A Critical Analysis of the Effects of Choice in Organizations

By: Roy Y.J. Chua and S Iyengar

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Theory; Organizations

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January 2014
Other Article

The Answer is 9,142: Understanding the Influence of Disruption Risk on Inventory Decision Making

By: Mark Cotteleer, Maria Ibanez and Geri Gibbons

The question was how many units of inventory a manager should order when faced with a possible disruption in supply. The correct answer is not guesswork, but based on 150 years of theory and practice. We examine individual choices made in this critical situation—and... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral; Behavioral Operations; Inventory; Bias; Operations Management; Operations

October 2013
Case

Decision Making at the Top: The All-Star Sports eBusiness Division

By: David A. Garvin and Michael A. Roberto

Describes a senior management team's strategic decision-making process. The division president faces three options for redesigning the process to address several key concerns. The president has extensive quantitative and qualitative data about the process to guide him... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Management Teams; Performance Improvement; Planning; Mathematical Methods; Strategy

October 2021 (Revised June 2022)
Case

PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

By: Ayelet Israeli

PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

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Article

When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs

By: Eva Ascarza, Anja Lambrecht and Naufel Vilcassim

In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. In contrast with two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that the attributes... View Details

Keywords: Pricing; Nonlinear Pricing; Discrete/continuous Choice Model; Three-part Tariffs; Free Products; Price; Consumer Behavior; Analysis; Learning; Risk and Uncertainty

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October 2018
Article

Strategy and the Strategist: How it Matters Who Develops the Strategy

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper addresses primarily two questions. First, when (and why) should a company’s strategy be developed by its CEO versus by some outside analyst or other insider? Second, how does strategy interact with vision (in the sense of a strong belief about the right... View Details

Keywords: Strategy And Leadership; Strategy And Execution; Strategy; Leadership

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Article

Creativity As a Matter of Choice: Prior Experience and Task Instruction As Boundary Conditions for the Positive Effect of Choice on Creativity

By: Roy Y.J. Chua and S. Iyengar

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Creativity; Information; Outcome or Result

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October 1997 (Revised May 1998)
Case

Decision Making at the Top: The All-Star Sports Catalog Division

By: David A. Garvin and Michael Roberto

Describes a senior management team's strategic decision-making process. The division president faces three options for redesigning the process to address several key concerns. The president has extensive quantitative and qualitative data about the process to guide him... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Management Teams; Performance Improvement; Planning; Mathematical Methods; Strategy

Article

The Effect of Providing Peer Information on Retirement Savings Decisions

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Katherine L. Milkman

Using a field experiment in a 401(k) plan, we measure the effect of disseminating information about peer behavior on savings. Low-saving employees received simplified plan enrollment or contribution increase forms. A randomized subset of forms stated the fraction of... View Details

Keywords: Saving; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement

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May 2017
Article

Experimental Evidence of Pooling Outcomes Under Information Asymmetry

By: William Schmidt and Ryan W. Buell

Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less-informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a tradeoff between making an optimal decision and... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Decision Research; Information Asymmetry; Signaling; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alignment

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June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
Case

Revlon India's Turnaround: Navigating Online-Offline Decisions Using a Balanced Scorecard

By: Tatiana Sandino and Samuel Grad

Revlon India was founded as a joint venture in 1995, pairing the industrial conglomerate UMG with the global beauty brand Revlon, Inc. to bring international color cosmetics to India. After growing rapidly and pioneering the Beauty Advisor (BA) model in India, the... View Details

February 1995
Article

Does Familiarity Breed Trust? The Implications of Repeated Ties on Contractual Choice in Alliances

By: Ranjay Gulati

Keywords: Trust; Contracts; Decision Choices and Conditions; Alliances

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3 Aug 2007 - 8 Aug 2007
Conference Presentation

Strong leaders empower less? The curvilinear effects of empowerment through choice on leadership perceptions

By: Roy Y.J. Chua and S. S. Iyengar

Keywords: Leadership; Decision Choices and Conditions; Perception

2017
Working Paper

Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France

By: Vincent Pons

This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in François Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; France

October 2021 (Revised March 2022)
Supplement

PittaRosso: Artificial Intelligence-Driven Pricing and Promotion

By: Ayelet Israeli and Fabrizio Fantini

PittaRosso, a traditional Italian shoe retailer, is implementing an AI system to provide pricing and promotion recommendations. The system allows them to implement changes that would affect both the top of funnel and bottom of funnel activities for the company: once... View Details

February 2018
Case

EmQuest: Travel Distribution in the Digital Era

By: Karim R. Lakhani and Gamze Yucaoglu

EmQuest, Emirates Group’s travel distribution company, must decide what to do with its contract with the global distribution system it uses, Sabre. Since its founding in 1988, EmQuest was servicing travel agents in the MENA region by providing a connection to over 400... View Details

Keywords: UAE; Decision; Business Model; Competitive Strategy; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Business Strategy; Value Creation; Change Management; Emerging Markets; For-Profit Firms; Competitive Advantage; Travel Industry; United Arab Emirates

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