Publications

April 12, 2022
Article

Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

By: Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Michael Lingzhi Li and et al.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Forecasting and Prediction; Health Pandemics; Mathematical Methods; Partners and Partnerships

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Research Summary

Entrepreneurial Management

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Howard H. Stevenson is researching and writing on the need for and consequences of predictability. In work designed for a managerial audience, he is examining the roles played by organizations, cultures, and ethical systems in enabling individuals to predict the... View Details

20 Oct 2011
Research & Ideas

Getting the Marketing Mix Right

their FSL model, however, the results provided much greater detail about the potential effects of different marketing investments. For example, the model predicted that sales gains from DTCA and M&E would come primarily through... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

14 Mar 2023
Cold Call Podcast

Can AI and Machine Learning Help Park Rangers Prevent Poaching?

Keywords: Re: Brian L. Trelstad; Computer; Information Technology; Technology

17 Dec 2020
Research & Ideas

The 10 Most Popular Stories of 2020

about the most interesting business trends of the year, and your predictions for 2021. Top 10 most popular stories Merck CEO Ken Frazier Discusses a COVID Cure, Racism, and Why Leaders Need to Walk the Talk Ken Frazier, one of only four... View Details

Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman

07 Apr 2003
Research & Ideas

Three Steps for Crisis Prevention

to actually mobilizing the resources required to stop it. We term this the "RPM process": recognition, prioritization, mobilization. Failure at any of these three stages will leave a company vulnerable to potentially devastating View Details

Keywords: by Michael D. Watkins & Max H. Bazerman

January 1995
Background Note

A Note on Distribution of Venture Investments

By: Josh Lerner

Venture capitalists typically exit investments by distributing shares to investors. These transfers pose challenges for these investors. Predictions and evidence about the behavior of stock prices of firms around the time of these distributions are presented. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Stocks; Investment; Price

2023
Working Paper

New Facts and Data about Professors and Their Research

By: Kyle Myers, Wei Yang Tham, Jerry Thursby, Marie Thursby, Nina Cohodes, Karim R. Lakhani, Rachel Mural and Yilun Xu

We introduce a new survey of professors at roughly 150 of the most research-intensive institutions of higher education in the US. We document seven new features of how research-active professors are compensated, how they spend their time, and how they perceive their... View Details

Keywords: Research; Higher Education; Compensation and Benefits; Measurement and Metrics; Equality and Inequality; Performance Productivity

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

05 Aug 2024
Research & Ideas

Watching for the Next Economic Downturn? Follow Corporate Debt

What really fuels a boom-and-bust cycle in the modern global economy? It’s not always household debt, says a new paper that parses in-depth data across 115 countries. Instead, rising corporate debt may flash the clearest warning that a fiscal crisis is on the horizon.... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

December 2019
Case

Forecasting ClimaCell

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett

A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details

Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy

Educators

2019
Working Paper

Soul and Machine (Learning)

By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan

Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning

SSRN

December 2015
Article

What Is Disruptive Innovation?

By: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Raynor and Rory McDonald

For the past 20 years, the theory of disruptive innovation has been enormously influential in business circles and a powerful tool for predicting which industry entrants will succeed. Unfortunately, the theory has also been widely misunderstood, and the "disruptive"... View Details

Keywords: Disruptive Innovation; Theory

2017
Working Paper

Investment Timing with Costly Search for Financing

By: Samuel Antill

I develop a dynamic model of investment timing in which firms must first choose when to search for external financing. Search is costly and the arrival of investors is uncertain, leading to delay in financing and investment. Depending on parameters, my model can... View Details

Keywords: Real Options; Search And Bargaining; Time-varying Financial Conditions; Investment; Venture Capital; Mathematical Methods

SSRN

August 2018 (Revised April 2019)
Supplement

Chateau Winery (B): Supervised Learning

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case builds directly on “Chateau Winery (A).” In this case, Bill Booth, marketing manager of a regional wine distributor, shifts to supervised learning techniques to try to predict which deals he should offer to customers based on the purchasing behavior of those... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Clustering; Analytics and Data Science; Customers; Marketing; Analysis

Research Summary

Making Machine Learning Models Interpretable

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju

I work on developing various tools and methodologies which can help decision makers (e.g., doctors, managers) to better understand the predictions of machine learning models. View Details

December 2020 (Revised March 2022)
Teaching Note

Forecasting ClimaCell

By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett

A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details

Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Startups; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy; United States; Israel; Massachusetts; Colorado

Article

Measuring Audit Quality

By: Shivaram Rajgopal, Suraj Srinivasan and Xin Zheng

In this paper, we document 45 specific allegations related to audit deficiencies based on GAAS, as detailed in 141 AAERs and 153 securities class action lawsuits over the violation years 1978–2016. Next, we use these allegations to validate existing popular proxies of... View Details

Keywords: Audit Quality; Audit Deficiency; AAER; Securities Class Action Lawsuits; Enforcement; Accounting Audits; Quality; Measurement and Metrics

SSRN